With the exhaustion of scientific and technological dividends, the growth of the world economy has gradually peaked, and the world has gradually entered an era of stock game. The events that have occurred around the world, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and even the Sino-US confrontation of the century, which affects the global economy, are all the result of the butterfly effect under the stock game. This year, we can feel that the United States has led the support of India's manufacturing industry in Southeast Asia and Mexico, and the gradual decoupling from China has accelerated significantly. Even the United States has to transfer to South Korea in the past for the so-called *** in their mouths, and Taiwan's semiconductor terminal industry has to make a backup reshoring in the United States.
The United States has only one purpose in doing all this, which is to get rid of the shackles of China's industrial chain on the United States in terms of the overall environment, so as to strengthen the dollar's status as an international currency, so as to solve the credit crisis of the century that the dollar has encountered. And we naturally understand that this industrial chain plan has been launched since the Obama era. Therefore, on the premise of maintaining the industrial base as much as possible, China is also promoting the internationalization of the RMB. The current situation is that the re-industrialization of the United States and the internationalization of China's renminbi have formed the main mode of confrontation between China and the United States, and the confrontation between China and the United States has become white-hot, and the global pattern is also becoming stormy in such an environment.
As for the strategic intentions of both China and the United States, each has its own supporters. Some people are optimistic about the United States, after all, the US hegemony has been in operation for a hundred years and occupies an innate advantage. As long as the United States opens up the market demand to other countries, in the long run, although China has the advantages of the industrial chain, the products produced are not digested by the market, and the industrial advantages are not enough to shake the position of the United States. As long as the dollar can maintain its position as a currency hegemon, its huge market will eventually become a force that crushes China**.
Some people are optimistic about China, because the US hegemony built on monetary hegemony has long been hollowed out by industry, and in the final analysis, the US dollar credit without industrial support will collapse at a critical point, and this critical point is most likely the critical point at which the United States cannot suppress inflation. If we do not carry out cheap goods in the United States, the era of dollar inflation will come, even if the United States can meet its own demand for cheap goods by supporting the industrial development of other countries in the future, but in this process, the advantage of cost performance is still on the Chinese side. In addition, it often takes more than ten years or even decades to improve the industrial chain, and whether the United States can survive in this process is a great test of the United States' ability to govern. As long as the United States cannot survive these decades, it will be the United States that will fall first.
The question now is, which of the above two perceptions is correct?At least not now, because it takes time to reshape the industrial chain, and if the United States decouples from China and wants to completely get rid of China's influence overnight, it is obvious that the dollar without a product base will immediately encounter a credit crisis. This is also the reason why the United States is engaged in gradual decoupling with us, but it never mentions decoupling. Americans want to rely on the commodities of our industrial chain to maintain the monetary credit of the dollar before they completely get rid of our industrial chain.
However, we do not have a currency advantage at present, and the international transaction of RMB is just beginning. So we can't completely abandon the dollar right now. Coupled with the fact that our current international ** is still built on the pedestal of the US-led economic order, it is unrealistic for us to completely abandon the dollar now. Our current situation is similar to that of the United States, we need to add the renminbi's share of international settlement to the U.S. dollar**, and we still need the dollar-dominated international order until the renminbi has completed the internationalization of a sufficient share. That's why Americans don't talk about decoupling, and we don't take the initiative to decouple from the United States. No matter which of China and the United States takes the initiative to decouple from the other, the damage to both sides will be very great.
What China and the United States want most now is actually the same. China and the United States are the only two superpowers in the world, and in the future, the two sides will completely get rid of each other, and there is almost no possibility that they will never get along with each other. Because no one can ignore the enormous influence of both sides in their respective fields. This can also be deduced that whether it is the internationalization of our renminbi or the re-industrialization of the United States, although it seems to be-for-tat, the real purpose is not to completely break with the opponent. It is to achieve the purpose of weakening the influence of the other party through their own actions. And weakening the other party is only a phased purpose. The ultimate goal of both sides is to weaken the other and then completely tame the other side, so that the other side can become a stable power under the global political and economic order dominated by itself.
Obviously, whether from the perspective of China or the United States, it is unimaginably difficult to achieve such a goal. If you can do it easily, there won't be so many tricks that you come and go. The question now is, can't China and the United States live in peace?Haven't China and the United States always been at peace with each other in the past?Why do you have to fight to the death?Let's put this issue from the perspective of the United States and the United States, and we can explain this issue clearly.
