China's rising economy
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, from the beginning of 1953 to the end of 1969, China's real GDP grew by 150 in 17 years6%, with an average annual average of less than 56%。This is also the result of the overvaluation of industrial products**, when there was a significant scissors difference between industrial products and agricultural products, which actually led to the overvaluation of the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, in the case of an underestimation of industrial products, or in the case of a free economic market, China's real real economic growth rate is 56% is lower.
From 1953 to 1969, China's nominal GDP grew by 1592%, 17 years, nominal GDP growth average annual is less than 59% (this is the nominal GDP converted in the case of an overvalued RMB exchange rate).
From 1953 to 1969, real GDP per capita in the United States grew by 9187%。Nominal GDP per capita (nominal GDP excluding inflation) grew by 17735%。The value of $1 at the end of 1969 was only 69 of the $1 at the beginning of 195318%, the dollar depreciated by nearly 30%, and the average annual depreciation during this period was more than 15%。China's annual nominal GDP growth rate in the US dollar was about 6% in the same period, and the growth rate of US dollar nominal GDP after deducting the depreciation of the US dollar was about 45%, if there are no obvious abnormal fluctuations in the exchange rate, this means that China's real GDP growth rate is less than 45%, this growth rate is similar to the economic growth rate of the United States in the same period, for developing countries such as China, the economic growth rate is indeed not fast. Since China's population grew by around 2% during the same period, China's real real GDP per capita grew at about 2 percent from 1953 to 1969Around 5%, this is indeed a relatively slow economic growth. This is the actual level of performance of China's planned economic system, and it is indeed unsatisfactory.
In the 11 years from 1970 to 1980, real GDP grew by 1182%, with an average annual growth rate of about 73%。During the same period, the nominal GDP of the US dollar grew by 286%, with an average annual growth rate of 13%. During this period, the RMB exchange rate tended to be significantly overvalued, which led to the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate for 14 consecutive years.
In contrast, real GDP in the United States grew by 36 percent over the same period86%, an average of nearly 29%, nominal GDP grew by 18067%, an average of nearly 10% per year, and an average annual depreciation of the US dollar of 71%。China's nominal GDP growth rate in the same period was 13%, and after deducting the depreciation of the dollar, China's real GDP growth rate in the same period was 5around 9% (without taking into account the overvaluation of the RMB exchange rate at this time). It means that China's economic growth rate in the same period is less than 59%, taking into account the growth rate of nearly 2% of the population, the per capita real GDP growth rate is less than 39%, which is indeed a relatively slow economic growth. This still shows the defects of the planned economic system, and it is difficult to maintain a state of high-speed economic development.
From the beginning of 1981 to the end of 1988, it was basically the first stage of China's reform and opening up, and through the establishment of an agricultural production model based on family labor, agriculture was greatly developed, and a large number of rural labor forces were liberated, forming a group of migrant workers. In the past eight years, real GDP has grown by 1247%, with an average annual growth rate of more than 106%, this growth rate is already significantly faster than the economic growth rate before the reform and opening up. This is the stage when China is gradually moving towards a market economy, which also shows that the gradual breaking of the planned economic system has increased China's economic growth rate.
China's nominal GDP grew by 32 percent over the same period48%, with an average annual average of less than 36%, per capita growth is even less (at this time, the Chinese per capita dollar nominal GDP ranking fell slightly), which is naturally a relatively slow pace, which is mainly due to the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the same period.
Real GDP per capita in the United States grew by 31 percent over the same period58%, with an average annual average of less than 35%, and GDP per capita in nominal dollars increased by 835%, with an average of more than 78%, with an average annual depreciation of 43%。Excluding the depreciation of the US dollar, China's real GDP growth rate is minus 07%, which means that China's real GDP growth should also be negative. In fact, we all know that China's economy in the 80s was a rapid growth period. It is only because of the artificially large depreciation of the RMB exchange rate that the nominal GDP growth rate of the US dollar is too slow. Under normal circumstances, China's nominal GDP growth rate in the US dollar in the 80s should be at 14More than 9%, but less than 36%, which is completely to pay for the false growth of China's economy in the 70s, if there is no overestimation of the level of the RMB exchange rate in the 70s, China's economic growth rate in the 70s is measured in terms of the US dollar, China's US dollar nominal GDP growth rate at that time should be around 3%, taking into account the US dollar 7 in the same periodThe depreciation rate of 1% is negative, and the nominal GDP growth rate of the dollar is negative 41%, China's economic growth rate in the 70s should also be negative.
For well-known reasons, China's economy grew slowly in 1989 and 1990, with real GDP growing by 4 in 19891%, an increase of 38%, the per capita growth rate is even slower. China has almost missed another two years of economic development. In 1991 achieved 92% higher growth rate. The sluggish economic growth of this period, as well as the changes in the situation in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, made an old man unable to sit still, and finally started the second round of more in-depth reform and opening up, which brought about the economic explosion of China to date.
