With the approach of the New Year's Day holiday, coupled with the sluggish downstream terminal demand in the off-season, and the increase in the shutdown and maintenance of steel enterprises, the supply and demand are weak, and the market merchants are not in a good mood to replenish the warehouseLet's listen to the analyst's detailed analysis ......
Factors influencing steel**
no.1
Northbound capital flowed into new energy, and ** capital decreased
On December 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on matters related to the average fuel consumption of passenger car enterprises and the management of new energy vehicle credits in 2024-2025, and the credit ratio requirements for new energy vehicles in 2024 and 2025 are 28% and 38% respectively.
Driven by the good news of policy support for new energy vehicles, A-share northbound funds have flowed into the new energy sector sharply, while the market is facing the New Year's Day holiday, the position closure has increased, the market risk aversion has intensified, and the market has fallen slightlyAffect the sentiment of the spot market, the market transaction is sluggish, and the trend of steel is bearish.
no.2
Many cities have implemented emergency response to heavy pollution
From December 26 to 29, Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, had a continuous moderate to severe pollution process and posed a serious pollution risk. With the approval of the Xi'an Heavy Pollution Weather Emergency Headquarters, the orange alert will be upgraded to a red alert, and the heavy pollution weather level emergency response measures will be implemented from 7 o'clock on December 27.
With Tangshan, Xingtai, Liaocheng, Shijiazhuang, Zhengzhou and other cities to open environmental protection and production restrictions, Xi'an followed by the start of heavy pollution emergency response measures, some steel enterprises production restrictions, reduce the pressure of steel, plus at the end of the year some steel enterprises to start normal shutdown and maintenance,This week, the output of mainstream steel varieties declined, which is good for the trend of steel.
no.3
Many places welcomed the strongest fog and haze since this winter
According to China's weather *** today (December 28), North China, Huanghuai and other places will welcome the strongest fog and haze weather process since this winter, of which the most affected period is tomorrow night to the morning of the 30th, need to pay attention to precautions. In addition, in the next three days, the rain and snow weather in the central and eastern parts of Xinjiang will also increase temporarily, including moderate to heavy snow in parts of northern Xinjiang and eastern Xinjiang.
In late December, most parts of the country are facing heavy pollution weather, and many cities have opened environmental protection and production restrictions, coupled with the blessing of cold air, fog and haze weather have increased in many regions, affecting the outdoor construction progress and steel market transactions and transportationThe market trading sentiment is not good, and the trend of steel is bearish.
The spot market was stable and rose and fell
According to the data of China Steel Network APP
Building materialsAmong the 24 markets, 2 markets rose 10-30 yuan tons, 1 market fell 10 yuan tons, and the average rebar 20mmHRB400E was 4043 yuan tons, up 3 yuan tons from the previous trading day
Hot rollsAmong the 24 markets, 2 markets rose 10-20 yuan tons, 4The average of 75 hot-rolled coils was 4177 yuan tons, up 3 yuan tons from the previous trading day
Medium and heavy platesAmong the 23 markets, 3 markets rose 10 yuan tons, 1 market fell 10 yuan tons, and the average 14-20mm medium plate was 4117 yuan tons, up 1 yuan ton from the previous trading day.
**Slight downside
On the 28th, the main force of black rebar fell 17 to close at 3996, down 042%；The main force of hot coil fell 29 to close at 4096, down 070%；The main force of coking coal fell 455, closed at 1879, down 236%；The main force of coke fell 23 to close at 2484, down 092%；Iron ore fell 13 to close at 966, down 133%。
Integrated perspectives
At present, the macro policy is still expected to be, today's market by the external hedging ** to reduce the position of iron ore more single, the market by the impact of funds and news, the spot market operation has fallen, through this week's mainstream varieties of steel data show that steel production declined, the social treasury increased, the table demand declined, the data is bearish steel ** trend, the data is in line with the seasonal off-season characteristics, the probability of a short-term fall is not large, the last two days before the holiday is recommended to see more and move less, pay attention to the opportunity after the holiday,It is expected that tomorrow's steel ** will run steadily in a fall, with a range of 10-20 yuan tons.