[Information guide].
The EU will carry out reforms to cut spending.
U.S. consumer confidence rose by the most since early 2021.
Bank of Canada: Interest rate hikes have begun to slow economic activity significantly.
[Market Information].
EU finance and economy ministers have agreed to carry out spending cuts that will give member states more time to cut debt, curb spending, and define the EU's ability to invest in key areas such as defense.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet plans to approve a draft budget for the fiscal year starting in April, which will be the first spending reduction in 12 years, Nikkei reported. Japan's 2024 fiscal proposal calls for the allocation of 1 trillion yen in reserves for projects to ease the burden of inflation and boost wages**. Fumio Kishida's cabinet will vote on the draft annual budget on Friday.
Fed's Harker said that the Fed does not need to raise interest rates anymore and will not cut interest rates immediately, and should keep interest rates stableThe work of bringing inflation under control is not yet done, and the inflation outlook is improving.
ECB Chief Economist Lien said that while some aspects are encouraging, wage data and de facto inflation slowing are not persistent, meaning that it is not yet time to declare victory.
The Bank of Canada said in the minutes of its December meeting that rate hikes have begun to slow economic activity significantly, but risks to the inflation outlook remain, particularly from housing, which could hinder the work of bringing inflation down to 2% and may still need to raise interest rates. There is not enough data for them to believe that inflation will continue to fall to 2% in a sustainable way.
The Bank of Paraguay** cut its policy rate to 675%, in line with expectations.
As Americans became more optimistic about the economy and the labor market, U.S. consumer confidence rose by the most since the start of 2021 in December. According to the released data, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 110 in December from a revised 101 in November7。An expected indicator of the outlook six months from now has risen as consumers see better business conditions, incomes and labor market outlooks.
The current account deficit in the third quarter of the United States was $200.3 billion, compared with an expected deficit of $196 billion, and the previous value was revised from a deficit of $212.1 billion to a deficit of $216.8 billion.
Existing home sales in the United States unexpectedly increased in November, home prices rose 4% year-on-year, and mortgage rates hit their lowest level since June. The contract rate on 30-year fixed mortgage loans fell 24 basis points to 683%。Existing home sales may have reached cyclical lows, according to the analysis.
The seasonally adjusted current account surplus in the eurozone in October was 34 billion euros, compared with a previous surplus of 312300 million euros.
The UK CPI recorded -0 m/m in November2%, the first negative number since July this year. UK interest rate swaps are fully priced in the BoE to cut rates for the first time in May 2024.
The UK retail price index rose 5% year-on-year in November3%, expected to rise 57%, the previous value rose 61%；Month-on-month decrease of 02%, expected to rise 02%, the previous value decreased by 02%。
Germany's GFK consumer confidence index for January was -251, expected -27, previous value -278。
Germany's PPI fell 05%, expected to drop 03%, the previous value decreased by 01%；down 7 percent year-on-year9%, expected to drop 75%, the previous value decreased by 11%.
[Global Market Dynamics].
Dow Jones Index**127% at 37,082 points, the S&P 500 index **147% at 469835 points, NASDAQ **15% at 1477794 points.
comex***0.38% at 2044$4 oz., comex***053% to 24$45 oz.
U.S. oil contract in February next year **016% to 73$82 barrel. Cloth oil contract in March next year**028% to 79$15 barrel.
The 5-year Treasury yield**92 basis points to 385%, 10-year Treasury yield**84 basis points at 3852%, 30-year Treasury yield**53 basis points to 3988%。
U.S. Dollar Index**03% at 10243, most of the non-US currencies are **, and the euro is **0 against the US dollar35% to 10943, GBP/USD**075% at 12640, AUD/USD**048% to 06730, USDJPY**019% to 14356, USDCHF**021% to 08627。
On December 20, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 16 points to 70966；The onshore yuan officially closed at 7 against the US dollar at 16:30 Beijing time1336, 99 points higher than the official **price** of the previous trading day. At 03:00 Beijing time on the 21st, the night market closed at 71382, compared with the previous trading day night *** 182 points. The offshore yuan was quoted at 7 against the US dollar at 05:59 Beijing time on the 21st1507, compared with the end of the previous trading day **298 points.
[Intraday focus].
19:00 UK CBI retail sales spread (December).
21:30 Canada Retail Sales (Oct) MoM.
21:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 16.
21:30 U.S. real GDP Q3 annualized QoQ final value.
21:30 U.S. Q3 real personal consumption expenditures Q3 final.
21:30 The final annualized QoQ of the core PCE price index in the third quarter of the United States.
21:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (December).
23:00 Conference Board Leading Indicator MoM (Nov).
Editor: Ma Mengwei.
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