The recent PV market is full of pessimism from the inside out.
The news of factory closure, layoffs, and suspension of production comes from time to time, although it is not in China, but under the trend of global economic integration, it can feel a trace of sadness from afar.
On November 22, solar module manufacturer REC Group halted operations at its polysilicon production plant in Norway due to high electricity prices and fierce competition in the polysilicon market.
Following the suspension of REC's production, Hanwha QCELLS announced the closure of its 35GW module factory.
Earlier, European PV manufacturer Norsun announced the suspension of production at its plant in Ordal, Norway, claiming that the shutdown was mainly due to a surplus of modules in Europe**, which is affecting pricing across the solar value chain, leading to layoffs of employees by the end of the year.
In October, Singapore-based maxeon said in a statement on its website that the company would reduce its global workforce by about 15 percent and that layoffs would take place before the end of the year.
For maxeon, PV people should be no strangers. This company is a photovoltaic cell company in which TCL Zhonghuan has a stake in the IBC route, and has launched patent infringement lawsuits against Tongwei Solar and Aiko in China.
On November 2, Sunrun, a California clean energy company, released its Q3 financial report, and its performance fell sharply. According to Sunrun's CEO, the PV industry is "facing a series of difficult conditions". The company will reduce 9% of its headcount from the previous year's workforce.
Roughly speaking, five overseas PV manufacturers have announced production stoppages or layoffs, including established PV manufacturers REC, Hanwha QCELLS and Maxeon, and the overseas PV manufacturing market situation is not good.
Just now, the third-party agency Wood. McCann Woods**, China's installed solar and wind power capacity will reach 230GW this year. The new installed capacity of the domestic photovoltaic market has soared, but the market situation is hardly good.
As we all know, this year, the domestic photovoltaic industry due to overcapacity, the whole industry chain has experienced a cliff-like price cut, silicon material has fallen by about 70% since the high point at the beginning of the year, and now it has fallen to around 60,000 tons, the price of photovoltaic silicon wafers has fallen by 50%, and photovoltaic modules have also followed suit.
What's even more disturbing is that the fall below 1 yuan watt has not yet bottomed out, and there is still more room for the future market according to the institution.
Recently, Tim Buckley, director of Climate Energy Finance (CEF), an Australian think tank, said that by the end of 2024 or 2025, solar modules** could reach 0. per watt$10 threshold. 0.1 Australian dollar is 047,645 yuan, close to 0$5 per watt. "This would be significantly more than Dr. Martin Green's 0 per watt three years ago$10. ”
After making this ***, the optimistic side is that Barkley is more optimistic about the future installed market. He added that it is expected that by the end of the century, between 600 GW and 1 terawatt of new PV capacity could be added each year.
According to his installed capacity, based on China's new photovoltaic installed capacity accounting for 50% of the world's installed capacity, the new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 300GW-500GW by the end of this century. By the end of the century, however, this was a bit far away.
Another bad sign is that the operating rate of PV module factories is declining. According to industry insiders, the overall operating rate of the photovoltaic module market has dropped from about 70%-80% to 50%-60%, with an average of 60%.
A former executive of a photovoltaic head listed company said in an interview with **, "The recent operating rate is average, low because of losses, and the loss is unbearable, and the fundamental reason is because there is too much production capacity." ”
What further casts a shadow on the market prospect is that the problem of distributed photovoltaic grid connection is difficult to reappear, mandatory distribution and storage are still in place, and the time-of-use electricity price policy has hit the enthusiasm of investment.
Up to now, Hebei, Shandong, Liaoning, Henan, Guangdong, Fujian, Heilongjiang and other places have issued distributed network connection warnings.
Overall, this year's PV module shipments and new domestic installations have soared, which is similar to eating a fat man in one go, which takes time to digest and overdraft next year's growth potential.
JinkoSolar Chairman Xiande Li said at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance Shanghai Summit that this year's shipments will put pressure on next year's growth because this year's shipments have far exceeded original expectations. He judged that market demand will grow next year but not as fast as this year, "I estimate that there will be a range of 20%-30% [next year]." ”
At present, photovoltaic modules have fallen below 1 yuan watt, and it is difficult for the whole industry to achieve profitability, and at the same time, silicon materials have fallen to 60,000 tons, which is approaching.
The cost line of second- and third-tier manufacturers, the situation facing the industry is not optimistic. The industry adjustment cycle in which the remnant is king has begun. (Grassroots PV).