The U.S.-China relationship has recently seen a significant strategic cooling for the first time since 2018, which is a relatively rare occurrence. Since Trump launched the first war, Sino-US relations have become increasingly confrontational, and after experiencing Hong Kong**, the new crown epidemic, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the balloon incident, etc., Sino-US relations have been declining.
At the root of this situation lies in the fact that the United States has placed its hegemonic position on the international order that it has established. From the point of view of the United States itself, this is understandable, after all, the international order is only maintained when it is in its own interests, and if American hegemony declines, it will not only decline its international status, but also have more complex and fatal consequences.
But the dilemma for the United States is that the current neoliberal order is still the basic condition for its hegemony, and it is very difficult to change. The United States needs the neoliberal order, but fears that China will rise to replace them, and yet China's rise depends on the neoliberal order, which is a very complicated and ironic thing for the United States. This is manifested in the fact that the United States needs China's manufacturing industry to reduce its own internal inflationary pressure, the United States also needs China to buy Treasury bonds to support American hegemony and balance a part, and the United States also needs to rely on China's capabilities in global governance.
The same is true for China. One of the reasons for China's development is its successful market-oriented reforms and deep integration into the global market, which naturally has the benefits of the neoliberal order. On the other hand, China will also face corresponding external pressures and costs of this order, such as the risk of excessive liberalization and the possibility of strong US intervention, so China's continued self-reform is still strongly influenced by the international order. It is also true that the United States can impose no small monetary and fiscal policy restrictions on us through the hegemony of the dollar.
Therefore, there will always be a need for both sides to cool down, and whether it can be achieved depends on whether the costs of confrontation can be balanced. Relatively speaking, the United States still has the initiative, but it is unable to launch an effective attack, and at the same time, there is still no way to effectively alleviate the internal contradictions, and the United States is still unable to get rid of its demand for China. At the same time, China also has a need for cooperation with the United States, but this demand for cooperation is more consistent and stable than that of the United States, so China will be relatively active when the United States needs it.
But it's clear that China is less willing to cooperate when it expects more action from the U.S. as it cools down. China is willing to cool down, but that doesn't mean China just needs to cool down. Judging from the recent interactions, China and the United States still have certain results in financial, monetary, and first-class cooperation, and China can also start a series of economic stimulus and financial reforms. But in other areas, such as arms control negotiations, China and the United States have only very early contacts, because their main goal is to create an atmosphere, but they cannot hide the fact that there is no need for negotiations due to the asymmetry of strategic forces between China and the United States. Judging from the official statements at the summit, China still lacks trust in the United States, so it is still unclear whether the summit will be held.
On the whole, the rapid development of various tasks after the current round of cooling down between China and the United States shows that in fact, the need for cooperation is relatively large. But we don't have to hope much for how much we can achieve. It is now clear that China does not trust the United States, but it is willing to talk about cooperation and has actions to improve internal reforms with the help of external conditions. For others, there is no need to expect too much, and Sino-US relations cannot go back to the past.