2023 is coming to an end, and it's time for the year-end review.
The flag set by experts at the beginning of the year, and the institution's ** for the property market, have come to be fulfilled one by one, or slapped in the face.
Unexpectedly, revenge buying a house was only popular for a month
In 2023, the economy will show a clear L-shaped trend, and it will be no exception when it comes to real estate.
From new houses, second-hand houses to the rental market, it is still facing an urgent need for recovery.
At the beginning of this year, the mask incident had just been released, and the major sales departments were crowded, and the sales could not receive customers.
Major institutions are clamoring to make up for the lost three years, and a wave of revenge consumption has emerged, and it will be too late to buy a house.
But the big surprise is -
Such a boom in buying a house lasted only one month, and "debut is the peak".
What can be seen with the naked eye is that after the Xiaoyangchun in March, the property market transactions have declined rapidly, and the second and third quarters have not returned to their highs.
In the first 11 months, the sales and sales area of commercial housing across the country fell by nearly 7% year-on-year3% and 43%。
Thinking about the prediction of major brokerages for this year's housing market,CICC believes that the area of real estate sales will rebound and turn to positive growth, and housing prices will face upward pressure locally.
GF and Haitong look forward with confidence that the turning point of the property market in 2023 may be ...... in the year
All right. Clearly said that he wanted to buy a house with revenge, but the buyer chose to let go of his hatred.
Unexpectedly, second-hand housing prices have returned to 5 years ago
What I didn't expect was that compared with new houses, the data of second-hand houses was even more unsightly.
There is a **tracking of the second-hand housing ** index published by the National Bureau of Statistics, and for several years, it has been like this-
Judging by the average data,The country's second-hand housing ** has fallen back to 2018,The first-tier cities are slightly better, the second- and third-tier cities have plummeted, and the third-tier cities have returned to the level of 2017.
The rental market has not escaped the fate of being "pulled into the water", just like we were before"Finally it's the landlord's turn to get hurt".As written, in the past, the charter company that guaranteed income during droughts and floods, and the stability of income compared to that of people in the system could not bear it
The rent has fallen, the graduation season has not picked up much, and the rent of luxury houses has also fallen by two or three percent.
Nowadays, young people and middle-class people prefer more cost-effective houses, which are larger and have lower rents.
Unexpectedly, the core city area could not withstand it
All of the above is from a global perspective.
If you can be more detailed, you can find that a lot of "unexpected" happens in places that you originally thought were "common sense".
For example, in the past few rounds of the property market cycle, the core area of the first-tier cities with a high concentration of resources has been known as the cornucopia of the property market and the perpetual motion machine of the property market.
But this year, the core area of the core city is not good, and even, it is underperforming.
Take Shenzhen and Guangzhou, for example.
Relying on the excellent location and landscape, the houses in the Shenzhen Bay area have always been the spiritual fortress of the Shenzhen property market, backed by the purchasing power of the whole country, and in recent years, it has also been soaring.
But now, Shenzhen Bay has taken the lead.
According to local ** reports,This year, the housing prices in the Shenzhen Bay community have fallen by as much as 3-4 percent
Sunshine Beach, 133 square meters of four-bedroom transactions, middle and high-rise transactions in mid-June, the transaction price fell to 22.8 million, down more than 10 million from the peak;
Hongwei Haiyi Bay, the middle floor of 142 square meters of four rooms was traded in early July, and the transaction price was 26.8 million, down 11 million from the high.
And Guangzhou's luxury housing gathering area Zhujiang New Town,This year, Xiaoyangchun is still in full swing, but in the second half of the year, it will be dumb
Poly Heart in the Central District is now only a little more than 100,000 yuan per square meter. The two rooms in Zhonghai Huacheng Bay in the net red plate can now win the ...... as long as 13-140,000 square meters
Part of the property market transaction data of Zhujiang New Town in December.
I believe that the friends who pay attention to the Guangzhou property market have this ** bamboo shoots, and the current market price, some have returned to two or three years ago.
Unexpectedly, the halo of mixed ownership was also extinguished
After talking about the market, let's talk about real estate companies.
Unexpected,This year, the flame of real estate enterprise insurance has been blown to the mixed-ownership real estate enterprises with state-owned background
Vanke and Gemdale, which were praised by banks and financial institutions as guests, were questioned by the public with a magnifying glass.
As early as 2018, Vanke shouted to survive, and its sense of crisis and conservative financial style ranked at the forefront of all real estate companies, but Vanke could not stay out of this round of large-scale cash flow pressure on real estate companies.
In the first two months, Vanke ushered in a double kill of stocks and debts, and people were panicked for a moment, but in the end, it was the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the major shareholder that supported it to save its respect.
And Gemdale, not to mention.
Sales have been declining again and again, and debts have been pressed again, especially in the first half of next year, the debt repayment pressure is huge, and it depends on whether the second shareholder's Shenzhen Futian Investment Control will come to the rescue.
Unexpectedly, even Beijing began to relax
In terms of policy,What I didn't expect was that the first-tier cities finally had a substantial move-
Beijing went straight to the three-piece suite, lowering the down payment ratio, lowering the loan interest rate, and adjusting the standard of ordinary housing, followed by Shanghai.
In the past, because of the control of population size and the suppression of the property market too fast, the property market in key cities was loosened, and most of them made breakthroughs in social security and talent housing purchase policies, and tried the water to see the reflection of the market.
Nowadays,directly released the most powerful property market relaxation in the past six or seven years, full of sincerity.
I knew that this day would come eventually, but what I didn't know was that this day would come so violently and so quickly.
And Guangzhou, as early as before, almost all the big moves that can be made have been exhausted, adjusting the down payment ratio and five changes.
Second, Huangpu Panyu Huadu District has released purchase restrictions and other ......
You must know that this is the first time since February 2011, when Guangzhou implemented the purchase restriction policy for 12 years, that the housing purchase restrictions in the three districts have been re-relaxed.
In the end, the high-level set the tone not long ago, and I believe the big guys have seen it.
The saying of establishing first and then breaking is established, and there is no mention of "housing not speculation", which is also a good thing for real estate.
I believe that the follow-up stimulus and boost policies will not stop there.
And a new round of Xiaoyangchun is coming.
Are you planning to buy a house in 2024?