First of all, the depth of the Chinese and US economies is reflected in the interests of each other. We can say without hesitation that China's economic achievements over the past several decades are inseparable from the investment of American capital in China. Over the past 40 years, while American capital has made a bumper profit in China, China's industry has developed into a giant in scale, on the same level as the United States in size. Moreover, in terms of growth potential, population advantage has always been the absolute core of a country's economic growth potential, and over time, it is almost certain that the market size will surpass that of the United States. And in the short term, only China has such growth potential.
And the nature of capital is profit-seeking, and there are no borders to speak of. Even if it is inspired by the high interest rate of the United States to return to the United States today, once the United States cuts interest rates, these capitals will return to the big market of China to chase profits. Therefore, the United States wants to completely cut off the connection between capital and China through monetary policy, and it is obvious that capital is unwilling. This is also the reason why the moderates toward China, represented by American capital, have always been reluctant to decouple from China, because there are huge interests that they can see, and the same interests cannot be found in the United States, which has no growth potential. Although the pursuit of capital has been suppressed by the US policy side in the short term, it will still choose China over the United States in the long run.
Second, from the moment the United States realizes that China's huge siphoning effect on American capital will eventually lead to the decline of the United States. We began to train other countries to become participants in the U.S. market. For example, the cultivation of new import destinations from the United States, such as India, Vietnam, and Mexico, which are now hot.
But we still have to look at the results through the facts, although the United States ** has the intention to cultivate these countries to replace us in the industrial chain, but American capital actually sees them as our backup, to put it bluntly, China +1, capital on the basis of retaining China's production capacity, copy a set of production capacity outside China. Capital did not completely withdraw from China and went to these countries, but on the basis of China's dominance, it made a backup in these countries, and its purpose was nothing more than to diversify risks. This also shows from another side that China has more advantages, and it is very unwise to completely abandon China.
The reason why international capital is doing this is very simple, the United States is now supporting these countries that want to replace China with industrial chain transfer. It does not have the advantages of China's perfect industrial chain. Clothing, shoes and socks have little technical content, or some electronic processing of incoming assembly can still be based on, and slightly more complex industries can not be achieved overnight in a short period of time. This is also why assembly companies like Nike, Adi, Foxconn and even Samsung can be transferred out. And a large number of industrial chains, which have a slight need for technology and need the support of industrial clusters, are still firmly in our hands.
It is precisely because of this consideration that we realized many years ago that we must strengthen our industrial advantages. Only by mastering the industrial advantages can we grasp the right to speak in the international world. Moreover, with the outbreak of the Sino-US science and technology war, we have vigorously promoted industrial upgrading and are pushing the industrial chain to move towards high-end industries. At present, China's high-end export share has reached the world's first, and long-term maintenance is bound to pose a fatal threat to the high-end industries in the West.
Such a result has made the United States aware of the danger. Because the United States is essentially a country that relies on financial hegemony to stand. As long as the hegemony of the dollar remains, the United States can print money in exchange for world goods and services. You can also harvest high-quality assets around the world through the dollar tide and find asset endorsement for dollar credit.
But the maintenance of dollar hegemony has two fatal flaws, and these two flaws are that the United States needs to rely on external factors to avoid harming dollar hegemony. We know that the basis of monetary hegemony is the absence of a credit crisis, and monetary credit comes from the guarantee of national sovereignty and the future expectation of the purchasing power of money. If we assume that the dollar depreciates excessively under inflation, and everyone abandons the dollar in favor of ** or other currencies, then the hegemony of the dollar will naturally disintegrate. And these two shortcomings can occur even if there is no political crisis.
The first flaw is that no other currency can be allowed to become an international currency, and the dollar must be exported to the world in order to maintain its hegemony. If you want everyone to use dollars, you have to have dollars in your hands, right?To put it bluntly, if the renminbi also becomes a currency that can compete with the dollar, does it mean that the international export efficiency of the dollar will be significantly reduced?This second defect is that the United States, which has hollowed out its industry, needs cheap and stable goods from all over the world. This is very understandable, there is no industry in the United States, and if the ** fluctuation of commodities is too large, domestic inflation will naturally rise. Currency depreciation has a direct impact on international credit.
Based on the above two defects, if the United States completely decouples from us, it means that before the global industrial chain recovers, the interruption of the first chain will be something that needs to be endured for a long time in the future, and the United States must endure higher-cost product inputs. This will hit these two flaws of the dollar directly. A disruption to the chain will result in the dollar not being spent. High-cost product inputs, in turn, lead to a decrease in the purchasing power of the dollar and high inflation. This will deal a fatal blow to the hegemony of the dollar. After the hegemony of the dollar is affected, the so-called US-led economic order is nothing more than a mirage built on yellow sand.
