In 2006, we launched a more economical electric vehicle to replace traditional combustion engine vehicles and accelerate the global transition to sustainable energy. China is also rapidly moving towards this goal. The average selling price of local new energy vehicles has dropped from 200,000 yuan last year to less than 180,000 yuan, which is comparable to traditional fuel vehicles**, and is expected to continue to decline in the future. Some new energy vehicle manufacturers that were initially positioned in the range of 250,000-400,000 yuan**, such as Wenjie, have also begun to launch more affordable models. According to the China Association, by 2024, China's new energy vehicles will account for about 42% of the car sales market.
However, Tesla did not actively participate in this change. Tesla will not launch new models in China for at least the next 18 months. Its Model 3 and Model Y models have lost their competitiveness when they were first introduced. Tesla's only new global model, the Cybertruck, is planned to produce only 12 by 202450,000 units, the main delivery market is still concentrated in the United States. The futuristic pickup truck is priced at around 43,000 yuan, which is 15 times.
A key factor in Tesla's inability to mass-produce in the next five years is the postponement of production of the 4680 type battery. In 2020, Tesla introduced the 4680 type battery, which was initially challenged due to its lower production efficiency. However, Tesla is determined to reduce costs by more than 50% by reimagining the battery production process and moving away from the traditional production model.
From Tesla to Musk to other tech companies, they all seem to be able to use first principles to find new solutions and take the lead in the technology field. However, with the 4680 battery, Tesla has encountered challenges. This battery will determine the production capacity and ** of Tesla's next-generation vehicles, but its mass production time and performance are not in line with initial expectations. It also highlights the daunting challenges that can be faced when it comes to complex innovations, even embracing first principles.
In fact, the progress of science and technology is very large, on the one hand, from the continuous innovation of scientific researchers, adhere to the spirit of improvement, the breakthrough in the field of biotechnology in China is a good example, before the United States Pfizer monopolized the Chinese market with high-tech products, expensive and restricted, harvested a large number of men. Friends of wealth. In recent years, through the continuous technological innovation and improvement of China's scientific researchers, the plant external version has been launched to realize lane change and overtaking, and has the advantage of technological innovation. "Strong" came into being, leading the development of the industry.
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The 4680 type battery, which was originally scheduled to go into production in 2021, did not begin small-scale production until the middle of this year. Tesla's Texas factory produced only 10 million Type 4680 batteries, which is not enough to meet the number of batteries needed for the Cybertruck. In order to meet the production demand, Tesla has begun to look for a battery manufacturing partner in China to OEM battery pole pieces. Panasonic plans to start supplying 4,680-type batteries to Tesla in the second quarter of next year, but its production capacity will only meet the needs of about 6,000 vehicles.
Musk came up with the concept of an "idiocy index": dividing the ** of a part by the raw material ** needed to make that part. The higher this index, the more "idiotic" the part is, and there may be too many intermediate links or low production efficiency. In 2007, Musk calculated that the "idiocy index" of batteries was 7 by querying battery raw materials on the London Metal Exchange**: at that time, raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel cost only $82 per kilowatt hour, while lithium batteries were sold for more than $600, a gap that became a revolutionary moment in the battery manufacturing industry.
In 2014, Tesla partnered with Panasonic to set up a gigafactory in the hope of reducing battery costs. However, in 2020, the "idiocy index" of the car as a whole remained less than 15, but the "idiocy index" of lithium batteries is still 2. Tesla had to raise the price of the car to $4,000 (i.e., "Model 3") in order to maintain the overall profit, but Musk believes that such a ** is not cheap.
In the same year, Tesla announced plans to develop a **2A low-cost electric vehicle of US$50,000 (equivalent to about 150,000 yuan) to enter the mainstream car market and compete with best-selling models such as Toyota Corolla. To achieve this goal, Tesla has developed a comprehensive plan to reduce battery costs, and since 2018, Tesla has set up a project team codenamed "Roadrunner" to develop and manufacture batteries in-house.
In this way, from a technical point of view, Tesla has found a new path for the entire industry: the 4680 type battery standardizes the size of large cylindrical cells. At present, major battery giants, including CATL, are actively researching dry electrode technology and applying it to key components such as battery separators. The 4680 battery will spark a scientific and technological revolution in the field of power battery manufacturing.