Lead. At the end of the year, the tail-end effect of the land market was highlighted, and the transaction scale of the land market increased sharply in December.
As of December 25, the scale of operating land transactions in 300 cities across the country in December was 3300 million square meters, the first year-on-year positive since the second half of the year. The annual land market transaction floor area was 12800 million square meters, a decrease of 20% compared with the same period in 2022, and the total transaction scale has refreshed a new low in the past decade. In terms of popularity, the average premium rate in December was 28%, down 08 percentage points, a new monthly low in 2023. In terms of cities, only Hangzhou, Chengdu, Shanghai, Changsha and other cities can still maintain a certain degree of popularity, while Wuhan, Tianjin, Ningbo, Nanjing and other cities have zero premium for land auctions in the month.
Key takeaways: · Supply and demand: The amount of land ** in December was 0900 million square meters, with the passing of the traditional peak period of land ** at the end of October and November, the scale of land supply in December decreased significantly. Land Transaction 3300 million square meters, the first year-on-year positive since the second half of 2023.
Popularity: The average premium rate of land auctions in key cities in the month was 28%, a new monthly low in 2023, and only Hangzhou and Chengdu have an average premium rate of more than 5% in the first and second tiersThe land unsold rate is 86%, also a new low in the year, Yangzhou has the largest number of unsold plots, with 21 plots unbid.
Distribution: The performance of each energy level is different: the transaction scale and transaction value of first-tier cities increased sharply year-on-year, and the transaction scale and value of second- and third-tier cities decreased year-on-year. Due to the fact that there are a number of residential land auctions in the four first-tier cities, the transaction scale this month reached 3.55 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 424%, and a year-on-year increase of 32%.The turnover was 57.5 billion yuan, up 506% month-on-month and 34% year-on-year.
Outlook for the market. Under the pressure of real estate enterprises' funds, the price limit relaxation has little effect.
In 2024, the market heat will continue to be low.
At the end of the year, the tail-end effect of the land market was highlighted, and the transaction scale of the land market increased sharply in December. Specifically, as of December 25, the transaction area of commercial construction land nationwide reached 3300 million square meters, a slight increase of 4% over the same period last year. In terms of popularity, by the time of writing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Changsha, Xi'an and other cities had held local auctions within the month, with an average premium rate of 28%, down 08 percentage points, a new monthly low in 2023. From the perspective of cities, only Hangzhou, Chengdu, Shanghai, Changsha and other cities can still maintain a certain degree of popularity, while Wuhan, Tianjin, Ningbo, Nanjing and other cities have zero premium for land auctions in the month.
The reason for this is that although the "price limit" has been cancelled to retain sufficient profits for developers and mobilize their enthusiasm for land acquisition, the land auction market has become excessively market-orientedHowever, considering the different location conditions and land values of different plots, even if the profit expectation is better, at the moment when the funds of real estate enterprises are under pressure, a good speed of payment collection and decentralization expectations are particularly important, and only a few core plots can maintain a high premium, and other plots with average qualifications are still mainly traded at the reserve price. From this point of view, the overall low level of local auction popularity will continue in 2024.
Supply and demand. The scale of land supply fell to the lowest level in the year.
The transaction scale returned to positive year-on-year.
In terms of land**, as of December 25, 2023, the amount of land** this month is 0900 million square meters, a significant decrease from the previous month. With the passing of the traditional peak period of land ** at the end of October and November, the scale of land supply in December has decreased significantly, and the year-on-year decline has also expanded to about 30%. The increase in the year-on-year decline in the scale of land supply is due to the stable development of the industry and the demand for controlling the scale of inventory, on the other hand, it is also due to the surge in the scale of land ** in November 2023, and the announcement of land supply at the end of the year will be released in November. In terms of first-tier cities, only Shanghai had three residential land parcels this month**, all of which were located in relatively remote suburbs, and there were no new residential plots in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen**. In terms of second-tier cities, no city added more than 4 million square meters of land supply in the month, a significant decline compared with the scale of land supply in November, of which Wuhan had the highest land supply, with 3.56 million square meters of new land added in the month.
In terms of land transactions, as of December 25, 300 cities across the country had 3300 million square meters, a significant increase of 80% month-on-month, and a year-on-year return to positive for the first time since the second half of 2023. On the one hand, this is due to the significant increase in the scale of local land supply in November, and on the other hand, it is also related to the recent direction of regulation and control of ** ministries and commissions, and the financing channels of the industry have improved. Among the first- and second-tier cities, as of the deadline, Changsha, Xi'an, Chengdu, Wuhan, Tianjin, Zhengzhou and other cities have exceeded 2 million square meters of transaction area this month. In terms of third- and fourth-tier cities, Xuzhou, Changzhou, Huai'an and other cities also reached more than 1 million square meters in the month. The average floor price in the month was 2,678 yuan square meters, and with the rebound in the proportion of transactions in first- and second-tier cities, the average transaction price was also **, but it was still at a low level in the year.