The United States hates us, not because of our disobedience to them, but because we have in our hands a well-established industry that is sufficient for the collapse of American hegemony. A large part of the reason why the hegemony of the dollar has been maintained for so many years is that we export goods to the United States, and the United States exports dollars to us, and then we use these dollars to buy industrial raw materials all over the world to help the dollar circulate around the world. The prosperity of the United States today is by no means the result of the old-fashioned working class in the United States who work only three or four hours a day and enjoy afternoon tea comfortably, but on the basis of our 1.4 billion people working day and night to provide the United States with cheap goods and help the global circulation of dollars.
The United States has obtained through us the nourishment to maintain the hegemonic pedestal, but it has been very cruel to us. In the 2008 financial crisis, we helped the United States survive the crisis, and it stands to reason that the United States should repay the favor. But if the Americans don't do this, the U.S. has not found the assets behind the over-issued currency in the economic crisisThe Americans searched and searched, and finally targeted our country. Finally, in 2015, we were engaged in an unprecedented financial dark war. Although both China and the United States suffered heavy losses in this financial war, the United States failed to reap the harvest, causing the United States to become angry and defeated, and began to impose various restrictions on us and be hostile.
For the past few decades, we have been honest in our industry, providing cheap goods and services to the United States, and helping the United States strengthen its hegemony. In 08, we paid for the $700 billion that the United States over-issued in dealing with the economic crisis, and the Americans still felt that it was not enough, and they had to harvest us financially. Let's ask, if it were you and gave your heart to a white-eyed wolf, would you still be willing to be friends with him?
We are upgrading to high-end industries and internationalizing the renminbi in order to get rid of the white-eyed wolf behavior of the United States who picks up a bowl to eat meat and puts down chopsticks and scolds the mother. Once we break through the industrial restrictions, we will never give the United States cheap ** goods again. Without cheap goods, the international status of the US dollar will be challenged, and if the internationalization of the RMB is repeated, the international status of the US dollar will collapse. With this is the collapse of US global hegemony.
Americans naturally understand the possible consequences of our efforts today, so there is a consensus in the United States, both the two parties and the civil society, which are deeply divided. It is necessary to strangle China's industrial upgrading and the internationalization of the renminbi. Based on the need for the United States to maintain its hegemonic position, the United States needs time to rebuild the global industrial chain. So they won't completely decouple from us, but come slowly little by little. Based on the need to stifle our challenge, the United States will certainly engage in confrontation with us, and moving the industrial chain out of our country can not only ensure the stability of the United States' hegemonic position, but also suppress our resistance, which can be said to kill two birds with one stone. The above is the reason why the United States will definitely create trouble for us in the industrial chain for a long time.
On the other hand, from our point of view, the direct purpose of our industrial upgrading and RMB internationalization today is very simple. It's just that in the United States, this seems to be a challenge to their hegemony, so whether or not we have the will to compete with the United States for hegemony, the United States regards our actions as confrontational behavior. So what do we have to do for the reason in **?
Please think about it, if we allow the United States to operate and do nothing, eventually both capital and industrial chain will be withdrawn from our country. As a country with a large population and a large manufacturing country, once the United States empties its industrial base, will we have a future?So we have to respond to the US attempt. This is no longer a simple international confrontation, but a war of life and death for us.
Obviously, the internationalization of the renminbi is the most effective way we have chosen. When we use the dollar, we must always guard against the financial attacks of the Americans, because if we are not careful, the fruits of decades of development will become the mouths of the Americans. In the past, when we were weak, integrating into the global economic order led by the United States was a path that we had no choice but to rely on. But after decades of development that we have today, the United States wants to block us as an island under the world economic order without succeeding in harvesting us, and it is clear that we need to get rid of this restriction at this time.
Let's assume that if the United States succeeds in isolating us, it will announce that it will kick us out of the international settlement system after a long period of isolation. When the time comes, we can't help it if we don't want to go to the dollar, we will be like Russia today, thinking that we will also get dollars. Since passive defense can't avoid the worst, why not take the initiative?Wouldn't it be easier to internationalize the renminbi, build our own international economic order, and leverage our current strength at its peak?That's why we emphasize that we will definitely open wider to the outside world, and whoever we talk about opening up to the outside world is to expand the economic territory of the renminbi and serve to build our own economic territory!
The problem now is that compared with the financial hegemony of the United States, the internationalization of the renminbi has a natural disadvantage, although we have the advantage of the industrial chain, but this is not conducive to the renminbi going out. Compared to the U.S. global buy-buy-buy model to export dollars, what do we rely on?Obviously, we can't transfer the industrial chain out like the United States, which is exactly what the Americans want, and we still have to rely on the advantages of the industrial chain to maintain confrontation with the United States. Therefore, we must find a new way to promote the internationalization of the renminbi, which is different from the dollar.
