On December 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data, in November 2023, the national household consumption ** index (CPI) decreased by 05%, also down 05%。The reporter of "Daily Economic News" noticed that the CPI fell by 0 year-on-year last time5% occurred in November 2020. This also means that the CPI in November 2023 recorded the largest decline in three years. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the same day showed that in November, the national industrial producers** index (PPI) fell by 3 percent year-on-year0%, down 03%。
Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in November, affected by factors such as the downward fluctuation of food and energy, the CPI declined;Core CPI, excluding food and energy**, was 0 YoY6%, the same increase as the previous month, continued to be modest**.
Source**: CEIC (Hong Kong Uniasia Economic Data*** Western ** R&D Center Yang Jing Mapping, Visual China Map.
Pork ** fell 318%
In November 2023, the national household consumption** decreased by 05%。Among them, the city fell by 04%, down 08%；Food** down 42%, non-food ***04%；Consumer goods** decreased by 14%, service ***10%。
Dong Lijuan explained that from a year-on-year perspective, CPI fell by 05%, a decrease of 03 percentage points, mainly related to the expansion of the decline in food and energy.
From the perspective of food, food in November fell by 4% year-on-year2%, a decrease of 02 percentage points. Among them, pork ** fell by 318%, the decline expanded by 17 percentage points, affecting the CPI to drop by about 058 percentage points.
After May this year, pork ** entered a year-on-year downward range, and after entering the second half of the year, the decline increased, and by November, pork ** fell by 318%, which became the largest decline in the year. Judging from the trend of the whole year, pork** will show a clear downward trend in 2023.
In addition, eggs, edible oil, beef and mutton, poultry meat and aquatic products** also fell more, with a decrease of 11% to 105% of the year, the decline has widened. In contrast, fresh vegetables** fell by 3 from the previous month8% to **06%；Fresh Fruit***27%, an increase of 05 percentage points.
From November, food ** fell by 4 year-on-yearAt 2%, the decline is the largest so far this year and the largest since October 2021, indicating that food** is still facing some downward pressure in the near term.
Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin**, believes that with the weakening of supply disturbances and the impact of the base, the CPI may rebound at the end of the year, but it is likely to remain in the negative range. Supply disturbances have been clearly reflected in prices in recent months, especially for some agricultural products, and the marginal drag on the base has been significantly eased. The flattening of the core CPI and the super-seasonal decline in CPI sub-items such as culture, education and entertainment reflect the relatively slow pace of terminal demand recovery to a certain extent, and the follow-up situation needs to be further tracked and observed.
The decline in PPI increased slightly
In November 2023, the national PPI fell by 30%, down 03%。Compared to the previous month, the year-on-year and month-on-month decline in PPI in November increased slightly.
Judging from the trend of the whole year, the year-on-year growth of the PPI in 2023 will show a trend of first falling and then rising. The decline gradually expanded from the relatively high at the beginning of the year, and reached the maximum value of the decline in June, which was a year-on-year decline of 54%, after which the decline picked up slightly, but the year-on-year decline widened again in October and November.
In November, the means of production ** decreased by 3 year-on-year4%, a decrease of 04 percentage points. Among the major industries, the oil and gas extraction industry increased by 1 month in the previous month7% turned into a decrease of 33%；Coal mining and washing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry** decreased by 63% to 158% of the declines;The manufacturing of chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry** declined respectively. 3%, the decline was narrower.
From the perspective of the equipment manufacturing industry, lithium-ion battery manufacturing fell by 116%, and the manufacturing of computer communications and other electronic equipment** fell by 35%, the automobile manufacturing industry ** fell by 16%。
The above data reflects the complex global economic situation, and the products of industrial enterprises are generally under pressure**. Among them, the decline in the means of production reflects the reduction of production costs or the intensification of market competition.
Zhao Wei believes that the main reason for the expansion of the PPI decline is the drag of the means of production, especially the performance of the upstream industry. In addition, the marginal weakening of the means of subsistence**.
From a month-on-month perspective, the recent decline in international oil prices has driven the domestic oil and gas extraction industry, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries to decline respectively. 5%, the total impact of PPI decreased by about 013 percentage points, accounting for more than 40% of the total decline.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that on the whole, the PPI decline in November expanded for the second consecutive month, and the overall decline was weaker than market expectations. On the one hand, the decline of international commodities to the domestic market is the main influencing factor;On the other hand, the recovery of domestic downstream demand has been repeated, which has also hindered the recovery of PPI to a certain extent. At the same time, the PPI rose month-on-month in the same period last year, which also raised the year-on-year base of this month.
Looking forward to the next stage, it is expected that the demand recovery trend of China's industrial enterprises will continue to be maintained during the year, but due to the weakening of external inflation input caused by the global economic slowdown, and the short-term recovery of external demand is relatively modest, it is expected that PPI will remain in the negative range or continue for more than half a year.
National Business Daily.