The unexpected ending of pig prices in 2023 is unexpected!
Observations and expectations: Expectations for turning points and pig price recovery.
Expectations for the inflection point of pig prices have been high this year, especially in the first half of the year, there was a brief recovery, which makes the market full of confidence in the prospects of the inflection point of the pig market this year. Overall, the market expects a possible inflection point in June, and even the official has published an article bullish on pig prices for June**. However, the expected inflection point did not occur in June, and it was not until July that the pig market really began to turn. In July, pig prices broke through quickly"8 "The word is off, toward"9 "The word launched a competition. Although the trend is not strong, the national average price of live pigs is still there"8 "Yuan or so. Over time, the movement of pig prices in September was unexpected.
However, the ** pig price in September was not only slow, but clearly began to slow down. Pig prices have increased from the previous 85 yuan jin gradually converged to 8 yuan jin, and recently fell below 8 yuan. This wave of ** has a huge impact on the market. On the one hand, the end of September and the beginning of October are considered to be the best time for the market, and consumption will only be boosted due to the superposition of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day. On the other hand, entering the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for pork consumption, which is the period of the year when consumption peaks. However, during this peak season, pig prices unexpectedly fell below the 8 yuan threshold, which caused many farmers to fall back into the red. This is a huge shock to the hog market.
Unexpected outcome: the pattern of weak pig prices has been determined.
Many people are starting to speculate about whether this year's pig price has been a success. Judging from the current performance, this year's pig prices are basically in line with market expectations. With the increase of pessimism, the willingness of farmers to support ** decreased, and began to slaughter on a large scale. Even with measures aimed at revitalizing the market, such as cured sausages, it is still possible that the trend of pig prices will continue to decline in the fourth quarter. This year, the pattern of weak pig prices has been formed. Surprisingly, this pattern of weakness is not just a phenomenon this year, at least until the first half of next year. As the fourth quarter was less than expected, the huge hog production capacity is still slowly depleted. Given that the sharp loss in pig prices this year has not lasted long, production capacity has been slowly depleted, and there may even be a slight increase on the horizon. The huge production capacity will continue to influence next year. In addition, after the Spring Festival next year, market consumption will enter a downturn, which means that pig prices in the first half of next year may be ** again.
Lower-than-expected pork consumption is likely to persist for some time or even become the norm. For the hog market, oversupply and declining consumption are two important reasons. Despite the relative weakness of global consumption this year, and despite the introduction of a series of policies to stimulate the economy after more than three years of the pandemic, recovery will take time. The market is more concerned about whether pork consumption can really recover as before. This is because it takes a long time for the economy to go from trauma to adjustment, and the most obvious feature of this period is the contraction of consumption, not only in pork but also in various areas of consumption. What's more, many people find it increasingly difficult to sell pork, not because of **, but because of reduced consumer demand. With the liberalization of pork consumption, the market is facing a new pattern, that is, the reconstruction of pork consumption pattern. Although pork is still the main meat consumed in our country, its share is declining year by year. The impact may not be obvious in the short term, but in the long run, the pork market is facing more than just a problem of capacity reduction, and how pork can regain market favor will also be an important issue.
Summary. This year's pig price trend is unexpected, and the dust is gradually settled. At first, the market had high expectations for an inflection point in pig prices, but the inflection point did not occur in June as expected. It wasn't until July that pig prices started**, but the rally was not strong and soon showed signs of a pullback. In September, pig prices unexpectedly fell below the critical point of 8 yuan, which caused a big shock to the market. This unexpected outcome has led the market to reassess this year's pig prices** and the future. Judging from the current performance, this year's pig prices are basically in line with market expectations, and the weak pattern of pig prices will continue to the first half of next year.
In addition to the problem of oversupply, lower-than-expected pork consumption has also had an impact on the market. The impact of the pandemic on the economy has led to a decline in consumer demand, and pork consumption patterns are being rebuilt. It will take some time for the market to adapt to this new situation and find a new way out of consumption. Although the trend of pig prices this year is not as expected, it also gives the market an opportunity to think, how to solve the problem of pork consumption, how to optimize the layout of production capacity, how to strengthen the supervision of agricultural materials market, etc. Only by adapting to market demand can pork regain the favor of the market. Overall, there have been some unexpected changes in the trend of pig prices this year, and the inflection point that the market has been anxiously waiting for has not appeared, and pig prices began to surprise in September. This has had a certain impact on the market, and it also means the formation of a weak market pattern of pig prices this year. However, the recovery of pork consumption may also take a longer time due to lower-than-expected consumer demand. Therefore, the pattern of weak pork ** this year may continue into the first half of next year, and the recovery of pork consumption will also become an important issue. The market must find solutions to cope with the current difficult situation and prepare for the future.