In November, the increase in natural rubber output in Southeast Asia was still relatively slow. The weather in the northern and northeastern producing areas of Thailand is good, the output of raw materials is smooth, showing a gradual increase in volume expectations, and the purchase value is shaking**, but the rainfall in the southern region is continuous, and the follow-up of glue output is limited. Overall, the output of new rubber in Thailand is still low, and the purchase value of supporting raw materials is still at a relatively high level. In the first half of the year, the precipitation situation in Vietnam's producing areas still existed, inhibiting the promotion of rubber tapping, and the glue output of Werther was 6-7 percent, and it is reported that the storage and reserve status of raw materials and finished products in Vietnamese factories was far less than the level of the same period last year, which aggravated the delay in the delivery of goods. In the second half of the year, with the easing of rainy weather, the output of raw materials in Vietnam's producing areas has gradually returned to normal, but it is still in the stage of grabbing raw materials to fill the empty order.
In November, the rubber output in Yunnan production area of China was better. There was generally less rain during the month, which was conducive to glue production, but the dry content of glue was reduced due to the drop in temperatures in the second half of the month. The manufacturing load of the processing plant is relatively high, as the local rubber tapping business is about to end, rubber farmers and processing plants are interested in stockpiling raw materials, and are actively buying raw materials, supporting the purchase price of raw materials. This year, the rubber block ** is relatively small, and the import of raw materials from Myanmar and Laos has decreased, and the effect has been used in individual processing plants.
At the end of the month, about 80% of the rubber trees in the Xishuangbanna production area stopped cutting. In the middle of the month, the weather in Hainan production area improved, the utility of rubber tapping business was reduced, the output of raw materials increased significantly, the average daily glue collection increased to 4000-5000 tons, and the glue ** showed a downward trend. In the second half of the month, the phased rainfall played the role of rubber tapping, and with the approach of the winter cutting season, the enthusiasm of the processing plant for rubber collection and production has increased, driving the value of raw materials to stop falling and stabilize. As of the 30th, the procurement of glue raw materials in Yunnan production areas is about 114-11.8 yuan kg, the purchase price of the rubber block is about 98-10.4 yuan kg. The state-owned rubber factory in Hainan production area has a guiding value of 11,700 yuan for the purchase of concentrated latex raw materials, and the purchase of all latex raw materials is 12,100 yuan tons.
In November, the price range of natural rubber cargo in Southeast Asia was **. At the beginning of the month, the amount of raw materials in Southeast Asia was slow, and the overseas offer was firm. In the middle of the year, the macro atmosphere is warm, the rubber is on the rise, at the same time, the impact of precipitation in overseas local production areas, the overall release of raw materials is limited, the purchase price is resistant, the output and sales profits of processing plants are limited, the overall intention of the offer is pushed up, the market is low and the supply of goods is difficult to find, and the downstream company's trading atmosphere is general, the wait-and-see mood in the field, and a small number of real orders. Subsequently, the macro environment turned short and dragged the whole rubber to weaken, although the purchase of foreign raw materials also fell slightly, but the production and sales profits of the processing plant are still weak, and the mentality of foreign dealers is wait-and-see, and the enthusiasm of the offer is not high, and most of them are a single discussion.
The exchange rate of USD/RMB**, some Chinese merchants**, but the overall increase in positions is still cautious. As of November 30, the cargo price of Thai cigarette film glue (RSS3) was US$1,750 tonnes, up US$90 tonnes from the same period in OctoberRegular rubber (TSR20) cargo** at 1540 US dollars ton, an increase of 50 US dollars from the same period in October;The price of mixed rubber (str20 blended) cargo was US$1530-1540 ton, up US$50 tonne from the same period in OctoberThe value of the barreled latex cargo was US$1,250 tonnes, compared with US$20 tonnes in the same period in OctoberThe mainstream price of bulk latex cargo is 1120-1140 US dollars ton, compared with the same period in October **20 US dollars.
In November, the mainstream price of imported natural latex in the RMB market showed a weak trend. Southern Thailand and Vietnam are still affected by rainfall, the raw material glue is still in a relatively high state, the cost burden still exists, and the willingness of foreign dealers to ship is not strong, and the spot supply burden of China's domestic ports is not large for the time being, and the bottom of the natural latex market is still supported. In the second half of the year, the high level of the rubber market fell back, the market cautious wait-and-see sentiment was aggravated, the finished product orders of downstream products companies were insufficient, the enthusiasm was not good, the trading atmosphere in the field was quiet, and the formation of the first business offer must be dragged down, and the natural latex spot ** fell narrowly. As of November 30, the import of Taihua barreled latex in East China was 11,500 yuan ton, down 2 yuan from 300 yuan ton in the same period in October54%。Imported non-yellow bulk latex ** at 10,200 yuan ton, compared with 400 yuan ton in the same period in October, down 377%。
In the short term, due to the effect of weather factors, the speed of foreign production is slow, the storage level is not high, and due to the limited profit margin of production and sales, the willingness of foreign dealers to sell low cargo in the early stage is not strong. However, in December, Southeast Asian production areas are still in the peak season, with the easing of rainy weather, the performance of the first trend increases, the value of raw materials is expected to weaken, and in the case of limited optimization of finished product orders of downstream companies, there is still a certain bearish expectation for the market outlook, more wait-and-see mentality, the enthusiasm for the actual procurement of raw materials is general, and the natural latex spot market is suppressed. It's just that the production in Huaxia production areas has been reduced step by step, and the output of raw materials has been coming to an end, and rubber farmers and second-hand merchants are preparing for winter storage, which also forms a bottom support for rubber prices. Therefore, it is expected that the performance range of the natural latex spot market in December will be the same.