The situation in the South China Sea is tense and the Philippines continues to stir up the situation, so we should take the initiative to maintain our strength
Throughout 2023, the Philippines continued to provoke in the South China Sea, leading to tensions between China and the Philippines. China has taken a defensive posture, but it has failed to stop the Philippines' continued provocations. Considering the development of the situation, is it possible to move from unilateral exploitation of oil in the South China Sea to a proactive response to the provocation of the Philippine side?
This year, there have been many frictions between China and the Philippines in Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, and the Philippines has unilaterally provoked incidents. In order to maintain stability in the South China Sea, China has maintained a high degree of restraint and forbearance, and adopted a defensive strategy. However, this has failed to stop the provocative behavior of the Philippines, and China-Philippines relations are moving in an uncertain direction. Our restraint and forbearance, although we can maintain overall stability, may also make us more and more passive.
China has always pursued a strategy of active defense, emphasizing proactive offensive operations in defense. The same strategic thinking applies to the South China Sea contest with the Philippines. In the face of the provocation of the Philippine side, can we adopt an active defense strategy to protect the rights of islands and reefs, especially in the exploitation of offshore oil?
The active defense of rights and reefs is an attempt to break the Philippine side's permanent occupation of Ren'ai Jiao and other islands and reefs. The islands and reefs coveted by the Philippines have been closely monitored to prevent the Philippines from occupying them. While some may advocate the immediate recovery of all reefs, note the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea signed between China and ASEAN, which calls for no new islands and reefs to be stationed after 2003. Caution is all the more important ahead of the planned signing of a more binding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea with the 10 ASEAN countries in 2025.
In 2018, China and the Philippines signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in Oil and Gas Development, which means that the two sides will put aside disputes and jointly develop oil and gas resources in the South China Sea. However, the Philippines' provocations have made China's forbearance no longer appropriate. Given that the Philippines has shelved its cooperation agreement with China, can China unilaterally exploit oil in the waters close to the Philippines in order to safeguard its sovereign rights and interests and prevent plundering by other countries?
The Philippines is currently facing an oil shortage, and the original cooperation project with China reflects China's goodwill. However, the deterioration of the Philippines has undermined the premise of cooperation, and it is necessary for China to go it alone and no longer cooperate with the Philippines in development. In particular, when Marcos Jr. wants to bring in other countries to participate in the development of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea, it is all the more necessary for China to take proactive action to protect its own resources and stop the Philippines' arrogant behavior.
In general, China should probably adopt a strategy of active defense and active attack, and safeguard its national interests and prevent further deterioration of the situation through measures such as defending its rights on islands and reefs and unilaterally exploiting oil in the South China Sea.