On our Internet, everyone talks about a phenomenon. That is, no matter any industrial product, as long as we complete the independent production, the ** of this commodity will immediately be beaten by us into the price of cabbage. Obviously, from the point of view that we don't have to buy foreign goods from now on, this is a good thing, but if we make all the industrial products at the price of cabbage, then the profit will come from the firstIsn't that something to think about?Is there a way to break this manufacturing curse?
Why isn't this a good thing?Obviously, the price of cabbage means that our enterprises have lost most of the dividends of industrial upgrading. We make simple handicrafts, toys, clothing, shoes and socks into cabbage prices, which don't matter, after all, they are some simple industrial products that rely on labor costs to occupy the market.
And those industrial products and electronic commodities that rely on a certain technical foundation to achieve production can be sold to us ten times or even a hundred times more when we cannot produce them. In order to break this kind of foreign monopoly, we often need high investment and spend a lot of manpower and material resources to conquer them. But after overcoming these technologies and realizing our independent production, if all of them become cabbage-priced commodities with little profit, will we always build a country and establish ourselves by earning these hard-earned money?Is it something to be proud of?
The answer, of course, is no. No one wants us to be the world's factory forever, providing cheap goods to the whole world. This would not only help the United States stabilize their monetary hegemony, but would also leave hard-working Chinese workers without high wages. Only when commodities maintain sufficient profits, we can obtain certain returns in the production and operation activities of commodities, improve the average level of China's manufacturing industry, and let profits benefit all the people, so that more money can be invested in scientific and technological research and development, and technological iteration of products, which is the core path to maintain competitiveness, rather than relying on cabbage prices to strive for meager profits, and forcing commodities into the market of stock games to fight.
The question now is, will we be able to get rid of the fate of cabbage in our enterprises after we complete scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading?At least now it seems that Huawei is doing a good job, and with Huawei's excellent technology, the goods can sell very high**. However, China's industrial upgrading and technological innovation are not Huawei's one-man show, but a catch-up with the world's advanced technology. Now it seems that even Huawei, under the technological blockade of the United States, is also making such a catch-up. And the so-called core technology is just a mature technology that has been mastered by developed countries in science and technology one step ahead of us!
Let's talk about the most eye-catching chip field, Huawei's new mobile phone is equipped with a domestic 7nm 5G chip, but there is still a gap between domestic chips and the world's advanced level by two or three generations. Most of the profits on tech products are in the hands of the most advanced pyramid tip, and 7nm has been a mature process of TSMC for several years. As early as many years ago, the profits of 7nm chips have been enjoyed. Not to mention that the yield of the chips made by Huawei with DUV lithography machine is not up to standard, even if we can successfully develop our own lithography machine in the future, we can produce 7nm chips with very good yield, what is the use?After all, people have long made this piece into a mature product.
And it also has a high-end process of 5nm and even 3nm. At that time, we only need to improve the higher process that we can't do, and reduce the 7nm that we can't do, and we still have to face the competition at a higher technical level. Sometimes, the price of cabbage is not something we are willing to bear, but a painful competitive strategy that we have to fight for. It's not that we are willing to sell cabbage at a price, but if you don't sell cabbage at a price, there will be no market competitiveness. A classic quote that is often said in folk trading is the most illustrative: if you are not afraid of not making money, you are afraid that the goods will not be complete. You can't produce all the high-tech products, and others can use the fields you can't produce to fight with you in the high-end field you're in.
Thinking from this point of view, ten or twenty years later, we have completed the replacement of domestic lithography machines, and successfully caught up with the world's most advanced chip production process. At this time, is everything all right?Not necessarily. As a stock market, every time we expand our market share, it means that the western developed countries that originally occupied this market will shrink their market share. When the time comes, the ** war will definitely be inevitable. In other words, the price of cabbage is still unavoidable. And the advantage we can rely on is nothing more than our lower labor costs, which is really not so important in the competition in the high-tech field. What's more, we don't know if others have taken a few steps forward and mastered more high-end technology than us after we got to where others are today. If that's the case, we still have to face the ** suppression of cabbage, and we have to carry out a longer scientific and technological long march.