In the 11 years from 1992 to 2002, China's real GDP grew by 1919%, an annual average of 10The 2% growth rate was the crystallization of the market-oriented reform of the economic system, and such an economic growth rate was unique among the major countries at that time. Over the same period, China's nominal GDP in the US dollar grew by 2553%, with an average annual growth rate of nearly 123%。
Over the same period, the U.S. per capita nominal GDP grew by 77845%, with an annual average of nearly 54%, per capita real GDP growth of 4442%, with an average annual average of less than 35%, the rate of depreciation of the dollar in the same period should be 19%。Excluding the depreciation of the US dollar, China's US dollar nominal GDP growth rate was 104%, which is slightly higher than China's own real GDP of 102% growth. During this period, the level of the RMB exchange rate is normal.
From 1992 to 2002, the real GDP growth rate tended to decline overall, indicating that the dividends of deepening reform will gradually shrink, and if we do not continue to deepen reform, then economic growth will continue to decline. The reform of the economic system in this period is marked by the gradual establishment of the market economic system and the gradual reduction of state-owned enterprises.
In the 11 years from 2003 to 2013, China's real GDP grew by 19064%, an annual average of nearly 102%, which is very close to the economic growth rate of the previous 11-year cycle. This is the crystallization of the deepening of reform and opening up during the period of Zhu Rongji's cabinet, for example, the strategy of grasping the big and letting go of the small ones, and the strategy of joining the world's leading organizations and integrating into the international community, which bore rich fruits during this period. During the same period, China's nominal GDP in the US dollar grew by 53178%, with an average of 165%, which quickly made China the world's second-largest economy and achieved impressive economic success.
Over the same period, the U.S. nominal GDP per capita grew by 5298%, with an average annual growth rate of less than 4%, and real GDP per capita increased by 2207%, with an average annual average of less than 185%, and the rate of depreciation of the dollar is 215%。In the same period, China's nominal GDP growth rate in the US dollar can average 165%, deducting the depreciation of the US dollar, China's US dollar nominal GDP growth rate is 14Around 35%, which is significantly faster than China's own real GDP growth. This shows that the rapid development of China's economy can promote the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, which is a normal phenomenon that accompanies the rapid economic development of various countries. This basically shows that China's economic development in this 11-year cycle is very similar to the situation in Japan during the economic boom in the 60s of the 20th century. As long as China continues to deepen reforms, it still has 20 years of rapid economic development. After that, China will also become a developed country.
This 11-year economic cycle is similar to the previous 11-year economic cycle, but the momentum is also shrinking. For example, in 2012 and 2013, the economy grew at a rate of 77%, which is a slower growth rate for China, which has been similar to the two consecutive years of low growth caused by the Asian financial crisis in 1998 since 1991. China's economic growth (above 9 percent) after two consecutive years of decline brought about by the 2008 U.S. financial crisis was also faster than that. Compared with the high-speed economic growth in the past, such a low-speed economic growth rate, our society does not feel any discomfort, for example, employment difficulties and other situations have not appeared. The reason is that the decline in economic growth this time is mainly due to the stagnation of labor growth, and with the negative growth of labor force in the future, the economic slowdown will be more obvious, which may lead to China's economic growth rate falling to a level of less than 7%. Of course, even in the state of stagnant growth of the labor force, as long as the reform is further deepened, new economic growth points can be released, and the economic slowdown trend can be curbed, and if the reform is large enough, China's economic development can also usher in a new period of rapid development.
The economic growth rate above mainly refers to the economic growth rate of the country as a whole, not the per capita GDP growth rate, which is an important difference from other chapters. In the 61 years from 1953 to 2013, Chinese's per capita real GDP increased by 5155 times, with an average annual growth rate of 667%。In these 61 years, the population has increased from 568.91 million to 135737 million, an increase of 1386%, with an average annual growth rate of about 143%。This means that in the past 61 years, China's GDP growth rate has been 81%。
We already know that the long-term nominal GDP growth rate of the US dollar after deducting the depreciation factor of the US dollar is greater than the real GDP growth rate, which means that the US dollar nominal GDP growth multiple converted by China after deducting the depreciation factor of the US dollar should be greater than 5155 times. Nominal GDP per capita in 2013 was $6,959, which means that real nominal GDP per capita in 1952 should be less than $135 (2013 dollar value) if the long-term exchange rate is normal. Undoubtedly, this figure is significantly smaller, considering that in 2013 Malawi, which had the lagging behind in nominal GDP per capita, was US$222.
China's fertility rate in 2014 was 155, which belongs to the low fertility level, and the Chinese population will begin to grow negatively in 2022.