There is still a month left before the 2024 Taiwan "two elections" vote, and the blue-green** announced the latest poll results on the 13th.
Among them, the 88th wave of the pro-green ** "Beautiful Island Electronic News" shows that the support of the three groups of candidates has declined slightly when the middle voters tend to wait and see and do not express their positions. **Candidate "Lai Xiaopei" has a support rating of 347%, and the Kuomintang candidate "Hou Kangpei" is 312%, and the difference between the two sides is 35 percentage points, while the People's Party candidate "Ke Yingpei" accounted for 168%。Cross-analysis and comparison found that "Hou Kangpei" ranked first in the support of "Shuangbei" (i.e., Taipei City and New Taipei City) and "Taozhu Zhumiao" (i.e., Taoyuan City, Hsinchu City, Hsinchu County, and Miaoli County), and the base camp of New Taipei City ranked first with 327% maintained the lead, and Taipei City's support increased by 2 percentage points compared with the previous time to 315%, overtaking "Lai Xiao Pei".
Taiwan's "United Daily News" analysis pointed out that this poll is compared with the 77th wave (implemented on November 21), and it can be found that among the 20 to 29-year-old age group, Ke Wenzhe's support has increased from 390% slipped to 32 today4, and Lai Qingde from 234% rose slightly to 247%, Hou Youyi 247% slipped slightly to 238％。From the analysis of the polls, it can be seen that Ke Wenzhe, who has led the way among young people, has loosened the vote source, and it is not obvious to turn to blue or green at present, and winning young votes has also become the focus of the confrontation between the two major parties in the final stage of the election campaign.
The poll released by TVBS, which is slightly pro-blue, on the 13th shows that the support of "Lai Xiaopei" is 36%, a slight increase of 2 percentage points from the last time (after registration on November 26);The support of "Hou Kangpei" was 32%, a slight increase of 1 percentage point;The support of "Ke Yingpei" was 22%, down 1 percentage point, which was the lowest point since the survey in May. In addition, the proportion of undecided voters was reduced to 9 per cent.
In terms of political party tendencies, 93% of those who agree with it support "Lai Xiao Pei", an increase of 5 percentage points from the last timeThe proportion of KMT members who support "Hou Kangpei" remains at 87%;And 82% of the people who agree with the People's Party support "Ke Yingpei". Neutral voters' support for "Lai Xiao Pei" increased by 3 percentage points to 28 percent, support for "Hou Kang Pei" also increased by 2 percentage points to 23 percent, and support for Ke Ying decreased by 4 percentage points to 21 percent.
Combining the results of two polls, it can be found thatThe blue and green battalions have basically held their base, and most of their supporters have returned. After the blue-white break, Ke Wenzhe's support rate continued to be **, and he was hovering at the danger line of 20%, and the votes of middle voters and young voters were loosened, and it was not ruled out that he would be "abandoned on insurance" at the last moment.
Wang Jinping, former head of the legislature of the Taiwan region, took over Hou Youyi's post as president of the Taiwan Support Association on 7 July, and invited the chairmen of the local county and city councils in the Lanying who had previously supported Guo Taiming's candidacy to have dinner at noon, hoping that the Lanying camp would be united. According to Taiwan media reports, Wang Jinping's banquet included "all local powerful people in the blue camp", such as former Yunlin County Mayor Zhang Rongwei and Pingtung County Assembly Speaker Zhou Dianlan, who has quit the Kuomintang, and Nantou County Assembly Speaker He Shengfeng were all invited.
As soon as "King Qiao" (Wang Jinping is known as "King Qiao" in the Kuomintang, meaning that he is very good at mediation), Zhang Rongwei, Kinmen County Assembly Speaker Hong Yundian, "Penghu King" Lin Bingkun, Qiantai Dong County Mayor Wu Junli, Hualien County People's Representative Fu Laiqing, Hsinchu City Assembly Speaker Xu Xiurui, Kuomintang "Central Standing Committee" Chen Zongxing, former People's Representative Chen Gende, former Kuomintang Secretary General Li Qianlong, former Taipei City Mayor Hao Longbin and others were all invited to attend. Zhou Dianlian, the speaker of the Pingtung County Council, who had a tense relationship with the Kuomintang because of "supporting Guo" in the past, also arrived at about 3 p.m. that day.
