Lead. In December, it is expected that the volume will drive the transaction "tail", and the annual scale may drop by 5-10%.
In November, the low level rebounded, and the transaction fell after the concentrated volume in October: the key 30 cities **month-on-month**30%. Transactions decreased by 12% month-on-month, 3% year-on-year, and 2% year-on-year. The first-line transaction volume is smaller than that of the second-line month-on-month, but the cumulative year-on-year growth of the second-line still maintains a positive increase. The cities fell more than they rose month-on-month, and only a few cities such as Chengdu, Xi'an, and Hangzhou remained firm. Second-hand housing transactions increased by 4% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year, and the resilience is still better than that of new homes. However, the scale and volume of land transactions fell at parity, and the premium rate was only 37% was the second lowest in the year.
New**. It increased by 30% month-on-month and still fell 23% year-on-year
Beijing-Shanghai pickaxe volume.
In November, 30 key cities added 12.65 million square meters, an increase of 30% month-on-month, showing that the enthusiasm of real estate companies to push goods has increased slightly near the performance sprint period, down 23% year-on-year, and is still the lowest in the same period in the past five years, almost only three percent of the high point in the same period in 2019.
The first line has improved, and the volume of Beijing and Shanghai has increased significantly. The overall area of the four first-tier cities is expected to be 2.63 million square meters, an increase of 44% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 14%. The volume of Beijing and Shanghai is particularly obvious, compared with the average monthly volume in the previous 11 months, an increase of 3 percent, Beijing's peak period and trough period alternately, this month coincides with the first peak, the scale doubled month-on-month, Shanghai 11 batches of new projects were launched as scheduled, the scale of the first volume further increased, and exceeded 1 million square meters. In contrast, although the lower base of Guangzhou and Shenzhen** improved last month, it was still less than the monthly average, and the degree of volume was relatively limited.
Second- and third-tier cities** are growing steadily. The 26 key second- and third-tier cities totaled 10.02 million square meters, an increase of 27% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 24%. On a month-on-month basis, the scale of more than 8 cities has bottomed out, Chengdu, Xi'an and other cities have returned to more than one million square meters, and Suzhou, Foshan, Kunming and other cities have doubled due to their low base. However, Hefei, Chongqing, Dongguan and other cities are still weak, shrinking by about 10% month-on-month. On a year-on-year basis, only 9 cities were higher than the same period last year, and Nanjing, Wuhan, Changsha and other cities fell by more than 40%.
New homes are sold. It decreased by 12% quarter-on-quarter, but was still higher than the monthly average in the third quarter.
The cumulative year-on-year growth rate remained positive by 2%.
In November, the overall transaction heat was stable and declined, and the bottom continued to be built**. According to CRIC monitoring, the transaction area of 30 key cities in November was 12.61 million square meters, down 12% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year. In the first 11 months, the cumulative year-on-year increase was slightly 172%, the growth rate continued to narrow by 04 percentage points.
The popularity of first-tier cities has declined, with a year-on-year decline of about 10% in November, and a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1% in the first 11 months. Transactions in Beijing and Shanghai fell month-on-month, continuing the downward trend of the previous month. Shanghai this month coincided with the end of the ten batches and the eleventh batch of concentrated entry into the market, and the volume of more than one million square meters did not drive the transaction to rebound, but fell again and again, which is less than the monthly average in 2023, and the cumulative year-on-year decline continues to expand to 9%. In the early stage, the de-conversion rate of hot spots also has a downward trend: for example, Minhang District has always been a popular and preferred place for new home customers with a budget of 6 million to 8 million, but recently due to the repeated entry of a number of projects into the market, the diversion is serious, such as the previously popular Huacao and Xinzhuang plates, which have also failed to achieve daylight this time, and the de-industrialization is about 8%. Although the transaction volume in Guangzhou decreased month-on-month, the cumulative year-on-year increase was still 8%, and the market is still in a slow recovery. Shenzhen continued to be at a low level, with a year-on-year increase of more than 15%, and the transaction in the first 11 months was basically the same as last year.
The transaction volume in second- and third-tier cities fell month-on-month, with a decline exceeding that of the first-tier city, and the cumulative year-on-year growth remained positive. According to the performance of different cities, it can be roughly divided into the following categories: First, Chengdu, Xi'an, and Hangzhou are hot spots, mainly due to the continuous fermentation of the new deal + high-quality ** centralized market to drive the demand for rigid reform and high reform into the market, and the central urban improvement project is significantly better than the peripheral rigid demand. Second, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Changchun, etc. continued to build bottoming**, with month-on-month declines of less than 5%. Third, Wuhan, Changsha, Chongqing, Xuzhou, Fuzhou experienced a concentrated volume in October, this month's transaction was sharply **, the decline was about 50%, in fact, most cities in late October project visits, to go to the downward trend, at the same time, in the early stage of Wuhan, Changsha and other parts of the real estate discount sales ushered in the old owners to protect their rights, the price for volume strategy was suspended is also a factor that led to the decline in transactions. It is worth noting that Foshan, Dongguan, Zhuhai and other Bay Area cities have rebounded slightly this month, but they are still in the bottoming stage from the cumulative year-on-year perspective, and their purchasing power has not yet been fully restored.
