Putin, who has free his hands, secretly meets with Nazarbayev Is he planning to settle accounts afte

Mondo International Updated on 2024-01-31

Russian Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov revealed to reporters on December 20 that Putin held a private meeting with Kazakh former Nazarbayev and refused to disclose the content of the meeting.

Now Kazakhstan is Tokayev, and before Putin's private meeting, Nazarbayev is obviously not just reminiscing, otherwise there is nothing to keep secret about the details of the meeting with old friends. Putin wants to start the layout of Central Asia at this time node after the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Nursultan Nazarbayev (NayeWho is it?From 1991, when the Kazakh State gained independence from the Soviet Union, it served as the founding state of Kazakhstan** until 2019. The youth of Nazarbayev received a Soviet education, became a steelworker, was appreciated by the leadership, and gradually rose through the ranks. In April 1990, the 50-year-old Nazarbayev served as the ** of Kazakhstan, which was a rare young Zhuang faction in the Soviet Union's gerontocracy at that time, and 3 years younger than the 53-year-old Gorbachev, who served as the general secretary of the Communist Party of China in the Soviet Union.

On July 31, 1991, when the Soviet Union was on the verge of disintegration, Gorbachev, Yeltsin and Naye held tripartite talks in Moscow and decided to establish a new alliance of sovereign states based on socialism, with Naye as prime minister in charge of forming a cabinet. If successful, at the age of 51, he will be the youngest in the history of the Soviet Union. It's a pity that 19 days later, the 819 incident broke out, and the Soviet Union was gone. Kazakhstan did not become independent until 16 December, when it passed a resolution, and was the last of all the member states to be "independent". Therefore, Nazarbayev was a staunch pro-Soviet faction, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, he was a staunch pro-Russian faction.

Nazarbayev quickly rectified the situation at home and abroad after the independence of Kazakhstan.

First of all, the 1,400 nuclear bombs left over from the Soviet Union were quickly disposed of. Because Na Ye knows very well that a nuclear bomb without strength is like an AK given to a child, and no country can rest assured. Second, it will take two years to control the food**, so that the people can eat their stomachs first, and then promote privatization in stages to alleviate social contradictions. Kazakhstan's economy improved in 1996 and was the fastest economic turnaround among the CIS countries.

Third, Kazakhstan is located in the center of the Eurasian continent and has been a battleground for soldiers since ancient times. Naye leased the Baikonur cosmodrome to Russia, promising Moscow not to allow the United States to interfere. At the same time, it discussed the general principles of Islam with Turkey and other Palestinian countries, regarded China as a brother of the Asian nation, and actively cooperated with the Belt and Road Initiative to perfectly solve the geopolitical crisis in Kazakhstan brought about by the collapse of the Soviet Union. Na Ye will be good at dancing with long sleeves, and occasionally play with Qi Chu to the extreme, and his reputation is "multi-directional foreign policy".

Nazarbayev came out of the Soviet system, full of regret about the collapse of the Soviet machine, and had a natural affinity for his successor, Russia. Of course, Na Ye's ability to serve as a ** in Kazakhstan for nearly 30 years is inseparable from Moscow's support. After Putin took office, Naye was the staunchest supporter of Putin in Kazakhstan.

However, the current Kazakh ** Tokayev, who grew up after the independence of Kazakhstan, does not look at the relationship between Kazakhstan and Moscow like the old leader Naye.

On November 24 this year, at the CSTO summit, Tokayev replied to the Belarusian ** Lukashenko's speech in person and said that confronting the West is a matter for Belarus and Moscow, and has nothing to do with Kazakhstan, and the CSTO does not need to prepare for the NATO threat.

Tokayev is right in saying that the CSTO led by Russia is only a quasi-military alliance, while the confrontation between NATO and Moscow is geopolitical, including economic, political, cultural, and diplomatic aspects, and the CSTO is not responsible for this.

