Approaching the New Year, the rapid rise of iron ore is remarkable.
On Tuesday, Singapore's iron ore** hit an 18-month high of $140 a tonne.
In terms of the domestic market, the iron ore main company of the Dalian ** exchange continued to rise sharply, once rising more than 2% in the intraday to approach the 1000 mark, and the ** increase fell back to 134% at 9835 yuan ton.
Why is iron ore so good?It is generally believed that the continuous force of macro policies has injected a boost into the steel market.
Comprehensive ** report,The early approval quota of trillion-level local bonds is expected to be issued this week. Jiangsu, Hebei, Shanxi, Hainan and other places are expected to issue more than 220 billion yuan of bonds in the first quarter. Previously, the Ministry of Finance clarified that this year will issue part of the new local ** debt quota in 2024 in advanceThe market generally expects that in 2024, the amount of new local ** debt will exceed 2 trillion yuan.
On the other hand, the policy side continues to make efforts to promote the recovery of the domestic economy through real estate, through the construction of "three major projects" such as affordable housing and urban village transformation, and the use of various financial tools to drive the demand for rigid housing and the release of demand for improved housing, and stimulate residents' consumption.
Stimulated by the good news from the macro economy, iron ore ** strengthened sharply.
* On the end, some analysts said that the current iron ore inventory level within steel mills is already very low, and the available days of most manufacturers are only about 15 days, and the inventory of some manufacturers is even lower. Major iron ore producing countries such as Australia and Brazil performed poorly in the third quarter, and the decline in foreign iron ore production led to low iron ore inventories in domestic ports and steel mills, which is difficult to change in the short term.
It is worth noting that since mid-August, domestic iron ore *** has climbed by 34%.
How is this possible with the global economic recovery sluggish, China's real estate market still in an adjustment cycle, and iron ore soaring by a third in four months?
BHP Chief Economist Huw McKay said recentlyThe reason why iron ore** remains high is because Chinese steel mills are producing a record 10 percent a year800 million tons, which further reflects the rising price of China's steel exports.
Customs data shows that in November, China exported 800 steel products50,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 432%, up 08%, which is the fourth time that the export in a single month jumped to 8 million tons in the year. From January to November, China exported 8265 steel products80,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 356%。
McKay believes that considering the continued recovery of foreign markets, which account for 65% of China's steel **, although the global economic recovery is slow, manufacturing and infrastructure investment are still growing normally, and the international steel market is still strong, further supporting the demand for iron ore.
At the ** end, the inventory is at a low level in recent years, which is the main reason for the increase in iron ore prices.
McKay said China's performance over the past five years has been less than expected, in large part due to tailings dam failures made by Brazil's Vale. This means that China's higher domestic iron ore production has won a larger share of the pie than expected.