Yan Yan is the deputy director of the Institute of Economic Research, Renmin University of Chinese, vice chairman of the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF), and chairman of China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd
This article **Since December 15th, China Integrity Research***
Number of words: 1845 words.
Reading time: 5 minutes.
This year, China's economy has not achieved "retaliatory **" but has achieved "recovery growth", because the foundation for sustained economic recovery is not yet solid, the economic recovery process has shown certain twists and turns. On the whole, China's economy is currently in the stage of bottoming out and rebounding, and it shows six major characteristics. One isThe structural adjustment of growth drivers continues, and the growth contribution rate of the tertiary industry and final consumption has reached or even exceeded the pre-epidemic level, but the growth contribution rate of the secondary industry and capital formation still needs to be improved. The second isThe production of industry and service industry showed bright spots, among which the added value of equipment manufacturing and the production of service consumption maintained rapid growth, and new growth momentum was still accumulating. The third isThe price level is low, deflationary pressure still exists, and the ** level has improved in the third quarter, but the ** level has fallen marginally since October. Four areThe scissors gap between money supply and financing demand has narrowed, but we need to be vigilant against the problems of capital idling and slow capital activation. Fifth, yesThe pressure of insufficient demand is still prominent, the "troika" has a certain downward pressure, and the problem of imbalance between supply and demand still needs to be alleviated. Six isThe phenomenon of structural differentiation is still prominent, and the recovery in different fields is uneven. With the wave recovery of the economy, there is little pressure to achieve the 5% growth target in 2023, and the growth rate is still higher than that of major developed economies.
In 2024, China's economic recovery will continue to face risks and challenges in six areas. One isGlobal geopolitical conflicts have intensified, great power games and deglobalization waves coexist, and the tightening effect brought about by interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States is being released, and the external environment facing China is still severe and complex. The second isThe contradiction of insufficient demand is still prominent, real estate investment continues to decline, infrastructure investment is constrained by debt, household consumption is difficult to expand in the short term, and exports are facing weak external demand. The third isThe confidence of micro entities is insufficient, and the investment and consumption willingness of the enterprise sector and the residential sector still need to be consolidated and boosted. Four areThe slow turnover and high cost continue to restrict the improvement of corporate profits, and it still takes time for the improvement of micro entities. Fifth, yes2024 will be a critical year for real estate adjustment and transformation, and policy adjustments and the "three major projects" may bring marginal improvement to the real estate market. Six isMacro debt risks are at a high level, macro leverage ratio may exceed 300%, interest payment pressure may amplify economic and financial vulnerabilities, and debt constraints in central and western provinces may also restrict the growth space of infrastructure investment.
Although multiple risks and pressures still exist, the economic growth target in 2024 may still be about 5%, supported by a series of positive factors such as the reduction of drag factors, the resilience of the economic production side, the transformation of old and new kinetic energy, the release of the effect of the policy of stabilizing growth in the early stage, and the fact that there is still sufficient room for follow-up policies. The Politburo meeting in December and the first economic work conference proposed that the general tone of next year's economic work is "seeking progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking", and the tone for stable growth is more positive, the importance of "progress" and "establishment" will be enhanced, and the intensity of macroeconomic policy counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment may also be increased.
In the operation of various macroeconomic policies next year, the fiscal policy should be more active in order to effectively respond to and resolve the pressure in four aspects: FirstCyclical, structural and trend problems are superimposed, economic growth is facing downward pressure, and fiscal policy needs to be more activeThe second isThe risk of local debt is still prominent, and it is necessary for the fiscal policy to continue to exert force to leave a certain space for debt reductionThe third isThe imbalance between supply and demand still exists, the demand is weak, and the level of the first level continues to be low, and the active fiscal policy should continue to exert force;Four areThe pressure on local finances and the pressure to protect people's livelihood is not reduced, and it is also necessary to strengthen the efficiency of active fiscal policies. At the same time, the fiscal policy also has sufficient room for force, from the international comparison, China's first sector leverage ratio, especially the first leverage ratio is low, according to the first sector debt ratio of 60% and the real GDP growth rate of 5%, in 2024, China's first sector debt space is about 96 trillion. In the above context, it is suggested that China's narrow deficit rate can be arranged to 36%, the size of the deficit is more than 48 trillion, the deficit distribution should be further tilted, so that more macroeconomic control responsibilities return to the standard, of which the scale of the deficit is 4 trillion, and the scale of the local deficit is 09 trillion. It is recommended that the new quota of special bonds be maintained at 36-3.At a high level of about 7 trillion yuan, we will ensure the continuity of funds for existing projects, meet other innovative purposes, optimize the expenditure structure, further improve the efficiency of funds and increase investment leverage.
The situation in 2024 may be more complex and severe than this year, especially some potential problems in economic operation may be further exposed, but the favorable conditions for China's economic development will be stronger than the unfavorable conditions, and I believe that next year's economic growth target can be successfully achieved, and will further benefit micro subjects such as residents and enterprises.
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