It is rumored that Xie Dianlin, speaker of Changhua County, and He Shengfeng, speaker of Nantou County, who refused to attend, said that Xie Dianlin would come to visit him on the 13thHe Shengfeng just returned to Taiwan on the 11th, and he will continue to contact He.
Wang Jinping led everyone to be interviewed at 2 o'clock in the afternoon, saying, "Today, the entire blue camp territory is complete." He said that when he took over as the president of the support association, he was responding to the situation, alleviating the things that were not going well in all aspects, and dismantling the problems step by step, and the situation would become smoother and smoother. After this meal, does it mean that the local blue has been successfully integrated?Wang Jinping said that it was "almost complete." Taiwan media reported that Wang Jinping asked various local factions to help mobilize during the dinner and put forward issues that could move the people.
Hao Longbin said in an interview that Guo Taiming, who originally advocated "being in the opposition alliance and going to be removed from the shelves, is very attractive to young people and intellectual science and technology elements."Therefore, it is necessary to unite all forces, and it is more important to invite Guo Taiming back, now is a critical moment, and I hope Guo Taiming can play the role of defender.
The "Cross-Strait Observation" column of Macao's "Xinhua Macao Daily" pointed out that judging from the actual situation, the return of local factional forces is inevitable. On the one hand, the so-called "if the skin does not exist, Mao will be attached", they originally believed that Guo Taiming would run for election in 2024, and they attached themselves to Guo Taiming because of the strong financial resources of "Guo Dong". Now that Guo Taiming has abandoned the election, this plan has failed, so it can only be "turning back". On the other hand, these local factional forces will also participate in the election of county mayors or county and city councilors in the 2026 "nine-in-one" election, and some of them will also seek to be elected as county and city councilors. At that time, it must also have the support of the Kuomintang, otherwise it will be difficult to achieve the wish.
The commentary said that after Guo Taiming abandoned the election, some local factional figures who had miscalculated could no longer constitute a "threat" to the Kuomintang. However, we must also guard against two tendencies, one is to switch to Ke Wenzhe because of "anger", and the other is to "discourage" and simply not go out to vote. Therefore, inviting Wang Jinping to "go out of the mountains" and mobilize local factional forces to return to the Kuomintang is a powerful way to guard against these two tendencies. And now, the "Golden Ou" of the pan-blue puzzle is left with the "corner" of Guo Taiming in the end. After Wang Jinping "came out of the mountain", Hou Youyi has already received most of the votes of "Guo fans", if Guo Taiming can publicly stand up to support Hou Youyi, it will have a more "plus" effect.
And just today, Zhu Lilun, chairman of the Kuomintang Party, pointed out at the "Central Standing Meeting" that since the formation of "Hou Kangpei", the morale of the Blue Army has been greatly boosted, and the Kuomintang has done internal reference rolling polls every day8 percentage points. The Kuomintang will continue to work harder to win the support of local and voters among young people and voters in the south.
According to Taiwan's "United Network" report, Changhua County and Mei Town Sugar Friends Li Li Chang He Jisheng was previously reported to accept the mainland landing reception, ** candidate Lai Qingde campaign headquarters took the opportunity to say that He Jisheng had been in the "Lieutenant Governor' Hou' Aid Association" to accept the Kuomintang candidate Hou Youyi's flag, in this regard, Hou Office yesterday (12th) shouted not to use the inferior means of "smearing red". Zheng Wencan, deputy director of Taiwan's administrative organs, said in an interview at the annual meeting of donors for the 67th anniversary of the founding of the Taiwan Tourism Association on the 13th that the mainland's so-called "means of interfering in elections" is "distorting democracy" and respects the progress of judicial investigation.
