Tomorrow's steel price**The recent disk continues to fluctuate around 3900, which is not difficult to see that although the market sentiment has cooled down, the cost side is still in strong support. From the spot end, the strength of the decline is not very much, so the current logic is still in the **adjustment, tomorrow** how to go, look down ......
First, the influencing factors of the steel market are as followsChina exported 5.46 million tons of plates in the month, an increase of 68 percent year-on-year2%
The latest data shows that in November 2023, China exported 5.46 million tons of steel plates, a year-on-year increase of 682%;From January to November, the cumulative export was 54.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 392%。(NetEase News).
2. China's total steel consumption has reached its peak and decline is an inevitable trend
According to the estimation of experts from the China Iron and Steel Association, the current total steel consumption has reached its peak, and the total decline is an inevitable trend. Although the demand for steel for real estate has declined, the demand for steel in automobile, shipbuilding, home appliances and other industries has increased, making up for the lack of total volume, and the steel market is still resilient. (Finance Associated Press).
3. In the first 11 months of this year, China's coal ** maintained a high level
At present, China's macro economy is showing a positive trend of recovery, domestic heating coal consumption has entered the peak season, coal demand has grown rapidly, and the production of raw coal in November is 4100 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 46%, the short-term domestic coal ** is relatively sufficient, and the market supply and demand are generally balanced. (Interface News).
Second, the spot marketToday's rebar: stable and weak
The market expects sentiment to fall, and short-term rebar** follows the cost side and disk trend. Considering that it is difficult for coke to fall in the near future, and there is a demand for replenishment in the winter storage of steel mills, it is expected that rebar will run steadily and moderately tomorrow.
Today's hot roll: weak operation
Recently, there has been more snowfall, transportation is restricted, and the market has gradually entered the off-season, with poor demand performance, and supply and demand are both weak. However, the raw material side compresses the profits of steel mills, and the bottom support is relatively strong, and it is expected that the hot coil will rise slightly tomorrow.
Today's middle board: **Weak
Terminal demand exports remain resilient, inventories continue to deplete the rhythm, the off-season has not yet begun to accumulate, and the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent. In addition, steel mills have successively opened winter storage to replenish raw material inventory to support the space below the cost side, and it is expected that the medium plate will run steadily and strongly tomorrow.
Today's strip: Wide**
The hot-rolled strip market is weakly adjusted, and the overall transaction is poor. However, at present, coke companies launched a new round of upward offensive, with the support of the raw material side, the market may be relatively limited, and it is expected that the strip will run steadily tomorrow.
Today's profile: the main steady fall
The billet ** continuous downward adjustment of the bottom support of the section steel ** weakened, the current market as a whole shows a situation of oversupply, the short-term ** independent adjustment power is insufficient, mainly following the disk operation, it is expected that tomorrow the profile will run steadily in a rise.
Today's pipes: a slight downward revision
After the fourth round of coke increases, the losses of steel mills may further intensify, and there are expectations of subsequent production cuts. In addition, at present, under the support of high costs, the spot price reduction is not large, and it is expected that the pipe will run steadily tomorrow.
Third, the raw material marketBillet today: Stable operation for the time being
Judging from the current situation, the inventory pressure of downstream steel rolling enterprises is large, and the demand has entered the off-season, and the trading activity has decreased. However, considering that steel enterprises are losing money, the willingness to raise prices is strong, and it is expected that the billets will run firm tomorrow.
Iron ore today: **Weak
In the context of steel mill maintenance, the output of hot metal is still expected to decline, and the macro optimistic expectations have weakened compared with the previous period, the market sentiment is bearish, and the relatively good is still supported by low inventory, and it is expected that the mine price will be under pressure tomorrow.
Today's coke: stable to strong
Recently, the arrival of steel mills has been blocked, and the coke in the plant is at a low level, so the enthusiasm for coke procurement is good. However, in the off-season, the maintenance of steel mills has increased, which is negative for the raw material end, and the space is relatively limited.
Scrap today: Slightly weaker
At present, iron ore is at a high level, coupled with the fourth round of coke increases, and the fundamentals of scrap steel are good. However, the policy has entered a vacuum period, and the focus of the finished steel market has shifted to the industrial reality level, and the short-term scrap rally may be inhibited by the finished product, and it is expected that the scrap steel will rise slightly tomorrow.
Today's Pig Iron: The Lord Steady Tone
Today, the black series continues to weaken, the bullish sentiment in the market has cooled down, and the pig iron enterprises have remained stable. At present, the downstream demand for pig iron is still limited, but considering that with the support of raw material costs, the further downward drive is not large, and it is expected that pig iron will be adjusted tomorrow.
Fourth, comprehensive views
The current market is mainly pessimistic, resulting in a short-term market under relative pressure, but from the perspective of the magnitude of the finished market, the pressure resistance is still strong. In addition, with the cooling of many places across the country, the market demand for coal has increased, so from the perspective of raw materials, the current trend of strong finished products has not changed. It is expected that tomorrow's steel prices will rise steadily, with a range of 10-30 yuan.