This year's pig price trend has settled, and the unexpected outcome has been revealed
Observation and expectation: the market inflection point and the rebound of pork**.
Since the beginning of this year, it is widely expected that there will be a turning point in pig prices, especially after a small rebound in the first half of the year, people have more confidence in next year's pig **. It is widely believed that there will be an inflection point in June, and even the ** people have published articles that are optimistic about the June hogs**. However, June did not see the expected turn, and it was not until July that the pig's ** began to change. In July, the pig ** quickly broke through the "8" mark and advanced towards the "9". Although the increase is not large, the current domestic average pork ** is still maintained around "8" yuan. Time flies, and the trend of pork ** in September is surprising.
However, since September, pork *** has not only been slow, but has also shown a clear downward trend. Pork ** gradually from 85 yuan kilogram is approaching 8 yuan kilogram, and recently it has even fallen to 8 yuan kilogram. This major breakthrough will have a major impact on the entire market. First of all, the end of September and the beginning of October are the best times, and due to the stimulation of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday, there is just an upward momentum. On the other hand, the fourth quarter is the peak period for pork consumption, and it is also the peak period for consumption throughout the year. However, in this year's pig slaughter season, pork ** unexpectedly declined, and even fell below 8 yuan catty, so that many farmers lost money again. This has had a big impact on the entire pork industry.
An unexpected end: a situation of weak pig prices has been formed.
Many people are wondering whether this round of pig prices will come to an endFrom the current point of view, this year's pork is basically in line with market expectations. In this case, the farmers have not had much hope and have opted for a massive sell-off. Even if there are measures to stimulate consumption such as pickled meat and sausage powder, the trend of live pigs in the fourth quarter of this year will continue to be sluggish. Pig prices will be weak this year. Curiously, the weakness is not just happening this year, but will continue for some time to come. Because the development trend in the fourth quarter is less than expected, the huge pig production capacity is still slowly digesting. Considering that the process of pig *** did not last too long, and the digestion capacity was relatively slow, there may be a slight increase. Such a huge production will continue in the next year. In addition, with the decline in pork consumption after the Chinese New Year, pork ** is likely to fall back in the first half of this year.
Lower-than-expected pork consumption is likely to continue and become the norm in the days to come. As far as the pork market is concerned, oversupply and reduced consumption are the main factors causing pork ***. Although overall demand is still relatively weak this year, even if the country has taken a series of measures to promote economic growth, it will still take some time to recover after more than three years of the impact of the pandemic. People are more concerned about whether people's demand for pork can really return to the same level. After a catastrophe, a long-term adjustment process will continue for a long time, and the most striking feature of this period is the contraction of spending, which is reflected not only in pork **, but also in various aspects of consumption. In addition, many people believe that it has become more difficult to sell pork, and not because of prices**, but because consumer demand is decreasing. After the implementation of China's pig consumption liberalization policy, China's pig consumption model has emerged a new model of reconstruction. At present, although pork is still the largest meat in China, its proportion is decreasing year by year. This effect may not be significant in the short term, but in the long term, the current pig market is no longer just a simple production capacity problem, and how pigs can return to normal consumption levels is also a matter of concern.
Brief summary. This year's pork ** trend is unexpected, and the dust has gradually subsided. At first, there were high expectations for the turning point of pork **, but this turning point was not seen in June this year. Pork had been going until July, but not by a large margin, and there was a downward trend since then. At the beginning of September, the pig ** unexpectedly fell below the 8 yuan mark, which had a huge impact on the pork **. This unexpected result has led to a re-evaluation of this year's hogs** and future trends. Judging from the current situation, this year's pig ** basically meets everyone's expectations, and this weak state will continue until the second half of the next year.
In addition to the lack of supply, lower-than-expected pork consumption also had a certain impact on the market. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the consumption demand of residents has declined, and at the same time, China's pork consumption pattern is also being reconstructed. It will take a while to make this new environment better and find new places to spend it. Although the current pig ** has not met people's expectations, it also provides us with some ideas, such as how to deal with the problem of pigs, how to carry out the rational allocation of production capacity, how to strengthen the supervision and management of the agricultural market, etc. If we want to restore consumer love for pork, we must meet the needs of the market. Overall, the change in hogs this year was somewhat unexpected, with the expected turning point not coming, and pork unexpectedly starting to fall back in September. This news has had some impact on the **, and also indicates that the trend of the pig ** will show a weak trend during the year. In addition, pig consumption will continue for a longer period of time due to lower-than-expected consumer demand. Therefore, the weakness of pigs this year is likely to continue into the next year, and the recovery of pig demand will also be a major issue. In order to cope with the current dilemma and be fully prepared for future developments, the market must find answers.