Recently, an obvious phenomenon is that ** has begun to frequently concoct mainland issues. Taiwan's defense department announced that at 11:52 a.m. on the 7th, it detected a balloon floating on the mainland crossing the so-called "center line of the strait," and on the same day, it reported that from 6 a.m. on the 7th to 6 a.m. on the 8th, a total of 26 military aircraft of the mainland were detected, and 10 of them continued to be active around the Taiwan Strait, of which 15 military planes crossed the so-called "center line of the strait" and its extension line and entered the airspace southwest of Taiwan. Taiwan's foreign affairs department said on the 8th that the mainland has not fulfilled its commitments to those Latin American countries that have severed foreign relations with Taiwan. Some observers believe that the authorities' hyping up of this series of issues, as well as their recent frequent creation of various issues attacking the mainland to stir up cross-strait tensions, are at a time when the current election situation on the island is in a state of complicated and subtle changesIt is hoped that the cross-strait issue will continue to heat up, so that it can facilitate its usual "anti-China card" and "red card" in the election.
And ***'s choice to manipulate the "red card" this time is very subtle, directly linking Hou Youyi with the local governor. Observation pointed out that in the 2024 election, although in terms of leaders, the support rate has always been in the leading position, but a common view of the people on the island is that the majority of the seats of public representatives in the legislature cannot be allowed, because the government has been in power for eight years, the supervision system has disappeared, and the problem of gangsterism and corruption has grown. Even if it is not able to be removed from the shelves in the end, the people on the island want the legislature to really play a role. On the other hand, in last year's "nine-in-one" election, Tsai Ing-wen directly ordered the whole party to support Lin Zhijian to the end, and after the latter's fraud was confirmed, the credibility of the entire Mesozoic Era was almost completely wiped out. In addition to targeting Hou Youyi, the most direct point of this smear claim that the so-called "mainland interferes in the election" is to closely link Hou Youyi with the local forces of the KuomintangObviously, he wanted to manipulate the issue of "smearing red" every time there was a local campaign in the next month, so as to tie the hands and feet of the Kuomintang.
In the "three-legged governor" election, the third place behind in the polls is often easily marginalized. First faded out of the stage**, then weakened in volume, and finally the structural collapse of the polls. This is an unfavorable situation that the People's Party camp represented by Ko Wenzhe urgently needs to reverse.
The People's Party's Ke Wenzhe camp has launched a self-made program "KPTV" on the YouTube platform since December 7, conducting 8 hours of live broadcast every day, saying that in the future, if the operation is proficient, the live broadcast time will be gradually extended. Ko Wenzhe said that there has never been a way in Taiwan's history to use continuous live broadcast to fight election campaigns, but the reason why this happened is because he is afraid to turn on the TV at night to watch it, because every station is scolding him.
It has been observed that since Ke Wenzhe started the live broadcast, he has not had as many rules and regulations as the TV station, so he can restore his true nature, and he has no scruples when he is in the auxiliary election for the People's Party's "little chicken" platform, and fights "mud warfare" with "non-stop speech", artillery fire is everywhere, and he fires left and right, not only to "smear" Hou Youyi and Zhao Shaokang as "urgent reunification", but also to scold Lai Qingde as "** turtle grandson";It is necessary not only to denounce the "transitional justice" of the authorities, but also to choke Hou Youyi, the Kuomintang owes 9 to retired party workersWhy don't you pay back 800 million yuan (NT$)?And ignoring it completely is exactly the evil act of the "party property committee" of the *** authorities to freeze the "party property" of the Kuomintang. Suddenly claiming that he is still a "dark green" position in his heart, he will follow Tsai Ing-wen's foreign affairs line, suddenly claiming that someone will pay him $200 million to serve as his "deputy", and when people question it, he tries to push it off with "this page has been turned".
The frequent use of Ko Wenzhe's vain attempt to regain the spotlight with a dense agenda setting is also very obvious: it will accelerate the imbalance of Ko Wenzhe's personality.
Guo Zhengliang, a former public opinion representative who has withdrawn from ***, said in TVBS's political discussion program "News Talk" that because Ke Wenzhe could not handle the big scene like blue and green, Ke Wenzhe decided to return to KPTV again, using Facebook's basic fans (currently about 2.2 million) to attack, "If someone responds, you can occupy the ** page, I think his strategy is like this, in the process of this firefight, you can score one point over there, one point on this side."
Guo Zhengliang said that the original motivation of voters who support the People's Party is that they do not like the blue and green parties, and if they can evoke the negative memory of the people of the blue and green parties, Ke's votes will come back, but the blue and green parties know this well, so they take a cold treatment of Ke Wenzhe.
Author丨Mi Er, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News and column manager.