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On the 17th, foreign media quoted the United States as saying that the Pentagon is considering striking at the military facilities of the Houthis in response to the increasing number of attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Previously, the United States claimed that it would set up a "special escalation multinational action group", but so far no one has responded, and there is no follow-up information. Could it be that the United States really wants to take a "lone wolf" action against the Houthis this time?In every military operation before this, it was rare not to pull a few helpers, but this time the situation was special, and even the allies did not want to get involved and did not want to go with the Americans. If the United States takes unilateral action to attack the Houthis, what are the odds of victory?
1. The proud "record" of the Houthis proves that Israel can be blockaded in the direction of the Red Sea
Since November, the Houthis have single-handedly "blockaded" Israel under the noses of the US military.
On November 19, the Houthis took Japan first when a Japanese car carrier with ties to Israel's tycoons was hijacked in the Red Sea, setting a precedent for Yemen's Houthi naval attacks on Israeli targets.
On November 27, Yemen's Houthi rebels directly launched two missiles to bomb the US destroyer "Mason" and the oil tanker "Park" in the waters near Yemen. The Americans said that the missile fell into the sea about 10 nautical miles from the ship, and there were no people**.
On December 3, the Houthis said they had launched attacks on two Israeli ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, one Unity Quest and the other Nine. The "Unity Explorer" cargo ship eventually sank after the rescue failed.
On December 4, Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked a U.S. and a British ship in the Red Sea, which caught fire and the British ship was seriously damaged.
On December 12, the Houthis claimed that their missiles had struck a Norwegian ship that was allegedly carrying oil bound for Israel.
On December 15, an unidentified attack on a British vessel located 60 nautical miles southwest of the port of Hodeidah, Yemen, resulted in ** on board.
On the 15th, the Houthis claimed to have fired ** missiles at the container ship "Alaniya" and the container ship "Paratyum-3", both of which were bound for Israel.
All this happened under the noses of the US military, but the US military only defended and did not attack. On December 16, the destroyer USS Carney shot down 14 drones launched from Yemen in the Red Sea, the Americans said. On December 4, the same USS Carney shot down three drones while providing assistance to a merchant ship in the Red Sea that had been attacked by Yemen.
The Americans finally couldn't stand it anymore, and on the 17th, the United States ** claimed that "the Pentagon is discussing the possibility of directly striking the military facilities of the Houthi rebels in Yemen." The United States is increasingly concerned that "the Houthis and their supporters in Tehran are trying to undermine the global seas."
Second, the Houthi attack on the ship is essentially a way to bring justice to the Palestinians
The Houthis have repeatedly warned that they will attack Israeli ships. The second is to attack ships coming and going to Israel. Third, ships associated with Israel in the past 12 months and now unrelated could also be targeted.
On December 9, the Houthis warned that they intended to attack any Israeli-linked vessels and called on other countries to remove their crews from these vessels and not to approach them at sea. The Houthis intercepted and dissuaded a number of ships bound for Israel, and some shipping companies decided to suspend navigation through the Red Sea.
In their statement, the Houthis made it clear that "we will continue to block all ships heading to Israeli ports until the food and medicine needed by the people of the Gaza Strip arrive." ”
The Houthis claimed not to attack other ships in normal transit, saying in a statement that "we assure all ships sailing to ports other than Israel that they will not be harmed." They must have the identification device turned on. ”
The Houthi blockade of the Red Sea is very clear: to get food and medicine for the people of the Gaza Strip, and they do not want to harm innocent people. What about the situation in Gaza now?
On December 11, under the leadership of the United Arab Emirates and Egypt**, China's Permanent Representative to the United Nations and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Zhang Jun visited the Arish and Rafah ports together with representatives of other Security Council member states. In the report, Zhang Jun pointed out: "The humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip has reached a point where it is difficult to describe in words. The spectacle that is presented to people is completely beyond the limits of human conscience, beyond the limits of the Charter of the United Nations, and beyond the limits of international law. Sadly, the killings continue and the Council has not been able to issue even the most basic calls for a ceasefire. ”
3. What are the chances of the United States winning the fight against the Houthis?
The international community is very angry that the United States insists on supporting Israel's behavior in the Gaza Strip, and the Americans know that they are at the loss, and in the face of the mass assault of various armed forces in the Middle East, the Americans are very low-key to avoid the expansion of the conflict.
On December 8, Iraqi Shiite militia Allah attacked U.S. military bases in Iraq.
On the 13th, the Iraqi militia armed "Islamic Resistance Group" launched a drone strike against two military bases in the Tanf area and the Rukhban area in southeastern Syria where US troops are stationed, and "directly hit" a number of targets in the base.
In response to this series of rocket attacks, the first is to express strong condemnation, the second is to claim that there will be a response, and the third is to claim that it did not hit. If it hits, it is claimed that there are no personnel**. The real situation is known only to the Americans themselves. Fourth, strengthen the security of bases in Iraq and Syria, including strengthening intelligence gathering, increasing base patrols, and conducting more intensive monitoring through drones and other equipment, but inevitably, the US military is still under attack, and personnel and facilities are still unsafe. Do you think it's funny?It is actually necessary to protect the US military base?None of the U.S. military can protect themselves, and who else will protect them?God forbid.
The Americans have to weigh the pros and cons of launching a strike, and if it starts to fight, it may lead to a "broader war against Iran and its people", and the US military in the Middle East may be caught in the vast sea of the Islamic world.
In the Middle East, the Americans hold "military hegemony" in their left hand and "dollar hegemony" in their right hand, which is too heavy, and they are unwilling to lose it, and there is no way out if they do not lose it.
First, the humanitarian catastrophe created by Israel is beyond the limits of human conscience, and protecting Israel is the enemy of the entire human society, even if it becomes the public enemy of the international community, it will not protect Israel.
Second, it is difficult to buy the Houthis with money. According to Iran, "these organizations make decisions and act in accordance with their own principles and priorities, as well as in the interests of the country and the people." Middle Eastern "resistance groups" such as Houthi supporters do not receive any instructions from Iran and do not obey Iran's orders.
Even if the Americans tried to buy them, it was probably useless, because they acted according to their principles, that is, the teachings of Islam, and they had "Allah (Allah)" in their hearts. Judaism, on the other hand, is fetishism, and on the contrary, it can destroy people's conscience for the sake of financial gain.
Third, in the era of big data, the US military's bases all over the Middle East are easy to attack and difficult to defend.
Fourth, the Houthis are invisible non-governmental organizations, and it is difficult to achieve political isolation and economic sanctions.
Fifth, it will trigger the concerted action of the "axis of resistance". The Houthis are just one of the "axis of resistance" that includes Allah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria, and Shiite militias established and trained by Iran in Syria, Hamas and Palestinian jihadist groups in Gaza, and several Shiite militias in Iraq. They are numerous and widely distributed, and the Americans simply do not have that many troops to "exterminate". And as long as they release a drone or launch a rocket launcher, they may cause huge damage to the US military base.
To sum up, the Americans really want to attack the Houthis, and there is no chance of victory, maybe the missiles hit a few tents, and the drones blew up a few pairs of slippers. But Americans have always pursued the principle of "if you don't try it, how do you know it won't work?".〞
Is it true that the Americans have no way out in the Middle East?This observer believes that as long as the Americans lose their hegemony and work with the international community to urge Israel to implement the two-state solution to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as soon as possible and achieve permanent peace in the Middle East, the international community will not rush to exterminate it, and the United States can also participate in the construction of the Middle East and the Belt and Road Initiative, after all, the entire human society is a community with a shared future.
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