So how do you do that?My idea, since we want to build an economic order dominated by us, let more countries conduct international ** on the platform we have built. Then the only way to do this is to make more countries willingly dependent on our economic order by benefiting third parties. To put it bluntly, we still need to build our strong internal circulation market scale and induce third-party countries to do business with us through a larger market. Money, on the other hand, is the intermediary that constructs the economic order that we dominate. If you think about this logic, you can understand how to promote the internationalization of the RMB.
Just as we used to integrate into the US-dominated economic order, we had to trade in dollars. Since we want to carry out international cooperation with us and integrate into our economic order, then we can completely ask for goods and services to our country to use the yuan, which is a logical thing. For example, the RMB settlement of China and Russia, and the RMB oil are all extensions of this idea.
There is also the problem that the US dollar settlement system, which has been in operation for many years, is clearly more attractive. Even if we describe a scenario to a third party, saying that settlement in RMB will eventually lead to the decline of the dollar, it will take a long time for us to complete this relative to the current position of the dollar. So we have to make a clear commitment to the third party, and that commitment is the credibility of the renminbi and the promise not to engage in financial harvesting, and I think the renminbi can make that commitment at least until the dollar is completely defeated.
This is also why Saudi Arabia uses the renminbi to exchange in Shanghai, we keep our promises, and it represents international credibility, if we can maintain such credibility for a long time, the credibility of the renminbi in the international market will gradually stand up. Although the promise of financial harvesting now seems illusory, compared with the many harvests of the US dollar in the past, if we make such a commitment on the basis of the credibility of the RMB, the international community is still willing to use the RMB, the reason is very simple, in the past, the US dollar was cut too ruthlessly, if there is no financial harvesting, and promise credit of the currency, why not use it?The world has suffered for a long time, and this is the basis for the internationalization of the RMB.
Of course, having a foundation does not mean that there are conditions for implementation. We need something else to get people to use the renminbi. Our country is currently suffering from extreme repression by the United States, and this is something that the whole world can clearly see. Just like the melee during the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period, whether a country that has been hit can be rescued from the outside world depends not on whether the rescuing country has the will to curb the rise of a powerful country, but on whether we can withstand this kind of blow. Only by withstanding the blow of the United States will we be able to cause other countries to believe in our strength. At the same time, based on the rebellion against the financial harvest of the United States, the major powers will also use the renminbi in order to curb the excessive expansion of the dollar hegemony. This is based on the need for international equilibrium and the need to avoid the need for the dollar to dominate alone.
All countries understand a truth, when the renminbi has the ability to compete with the dollar, if they do not help the internationalization of the renminbi. When the renminbi is completely defeated by the dollar, then they will not even have a chance to contain the dollar. Moreover, if the dollar were to be inflated to the limit, even the simplest way to raise the seigniorage on dollar transactions could cost the countries of the world involved in international transactions dearly. This is why Saudi Arabia will allow the underlying logic of RMB to trade oil, in international exchanges, there are no permanent friends, only eternal interests. Now Saudi Arabia's behavior, who can say that it is not a backstab in the back?And Saudi Arabia's exchange of petroyuan from our country is a credit verification of RMB.
Of course, what we have said above is based on the perspective of international balance. Fundamentally speaking, whether the internationalization of the renminbi can be smoothly promoted is, fundamentally speaking, to show our economic strength. Let our market size form the first of the kind for third countries. The situation now is that we can withstand the attack of the United States, and we have a domestic market size of the same magnitude as the United States. This is the key to ensuring the credibility of the renminbi and the willingness of the international community to use it. Next, if we can moderately make concessions to third countries, so that other countries can see the benefits of using the renminbi, and reduce the risk of using the dollar alone. We can continue to expand the share of RMB internationalization.
In addition, the world is so big, and the scale of the world's ** is relatively fixed. Any slight expansion of the renminbi economic circle is a process of shrinking the territory of the US dollar. As long as we can find a way to maintain the process of the internationalization of the renminbi eating away at the dollar little by little, then the renminbi will always have a day to compete with the United States. Coupled with the advantages of the industrial chain, quantitative changes will induce qualitative changes sooner or later in the future. We can leverage the advantages of the industrial chain and the internationalization of the renminbi to force the United States to reshape the international order. At that time, it will not be a question of how to confront it, but who will dominate the rest of the world economic order.