The annual land market transaction floor area was 12800 million square meters, a decrease of 20% compared with the same period in 2022, and the total transaction scale has refreshed a new low in the past decade. Transaction amount39 trillion yuan, down 18% year-on-year, declining for three consecutive years. Against the backdrop of the downward trend in the transaction scale of the new housing market, in order to promote the recovery of the balance between supply and demand in the industry, it is expected that the transaction scale of the land market will remain low for several years.
Heat. The unsold auction and premium both hit a new low in the year.
The characteristics of the indicator bottoming are revealed.
In terms of market heat, by the time of writing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Changsha, Xi'an and other cities had held local auctions within the month, with an average premium rate of 2 in December8%, down 08 percentage points, a new monthly low in 2023. Although the scale of land transactions increased sharply during the month, and the financing of enterprises also improved, the proportion of land plots of average quality also increased due to the tail end of the year, and the confidence of enterprises in land acquisition has not yet fully stabilized, and the monthly premium rate still hit a new low in the year. From the perspective of cities, only Hangzhou, Chengdu, Shanghai, Changsha and other cities can still maintain a certain degree of popularity, while Wuhan, Tianjin, Ningbo, Nanjing and other cities have zero premium for land auctions in the month.
In terms of quarters, the premium rate continued to decline in the second half of the year;Especially in the fourth quarter, after the land price limit was relaxed, the premium rate was still hovering at a low level, and the premium rate was only 33%。The reason for this is that although the "price limit" has been cancelled to retain sufficient profits for developers and mobilize their enthusiasm for land acquisition, the land auction market has become excessively market-orientedHowever, considering the different location conditions and land values of different plots, even if the profit expectation is better, at the moment when the funds of real estate enterprises are under pressure, a good speed of payment collection and decentralization expectations are particularly important, and only a few core plots can maintain a high premium, and other plots with average qualifications are still mainly traded at the reserve price. Therefore, it is not surprising that the premium rate will continue to be low.
The unsold land auction rate in December was 86%, a further decline of 24 percentage points, also a new low for the year. The low level of both the premium rate and the unsold rate shows that although the current land market is still at a low level, the relationship between supply and demand has been further balanced, and the land market has completed an important step of phased bottoming. In terms of land attributes, 63% of the unsold land contains residential land, and the proportion of unsold land with residential land has further decreased. According to city statistics, Yangzhou had the largest number of unsold plots in the month, with 21 plots unbid, of which 7 were residential land, but in the same month, 5 residential plots sold in Yangzhou Jiangdu District also had a high premium of 50%, and the hot and cold plots were significantly differentiated.
Key plots. Shanghai won the top 4 of the two lists
Shanghai Chengtou shakes the Yangpu Pingliang Bridge plot.
In December 2023, due to the centralized transaction of residential land in the four first-tier cities, the quality of land supply has improved, so the top of the two lists and the threshold for entering the list have been increased to a certain extent this month. The top plot in the total price list is from Nanxiang, Jiading, Shanghai, which is a pure residential plot with a total transaction price of 89100 million yuan, won by China Resources & Huafa;Ranked first.
The second, third and fourth places are also from Shanghai, of which the third place in Putuo North Xinjing land was won by Yuexiu at the highest price limit, with a total transaction price of 478.5 billion yuan.
The top plot of the unit price list is also from Shanghai, the plot is located in Yangpu District Pingliang Community Bridge Street, adjacent to the Inner Ring Elevated, only 200 meters away from Bailian Binjiang Shopping Center, the geographical location is better, the place has attracted Poly Development, China Construction Eighth Bureau, Shanghai Urban Investment, Shanghai Urban Construction four real estate companies to participate in the auction, after 29 rounds of bidding, the highest price limit of 126378 million yuan into the bidding high-quality construction ring, 3 real estate bidders per capita accept the upper limit of green building two-star and zero-energy building and 7% The upper limit ratio of public rental housing entered the lottery link, and was finally won by Shanghai Chengtou with 126.4 billion yuan was shaken, and the transaction floor price was 76,803 yuan, with a premium rate of 972%。It is worth noting that due to the centralized land auction of many land parcels in Shanghai this month, the unit price list was almost occupied by Shanghai, occupying 8 seats, and the other two seats were from Nanjing.
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Article**: Kerry