Since the loss of the world's largest corn exporter, U.S. corn has begun to worry.
Or rather, although the United States is still China's first import of corn, but with the opening of Brazilian corn exports to China, and the recovery of Ukrainian corn exports to China,The share of U.S. corn exports to China is being squeezed.
Of course, U.S. corn will not watch the huge market being robbed, so it began to look for various opportunities to increase exports.
That's when the opportunity came.
The first opportunity is the seasonal opportunity.
Brazil's performance in the international grain market this year is indeed good, in addition to the abundant soybean yield, the corn has also ushered in a bumper harvestExports of soybeans and corn both surged, and they became the world's number one exporter.
Among them,The most prominent manifestation is that Brazil's corn exports to China have increased significantly.
The data shows thatAs of October this year, China imported a total of 18.6 million tons of corn, of which 6.35 million tons of U.S. corn, accounting for about 341%, while Brazil corn reached 5.57 million tons, accounting for 30%.
It can be seen that the two are very close, and Brazil is exporting corn to China for the first time this year, so it is really good to have such a performance.
Brazil corn is divided into two crops, the first corn is sown around October and harvested in February and March of the following year, while the second corn is usually planted at the beginning of the year and harvested in June and July.
In other words, Brazil's second-season corn exports usually peak in July and August, but this year's second-season corn harvest time has been delayed, coupled with logistics congestion, so exports are sparse and scattered.
And the harvest time of American corn is usually from September to November, that is,At present, it is the peak of U.S. corn exports, and it is a good time for U.S. corn to increase and expand exports.
The second opportunity is U.S. corn***
After the U.S. corn harvest, the futures and spot ** both fell, which was also reflectedThe situation of U.S. corn ** is relaxed.
According to the USDA's November supply and demand report,This year, U.S. corn production will reach 38.7 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of more than 11%, while ending stocks will also surge by 58% year-on-year.
After the decline in U.S. corn**, it stimulated market buyers, especially Chinese buyers, and the U.S. expects Chinese demand for U.S. corn to recover.
In fact, the number of U.S. corn exports to China has indeed increased significantly.
For example,The number of U.S. corn export inspections to China recently was 2750,000 tons, compared to 1,666 tons in the previous week.
The third opportunity is that Brazil's second-crop corn crop is becoming a concern.
Although Brazil has had a bumper corn crop this year, the outlook for Brazil's second corn crop has become gloomy due to weather.
The reason for this is that the second crop of corn is usually planted after the soybean harvest, but the delay in soybean planting is likely to delay the harvest, so the planting time of corn will also be delayedIf the delay is too long, it is likely that the optimal planting time will be missed.
This means,Brazilian maize will be at risk of frost during the important growing season.
And according to the relevant agency**,Brazil's corn production in 2024 is expected to decline by 91%。
The gloomy outlook for Brazilian corn has also increased the export momentum of US corn.
With the end of the U.S. corn harvest, the export curtain gradually opened, and U.S. corn began to start from a low point. However, due to easing and global demand remains weak, the increase is bound to be limited.
But this wave of positive is a rare opportunity for U.S. corn, according to the USDA's November supply and demand reportIt is expected that China's corn imports will still be as high as 23 million tons in 2023 24, which means that the Chinese market will still be the focus of US corn exports.
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