[Information guide].
From 18 December, the trading hours of interbank foreign currency pairs and foreign currency money markets will be extended.
People's Bank of China: Steadily and solidly promote the internationalization of the RMB.
State Administration of Foreign Exchange: Orderly expansion of high-level opening up of the foreign exchange sector.
Fed's Williams: There's no real talk of a rate cut right now.
The Central Bank of Russia raised its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 16%.
[Market Information].
CFETS announced that it intends to extend the trading hours of interbank foreign currency pairs and foreign currency money markets to 3 a.m. (Beijing time) the next day from December 18. Extended trading hours support inquiry, auction and matching transaction modes. The trading hours of the foreign currency swap matching trading mode remain unchanged for the time being.
The People's Bank of China requires that the internationalization of RMB be steadily and solidly promoted, the construction of overseas RMB markets should be improved, and the ability of cross-border RMB business to serve the real economy should be enhanced. Deepen the reform and opening up of the foreign exchange field, and promote the facilitation of investment and financing.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) announced that, on the basis of the existing pilot project for high-level opening-up of cross-border investment, it has decided to expand the pilot area to Shanghai, Jiangsu Province, Guangdong Province (including Shenzhen), Beijing Municipality, Zhejiang Province (including Ningbo City), Hainan Province and other regions.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) calls for orderly expansion of high-level opening-up in the field of foreign exchange. Strengthen macro-prudential counter-cyclical adjustment, enrich the risk response toolbox, reasonably guide foreign exchange market expectations, prevent the risk of abnormal cross-border capital flows, maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and resolutely maintain the bottom line of no systemic financial risks.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange pointed out that in November, China's foreign exchange market operated steadily and well, and cross-border capital flows were basically balanced. With the improvement of the internal and external environment, China's foreign exchange market will have more foundation and conditions to maintain stable operation in the future. According to the data, in November, banks settled 1,241.2 billion yuan in foreign exchange and sold 1,417.3 billion yuan.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Georgieva said that even if the Fed signals that it will pivot policy next year, other central banks around the world will not rush to ease their efforts to fight inflation.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said U.S. regulators will make AI and the threat it could pose a top priority in 2024.
New York Fed President Williams said that there is no real discussion about cutting interest rates at the moment, focusing on whether the interest rate policy is in the right place, and not speculating on the direction of interest rates. The economy and inflation remain highly uncertain, and the Fed must be prepared to raise interest rates again if needed.
Atlanta Fed President Bostic has said that a rate cut is not imminent, but staff have been instructed to begin working on possible principles and thresholds to guide the rate cut process. Two 25bp rate cuts are expected in 2024, with the first coming "sometime" in Q3, provided that progress in inflation expectations continues.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he did not rule out a rate cut at its March meeting next year. If the data is supportive, it will support a rate hike, but if inflation continues on its current path, a rate cut may be appropriate. Interest rates are expected to be lower than they are now next year, but not significantly.
ECB Governing Council member Villeroy said that the ECB will return inflation to 2% by 2025, and barring unforeseen circumstances, the current cycle of interest rate hikes is over, and there is no timetable for rate cuts. ECB Governing Council member Muller said it was too early to talk about a near-term rate cut.
Greece's Ministry of Finance announced that Greece has prepaid 52 of the first round of bailout packages provided by eurozone countries during the debt crisis900 million euros in loans, which were due in 2024 and 2025.
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said he would not comment on daily foreign exchange fluctuations;It is hoped that the currency exchange rate can reflect the fundamentals in a stable manner, and pay close attention to market dynamics.
Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong said that the launch of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is an urgent task facing central banks at present. Stablecoins raise concerns about financial stability and pose a challenge to central bank operations.
Russia's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 16%, in line with market expectations. The head of the Central Bank of Russia, Nabiullina, said that the end of the rate hike cycle is near. The Central Bank of Russia expects Russia's GDP growth to exceed 3% in 2023, higher than in October**The CPI rose by nearly 7%-75% upper limit.
Argentine Economy Minister Caputo said there would be no major foreign exchange depreciation in the short termArgentine Milley still wants to be (full) dollarized.
Central Bank of Turkey: Inflation is expected to remain in single digits in 2026, and Turkey wants foreign investors to invest in ** bonds.
U.S. industrial production rose 02%, expected to rise 03%, the previous value decreased by 06% corrected to minus 09%。
The preliminary US Markit manufacturing PMI in December was 482. Expected 493, the previous value of 494；The preliminary PMI of the services sector was 513. Expected 506, the previous value of 508。
The euro area had a seasonally adjusted account surplus of 10.9 billion euros in October, with an expected surplus of 10 billion euros and a previous surplus of 9.2 billion eurosThe non-seasonally adjusted** surplus was 11.1 billion euros, compared with a previous surplus of 10 billion euros.
Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI in December was 442. Expected 446, November final value 442；The preliminary PMI of the services sector was 481. Expected 49, November final value 487；The preliminary composite PMI was 47, expected to be 48, and the final value in November was 476。
Germany's preliminary manufacturing PMI in December was 431. Expected 432, November final value 426；The preliminary PMI of the services sector was 484. Expected 498, November final value 496；The preliminary composite PMI was 467, expected 482, November final value 478。
France's preliminary manufacturing PMI in December was 42, a 43-month low, with an expectation of 433, November final value 429；The preliminary PMI of the services sector was 443, a 37-month low, expected 46, November final value of 454；The preliminary composite PMI was 437, a 37-month low, expected 45, November final value of 446。
France's final CPI rose 3 percent year-on-year in November5%, and the expected and preliminary values are both 34%, and the final value in October was 4%;Month-on-month, it decreased by 02%, expected to drop 02%, the initial value decreased by 02%, and the final value rose 01%。
Japan's preliminary manufacturing PMI in December was 477, the previous value of 483；The service PMI was 52, the previous value was 508；Integrated PMI 504, the previous value of 496。
[Global Market Dynamics].
The Dow Jones rose 292%0.15% at 37305At 16 points, it continued to hit a record high, and the S&P 500 index rose 249% to 4719At 19 points, the Nasdaq index rose 285% at 1481392 points.
comex*** rose 096% at 2033$8 an ounce, comex*** rose 3 for the week84% to 24$17 oz.
The U.S. oil contract for January next year rose 079% to 71$79 barrel;The oil contract for February next year rose 14% at 76$9 barrel.
The yield on the 5-year Treasury note rose 04 basis points at 3914%, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 09 basis points at 3915%, and the yield on the 30-year Treasury note fell 3 basis points to 4011%。
The U.S. dollar index rose 063% at 1025936, down 135%。EUR/USD fell 089% at 10895, weekly up 122%；GBP/USD fell 066% to 12683, up 10598%；AUD/USD rose 004% to 06702, up 189%；USD/JPY rose 023% at 142212, down 191%；USD/CAD fell 024% to 13375, down 155%；USD/CHF rose 031% to 08702, down 111%。
On December 15, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 133 points to 70957；The onshore yuan officially closed at 7 against the US dollar at 16:30 Beijing time0987, compared with the official **price**314 points on the previous trading day, Beijing time closed at 03:00 on the 16th at night1230, compared with the previous trading day night *** 131 points;The offshore yuan was quoted at 7 against the US dollar at 05:59 Beijing time on the 16th1346, compared with the previous trading day**110 points, weekly accumulation** nearly 600 points.
[Intraday focus].
17:00 Germany IFO Business Climate Index (December).
21:30 Fed's Goolsbee interview.
23:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (December).
Editor: Ma Mengwei.
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