Catching up with itself, what we are chasing is the scientific and technological field that others have mastered, which is a breakthrough for us, and a mature field in the eyes of others. Under the blockade of other people's technology, we need to spend huge resources to break through, and we need to reap returns on the commodity side in the future. And these returns have already been completed. And even if we finish catching up, don't we still have to compete with others at the same technical level?One step at a time, one step at a time.
It's like a child from a poor family and a child from a rich family go to college, even if they are classmates, they do the same job and get the same income after graduation. The rich family bought a real estate and a car for their children early on, and all the income of the children of the rich family can be used to increase their wealth, while the children of the poor family may work hard all their lives, just to get the starting point of the children of the rich family. And the technological upgrade itself is similar to this, our so-called upgrade, just to reach the state that people have matured today, and when we reach it, maybe people have reached a higher starting point.
Let's talk about the problem of competing on the same stage, let's compare it with chips. The profit of the chip industry has a lot to do with the yield of the product. The yield of the product is gradually improved with the continuous summing up of experience in large-scale production and the avoidance of past mistakes. And this process of accumulating experience and improving the process is the Xi curve that all high-end products must go through. Assuming that we can make all of TSMC's high-end chips today, it does not mean that we have the strength to compete with TSMC.
The reason is very simple, TSMC has begun production many years ago, the production Xi curve of high-end chips has been carried out for several years, at this time people make a hundred chips, the yield may reach more than 90%, and we have just started, may only reach 80% of the commercialization passing line. Don't underestimate this 10% gap, this gap often requires a company to strive for many years to break through, and this is the advantage of the pioneer. After the technology is reached, is it not possible to realize the cost-effective advantage of the opponent?If you still think that we have a low labor cost advantage to rely on at this time, I can only say that you still equate the high-end industry with clothing, shoes and socks.
Let's take a step back and say that even if we have completed the learning Xi curve of scientific and technological products, we have achieved the same advantages as Western countries in terms of production cost and cost performance. Is this the end of it?Can we get rid of the fate of cabbage prices?Or not. Why?They also have a brand advantage, a market advantage, and a word-of-mouth advantage.
Let's assume that today's domestic cars in China are on par with joint venture cars in terms of technical level, and there is basically no objection to this, right?But what about brand power?How many people still have the obsession of joint venture cars?Let's take a look at the same first-class joint venture car, how much is the difference between it and our domestic car in terms of product power?Why do we have to sell 150,000 yuan when we have achieved the quality of 300,000 yuan of joint venture cars?Compared with the joint venture car, isn't this another cabbage-based ** marketing?If we achieve Audi's quality and interior, domestic cars will dare to sell Audi's **. Would you choose Audi or a domestic car of the same grade?Isn't the answer self-explanatory?
In many cases, the market advantage is not reflected in the product power. Brand competitiveness is a product in the market for many years to build up the reputation of the advantage, only in this area also catch up, in order to compete with the same foreign car, fight is not whose cheaper, but who sells more expensive. And the cultivation of this kind of brand reputation is not something that can be done overnight. There is not much difference between a luxury jewelry bag and an ordinary leather bag in terms of materials and workmanship, but if a luxury jewelry brand is so expensive, someone will buy it, and if an inconspicuous brand is expensive, no one will buy it. Compared with technology, brand is also a very important factor in limiting**.
However, many people think that this is nothing. I will be 100,000 level of domestic business quality to the quality of the joint venture 200,000, I sell 100,000 still have a profit, but the premium is slightly lower than the joint venture brand product premium, I can still maintain a good profit margin, anyway, this market was not mine before, every time I sell a little more, it is equivalent to expanding a little new market share in this market. Why not?
This perception can't be miscalculated, but this is just eating the leftovers of foreign brands. Not to mention how much market share can be made, how to quickly return the funds spent on R&D investment at a huge cost in the early stage?If you want to complete a breakthrough, you must always complete the continuous research and development of science and technology, how to invest in the research and development of new technologies on a large scale?If the R&D funds can't keep up, aren't you always following other people's butts to eat scraps?