Project decentralization. The average decontamination rate decreased by 2pcts to 40%.
The long-term popularity of Shanghai and Hangzhou continued to fall.
According to CRIC survey data, the average opening rate of key cities in November was 40%, down 2 percentage points from the previous month. In November, the transaction momentum continued to slow down, and the micro-project experience was consistent with the downward trend of the transaction. Although this month is still a favorable period for the continuous release of loose policies, and the transaction volume continues to increase, from the perspective of project micro data, the marginal effect of policy on market promotion is decreasing.
At present, in November, the de-industrialization rate of various cities fell more than the previous month, and the ** cities are mainly divided into two categories: first, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Changsha, etc., which are hot spots in the early stage, and the marginal effect of the policy is decreasing, and the de-industrialization rate is decreasing. Second, Suzhou, Ningbo, Xiamen and other supply-oriented cities, due to the scarcity of improvement in the short term, the overall recovery momentum is slightly insufficient. However, a small number of cities with the highest de-occupation rate, such as Chengdu and Beijing, are constantly hot, and the demand for self-occupation supports the high level of de-urbanization projects.
Inventory. Supply and demand returned to balance, and inventories were flat sequentially.
7 percent of the city's digestion cycle is more than 18 months.
In November, the overall supply-demand ratio of 30 monitored cities rebounded, from 068 to 101, supply and demand have returned to equilibrium, especially in Beijing, Wuhan, Foshan and other cities. Affected by this, the inventory area of 30 key cities was basically the same as that of the previous month, with a slight increase of 004%。
The digestion cycle is mixed month-on-month, Xi'an, Chengdu and other inventory contraction superimposed on the transaction strengthened, the digestion cycle is significantly shortened, Shanghai, Hefei and other digestion cycles are slightly elongated, but still far below the warning line, inventory digestion is safe, but Wuhan, Qingdao and other cities, although the inventory scale is shrinking, but due to the sluggish transaction, the digestion cycle does not decline but increases.
Second-hand housing. The transaction volume increased by 4% and 22% year-on-year, respectively
Ningsu Shen rebounded, and Qinghang turned down.
In November, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 key cities is expected to be 6.82 million square meters, an increase of 4% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year. In the first 11 months, the cumulative transaction volume of second-hand houses was 77.18 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 32%. In the absence of good stimulus, the second-hand housing transactions in key cities are likely to remain stable at the end of the year.
On a month-on-month basis, key cities were mixed, Nanjing, Suzhou, etc. led the rise, with a transaction growth rate of nearly 2 percent, Shenzhen and Beijing grew steadily, with an increase of more than 10%, taking Shenzhen as an example, this month to reduce the down payment ratio of the second suite, adjust the standard of ordinary housing, reduce the threshold of the second set of home ownership and the tax burden of second-hand housing transactions, which is conducive to promoting the transaction of second-hand housing, especially in the middle and high total price segment. Qingdao and Hangzhou ** are obvious, down about 2% month-on-month, showing that the effectiveness of the new policy in the early stage has weakened, and the second-hand housing market has returned to cold. Year-on-year, under the background of the low base of the same period last year, more than 7 percent of the city's transaction scale is growing, especially in Chengdu, Shenzhen, etc., the improvement is obvious, the transaction growth rate reached about 50%, but Dongguan, Xiamen is still not as good as the same period last year, especially Xiamen, the second-hand housing market continues to be sluggish, and the first 11 months have maintained negative year-on-year growth.
Land market. The transaction volume decreased by 36% year-on-year and the decline expanded.
The premium rate is still at the second lowest level in the year.
As of November 26, the transaction scale of operating land in 300 cities across the country was 1100 million square meters, flat compared with the same period last month, down 36% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline expanded significantly. In terms of popularity, although Chengdu, Hefei, Jinan and other cities canceled the price limit of land auctions during the month, the overall premium rate in November still only increased slightly month-on-month, only 37%, the second lowest since 2023. The unsold rate for the month was 119%, basically flat month-on-month;Among them, Fuzhou has the largest number of unsold plots, with 10 plots failing to bid or withdrawing.
