Leju Finance Li LiOn December 15, Huafu** released a review of the real estate industry.
Investment Highlights:
Event: On December 14, Beijing and Shanghai simultaneously adjusted the real estate regulation and control policies, and optimized the policies in terms of ordinary residential identification standards, down payment ratios and mortgage interest rates, aiming to better meet the rigid demand and improve the demand, and promote the healthy and stable development of real estate.
The standard of ordinary houses is relaxed
Beijing and Shanghai have simultaneously greatly relaxed the identification standards for ordinary residential buildings, and greatly increased the recognition standards for transactions, which are not higher than 8 within the 5th Ring Road50,000 yuan -6 rings are not higher than 650,000 yuan outside the ring is not higher than 450,000 yuan;Shanghai has cancelled the requirements for ordinary residences, and only the area of a single set is not higher than 144.
Under the relaxation of the standard, the proportion of ordinary residential buildings has increased significantly, and the value-added tax generated by non-ordinary residential transactions in the second-hand housing transactions in the current market will be exempted after being recognized as ordinary residences. The decline in the transaction cost of second-hand housing is conducive to the improvement of transaction liquidity in the second-hand housing market.
The down payment ratio decreases
The minimum down payment ratio for the first home has been lowered to 30% in Beijing and Shanghai. In terms of the second set, the six districts of Beijing were lowered to 50%, and the six districts of non-urban areas were reduced to 40%.The minimum down payment ratio for two sets in the six suburbs of Shanghai (Jiading, Songjiang, Fengxian, Baoshan and Jinshan) has been lowered to 40%, and the minimum is 50% in other areas. At the same time, the maximum mortgage tenure in Beijing has been restored from 25 years to 30 years.
Huafu** believes that the reduction of the down payment ratio is conducive to further promoting the release of rigid demand and improving demand. After the new policy of recognising houses and not recognising loans, the growth of second-hand housing listings brought about by the release of improved demand is further transmitted to the dilemma of unsmooth release of replacement demand, which is expected to be directly improved in the context of the decline in the proportion of down payments for second homes.
Mortgage rates have been lowered
The mortgage interest rate of the first set of commercial loans in the six districts of Beijing shall not be less than LPR+10BP (4.).3%), two sets not less than LPR + 60BP (4.).8%)；The first set of non-urban six districts is not less than LPR (4.).2%), two sets not less than LPR + 55BP (4.).75%)。The first set of Shanghai commercial loan mortgage interest rate is not less than LPR-10BP;The second set of suburban six districts is not less than LPR + 20BP (4.).4%), not less than LPR + 30BP (4.) in the six non-suburban districts5%)。
On the one hand, the reduction of mortgage interest rates will help promote the release of reasonable housing demand, reduce the pressure of loan repayment, increase residents' disposable income and increase residents' willingness to spendAt the same time, the asymmetrical reduction of mortgage interest rates in urban and suburban areas in Beijing and Shanghai also reflects the policy orientation of supporting reasonable housing demand.
Policies are working together, and the market can be expected to stabilize
Huafu believes that after the economic work conference, the real estate regulation and control policy will be synchronized at both ends of supply and demand, the demand side will focus on supporting the release of reasonable housing demand, and the supply side will meet the reasonable financing needs of non-leading enterprises without discrimination, and the continuous loose policy environment will improve residents' expectations at the same time, reverse the negative feedback situation of weak supply and demand in the market, and drive the real estate market to stabilize and recover.
Investment suggestions: Huafu ** believes that the current real estate sector has overreflected the pessimistic expectations of the market, in the current supply and demand double-end policy force, the industry is expected to stabilize and recover in the background, the investment value of the real estate sector is highlighted. It is recommended to pay attention to key leading real estate enterprises: Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, and high-quality mixed-ownership enterprises: Vanke A, Gemdale Group.
Risk warning: the scale of real estate sales fell more than expected, and the financing environment tightened more than expected.
Related company: Huafu**.