Yes, we can rely on the advantages of our huge industrial clusters to dilute the cost of products through mass production. Then hit the market at a low price to make a reasonable profit. But this relies on the advantages of industrial clusters, foreigners can't do it, we can rely on low prices to occupy the market, if all products are this idea, we are not always making cabbage price goods. Just as in the past few decades, we have relied on the advantages of industrial clusters to make military and civilian consumer goods such as automobiles, electronic products, and home appliances at the price of cabbage, are we really willing to do this kind of sales model of the world's factory?
Now there is a question for everyone to think about, Apple's new mobile phone can be sold for tens of thousands, and most of our domestic brands can avoid Apple's new product launch conference to make some lower** mobile phones. And there is no high premium without ** grade, there is no high yield without high premium, and there is no high tax without high yield. The country's revenue also comes from corporate taxes, and if our enterprises are reduced to producers of cabbage prices, isn't it very difficult for the country's tax revenue to break through?Therefore, the price of cabbage must not be our future, but a way for us to be helpless at present.
So is there any way that we can break through the shackles of cabbage prices and make a leap from individuals to countries?The answer is yes, but not easily. Or back to our example above, what a child from a rich family gives after graduation is the end of a child's life from a poor family. At this time, if the children of poor families want to surpass the children of rich families in terms of wealth, the only way is to obtain a higher income than the children of rich families. This requires children from poor families to work harder and forge ahead in order to achieve this.
Speaking of which, it reminds me of TSMC. TSMC also encountered a time when its technology was inferior to that of Japanese companies. Falling behind and then forging ahead is the key to TSMC's ability to become a god in the field of chip production. At that time, TSMC's R&D can be said to be working day and night, in the days when TSMC was forging ahead, there was a saying that there were 100,000 young people and 100,000 soldiers, and all R&D personnel worked day and night, and when they were sleepy, they lay on the floor in the company. And maintain the advantage to this day.
However, TSMC's past is not our present. Because we are still far from TSMC's catch-up foundation back then. At present, what we need to do is still to break the technical barriers of the West as much as possible, make technological breakthroughs in the West and commercialize them, and then use the advantages of our industrial clusters to turn the products into cabbage, expand the market scale through the cabbage strategy to obtain overall profits, and then invest the profits in new research and development. This is also the reason why China's tax will give profits to technology companies, to put it bluntly, in order to complete this step of the breakthrough as soon as possible.
And breaking through the verbal is easy to say, but it is really harder to do. We have already explained the scientific and technological factors and word-of-mouth factors that affect the product above to you. Now, what we can do is still catch up. And from the perspective of the law of scientific and technological development, our catch-up is likely to last for at least 20 years, which means that in these decades, almost all of our fields will be developed and operated based on cabbage. Technological breakthroughs and transcendences may not be possible until the second half of this century.
This is not the path we want to take, but it is the only way for those who come after it. Suppose we make high-end chips in the future, then the chips will be cabbage. Medical equipment has been made, and tens of millions of medical equipment imported from abroad will appear in the domestic field. In this process, we are uncomfortable, and the West is actually very uncomfortable. The reason is that they have realized that our industrial upgrading seems to be catching up with them, but as long as we conquer the field, they will immediately encounter a market crisis.
Based on concerns about China's industrial upgrading in the future, Western countries are desperately investing money in scientific and technological research and development, while also increasing the blockade of our science and technology. Seriously, Westerners are more anxious than us, they don't have the basic conditions to fight with us, but our industrial upgrading is burning our butts to devour their advantages in the technology industry. In such an environment, it is strange that there are no contradictions!In the past, cabbage may be the initiative of the West, to put it bluntly, it is to hit you, I have ten kinds of scientific and technological products, and you only have one, so I will make good use of my other nine and fight with you by sacrificing one. Now they don't have much capital to fight on.