What the Chinese side wants, Vietnam gives it very simply!A major crisis is heading for the Philippines
Over the years, with the joint efforts of the People's Republic of China and ASEAN countries, the situation in the South China Sea has generally stabilized, creating a favorable environment for the development of the region. However, in order to pursue their own interests and achieve their geopolitical goals, some foreign forces have constantly created incidents on the South China Sea issue in an attempt to create differences among regional countries. The Philippines and the United States are prime examples. Although the Philippines, as a country bordering the South China Sea, has some differences with China, these issues are supposed to be internal affairs between China and the Philippines.
However, since Marcos Jr. took office, he has been working to build a closer relationship with the United States. After the tension in the South China Sea emerged, the Philippines actively invited the United States to participate in creating tensions and attracting more allies to come to support, and staged provocative actions against China in turn. In the context of the joint efforts of China and ASEAN countries to promote stability in the South China Sea, such cooperation is undoubtedly an irresponsible act for regional peace.
According to a comprehensive analysis of relevant reports by Huanqiu.com, after the recent friction between China and the Philippines in the disputed waters of the South China Sea for two consecutive days, the United States immediately issued a statement in support of the Philippines, claiming that the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the South China Sea. The implication is that the United States could intervene in the event of an armed attack by the Philippine Coast Guard, military, public vessels and aircraft in the South China Sea. This move is clearly intended to support the Philippines' violations. In addition, U.S. allies have followed suit after seeing the U.S. demonstration. Recently, the United Kingdom, Japan, the European Union and Canada issued statements in different forms, condemning China's so-called "insecurity and escalation" actions against the Philippines in the South China Sea, and calling on both sides to abide by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the 2016 South China Sea Arbitration Award.
Isn't this a situation in which the United States and the Philippines have paved the way for provocation against China and brought their allies to the stage?We all understand that both Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal have always been China's inherent territory and an inalienable part of China's Nansha Islands. This has formed a broad consensus in the international community and is fully in line with the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on archipelagos. With regard to the so-called arbitral award in 2016, China has always insisted on not accepting, participating in or recognizing it. Therefore, China's current policy and rights and interests in the South China Sea will not change because of a statement by the United States and its allies. It is worth noting that at a time when the United States and the Philippines are conspiring with their allies to provoke China, there are some signs that China may have found a way to defuse the crisis.
According to the Observer, China and Vietnam recently issued a joint statement, in which the two sides agreed to properly manage maritime differences, refrain from taking actions that complicate the situation and escalate disputes, and work together to maintain maritime stability. It is worth noting that at this critical moment, this joint statement between China and Vietnam not only redefines the relationship between the two countries in a new way and promotes the interaction between China and Vietnam, but also injects new connotations into the China-Vietnam comprehensive strategic partnership.
For a long time, due to its geographical location, the quality of its workforce and its high intellectual potential, Vietnam has become the focus of contention among many countries, including the United States. Looking at the overall situation, the South China Sea dispute is not just about the Philippines, and Vietnam is likely to have a larger share of it. Therefore, China's current strategy should be to reassure Vietnam and ASEAN as a whole and prevent them from following in the footsteps of the United States.
Only if Vietnam makes its position clear will China have good reasons to retaliate. Fortunately, at this critical juncture, the support China needs has been explicitly committed by Vietnam to jointly maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea and the region. What does this mean for the Philippines?In my opinion, the Philippines' successive provocations and attempts to co-opt allies to interfere in the situation in the South China Sea have, to some extent, elements of challenging war. Therefore, after successfully pacifying Vietnam, China may take some détente measures towards the Philippines. If this is the case, then a major crisis could be looming in the Philippines, and there is still a great deal of uncertainty about whether the Philippines will be able to withstand the possible consequences of a rupture in Sino-Philippine relations.