As early as May last year, at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Tokayev made it clear in front of Putin that he opposes the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk and opposes the use of force to change the status quo. After returning from an angry Putin, in June he shut down Kazakhstan's oil export pipeline through Russia on the grounds of "cleaning up unexploded bombs from World War II" and "environmental problems". The incident did not subside until July.

In the past, in the eyes of Naye and Putin, Tokayevny was completely a "good baby" image and had no offensive power at all.

In 2019, as soon as Tokayev took office, he changed the capital Astana to the name of Nazarbayev, Nur-Sultan, and expressed his loyalty to the front. In January 2022, a color revolution broke out in Kazakhstan, and Tokayev hurriedly invited Russia to intervene, and with the help of the Russian army, the riots were quickly quelled.

Back at the end of Nazarbayev's rule, there was a slight attempt to break free from Russian control. But now, Tokayev is actively inviting Moscow to send troops to quell the rebellion, which means "bowing to the courtiers". In Putin's view, relying on Tokayev's personal ability is not strong, he should be better controlled than Nazarbayev, and he is also happy to clear up all kinds of political problems left by Nakyaev.

In June 2022, the Constitution of Kazakhstan deleted the clause on "first **", "sanctified" Naye, and in January this year, the "First ** Law" was repealed, and Naye's status became general**. With Putin's acquiescence, Tokayev dismissed almost all of Naye's posts and completely drove the Na family out of Kazakhstan**.

Tokayev took the knife from Naye, and Putin saw it in his eyes, so he naturally knew the contradictions behind the two. Putin has always believed that Tokayev would be more deferential than before. Unexpectedly, Tokayev had a strategy, but he was just forbearing, waiting for the right moment to oppose the guest.

In February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, and the two sides fell into a protracted war, and Putin was isolated by the entire Western world. After confirming that Moscow was in a quagmire, Tokayev systematically and consciously broke free from Moscow's control, and then the aforementioned events happened.

From the perspective of the Kazakh state, evaluating a series of measures taken by Tokayev after coming to power, he himself can definitely be regarded as a "wise man". First of all, maintaining neutrality between the United States and Russia, as a member of the CSTO, is not obviously biased towards Russia, but it does not turn its face, even if it is "correct" to criticize Putin, it is even less biased towards the United States.

Second, to increase economic and trade with China, Tokayev studied Chinese at Beijing Language and Culture University in 1983, and is still fluent in Chinese, more aware of China's potential than Nazarbayev.

According to the data of the Statistical Service of Kazakhstan, the amount of China and Kazakhstan in 2022 will reach 241500 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 341%, of which 131 were imported from China to KazakhstanUS$700 million, an increase of 347%, China's exports to Kazakhstan 109US$800 million, a year-on-year increase of 335%, China imports agricultural products from Kazakhstan 4US$8.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1235%。The import and export of China and Kazakhstan are all growing rapidly and positively.

Historically, Kazakhstan was ruled by the Golden Horde, the Dzungar Khanate, Tsarist Russia, and the Soviet Union. The root cause is that Kazakhstan is a small country and a poor people, and the surrounding geopolitical situation is complicated. Therefore, Kazakhstan in 1991 was extremely reluctant to separate from Moscow, and it was very difficult to live after independence, and it has always relied on its big brother Russia for help.

Now the situation is that Tokayev is keenly aware of the hope he is in, and he desperately wants to stop following the old path, but to change his life against the sky. Moscow and the CSTO's blind use of words such as threats and deterioration of the situation are, in Tokayev's view, essentially Cold War mentality, and like the United States, they are thinking about themselves. The CSTO's mission of protection for Kazakhstan has been accomplished, and it is only a matter of time before it disengages.

As for the meeting between Putin and Na Ye this time, on the one hand, it is to test the old leader's attitude towards Russia, and on the other hand, it wants to send a signal that the Russian army can help Tokayev quell the rebellion, and it can also help Na Ye.

However, if Naye's strategy is still **, he should be able to see Putin's intentions and know how to do it, which is really good for Kazakhstan.

Related Pages