Recently, the trend of scrap steel looks at the snail does not seem to be very smart, in recent days the snail continued to weaken, the snail fell from the highest point of 4076 to today's lowest point of 3920, a full ** 156 points, but the scrap market is still relatively strong, this week scrap ** overall is still ** dominant. In particular, the Sha Laoda base is generally **, and many first-line steel companies have also **20 50 or so, the market atmosphere is hot, and many undecided businesses are a little confused
Not really, just lately, a little special :
First of all, in December, some blast furnace plants began to plan winter storage in advance, and the daily consumption of electric furnace plants generally increased, and the demand for scrap steel increased significantly
Since the end of November into December, blast furnace plants around the country began to discuss and study the winter storage plan, some blast furnace plants have begun to implement the winter storage program, taking Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai as an example, there are about 10 steel enterprises to start the winter storage target of 5 100,000, about 15 have winter storage intentions, there is no winter storage program, the rest is still studying, it is clear that there are only 3 of the current winter storage, at the same time, the daily consumption of the electric furnace in the fourth quarter has risen significantly, and some electric furnace plants have risen many times, with an average increase of 300 With a significant amount of 600 tonnes and a significant number of factors, the demand for scrap procurement has increased significantly in the near future.
The daily consumption data of 255 steel mills increased significantly
Secondly, although the domestic demand for steel has not increased significantly, the export volume has continued to increase, which is good for finished products.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs at the end of last week, China exported 800 steel products in November 202350,000 tons, an increase of 6 from the previous month60,000 tons, an increase of 08%；From January to November, a total of 8265 steel products were exported80,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 356%。In November, China imported 61 steel products40,000 tons, a decrease of 5 from the previous month40,000 tons, down 81%；From January to November, a total of 698 steel products were imported00,000 tons, down 29 percent year-on-year2%。Exports remain high and the demand outlook is positive. According to the data of the China Iron and Steel Association, in late November 2023, the daily output of crude steel of iron and steel enterprises will be 201610,000 tons, an increase of 239%, pig iron Nissan 187450,000 tons, an increase of 103%。It can be seen that the current international situation has greatly stimulated domestic steel exports, so although the snail is weak recently, the overall range is average, and the overall expectation is still good. The best news is still macro to stimulate growth, and it is easy to rise and fall in the short term.
To sum up, the weak snail is more of a short-term adjustment, far less than the demand gap for scrap steel, it can be seen through the data terminal of Fubao information, the arrival of each plant has not increased significantly, although the recent scrap output may increase slightly, but the current situation of resource shortage has not changed significantly, and the inventory of steel mills is still a downward trend. In the future, as the cold air goes south, affecting logistics, the phenomenon of grabbing goods in various factories may escalate, and the bargaining space for scrap steel will continue to expand