The performance of cities of all energy levels was consistent, and the transaction scale and transaction value both decreased year-on-year, among which the first-tier cities had the worst decline, with a year-on-year decline of more than 80%. CRIC monitoring data shows that as of November 26, a total of 480,000 square meters of land was traded in first-tier cities this month, a sharp decrease of 90% from the previous monthThe turnover was 5.6 billion yuan, down 95% month-on-month. The reason for this is mainly due to the fact that there are no residential land auctions in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen this month, and only two residential lands in Daxing and Huairou were traded at the reserve price in Beijing, with a total transaction area of 190,000 square meters and a total transaction value of 3.4 billion yuanShanghai and Guangzhou respectively transacted commercial and office plots, both at the reserve price;There were zero transactions in Shenzhen this month.
The transaction scale of second-tier cities decreased year-on-year. Specifically, as of the 26th, the transaction area in second-tier cities was 18.3 million square meters, down 8% month-on-monthThe year-on-year decline was relatively prominent, reaching 22%. Affected by the contraction of transaction area, the transaction value also decreased, down 7% month-on-month to 93 billion yuan. The floor price was basically the same as last month, at 5,082 square meters. In terms of specific cities, there are four cities of Changsha, Hefei, Xi'an and Fuzhou with a transaction area of more than one million square meters, and Changsha has a transaction area of 1.92 million square meters, with a total of 3.9 billion yuan, involving a total of 23 residential landsIn terms of popularity, except for 1 commercial land parcel with a low premium, the rest of the plots were traded at the reserve price. Hefei, which ranks second, has only 1.84 million square meters of transaction area, involving 15 parcels of land, with an overall premium rate of 19%, ranking first in the market popularity in second-tier cities. In addition, after the cancellation of the "double limit", the popularity of land auctions in Chengdu and Fuzhou is also at a relatively high level, with a premium rate of 10%. Taking Chengdu as an example, 4 of the 7 parcels of land listed on it were transacted at the reserve price and 3 were transacted at a premium. The premium rate of Wanjiawan plot in Qingyang Caiqiao Street and Huaishudian plot in Chenghua District is over 15%, especially in Wanjiawan plot of Qingyang Caiqiao Street, which is particularly hot, refreshing the new high price of floor slabs in Qingyang District. The popularity of land auctions in other cities is low, and the premium rate is below 3%.
Third- and fourth-tier cities showed a decline in volume and price. As of November 26, the total transaction area was 92.17 million square meters, a slight decrease of 1% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 39%. Among the third- and fourth-tier cities monitored by CRIC key cities, Yancheng, Xuzhou, Huai'an, Yangzhou and Nantong have a transaction scale of more than 1 million square meters, with Yancheng topping the list with a transaction area of 3.44 million square meters, followed by Xuzhou with a transaction area of 2.42 million square meters.
The third and fourth places are Huai'an, Yangzhou and Nantong, with a transaction area of 1.07 million square meters respectively. From a regional point of view, the third- and fourth-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta are still the main force of transactions;In terms of popularity, Yancheng, Xuzhou, Huai'an, Yangzhou, Nantong, Changzhou, Jiangyin, Suqian and other Yangtze River Delta are mainly traded at the floor price, and the market heat has dropped to a low level.
Overview. In December, it is expected that the first volume will drive the transaction "tail".
The annual scale may drop by 5-10%.
In November, as expected by the market, the downward trend was maintained, and the volume did not drive the transaction to rebound, instead, the overall market heat fell further, and the first-line transaction was smaller than the second-line month-on-month, but the second-line cumulative year-on-year growth still maintained a positive increase. Only a few cities such as Chengdu, Xi'an, Hangzhou, etc., have been driven by the continuous fermentation of the new policy + high-quality ** centralized entry into the market. Most cities such as Wuhan, Changsha, Chongqing, Xuzhou, and Fuzhou experienced a concentrated increase in volume in October, and the transaction volume this month was steady**, with a decline of about 50%.
Predicting next month, we believe that December coincides with the sprint season of real estate enterprise performance, ** is expected to continue to rise, and it is not excluded that some real estate companies will carry out year-end promotions for sprint performance, considering this impact, it is expected that the overall transaction is expected to stop falling and rebound month-on-month, but the increase is expected to be between 5% and 10%, and the cumulative decline in transactions throughout the year is expected to be 5%-10%. Urban differentiation is expected to continue, in the short term, the hot spots of Chengdu, Xi'an, Hangzhou and other hot spots will continue, Shanghai, Beijing, etc. will maintain stable operation, Nanjing, Wuhan, Suzhou and other core first- and second-tier cities are expected to usher in a round of volume at the end of the year, and most cities will continue to build the bottom, the end of the year "tail" growth is limited.
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Article**: Kerry