Chao News client reporter Wu Enhui.
2023 is a year of "golden" glittering.
There is no doubt that the light of ** is too dazzling this year. From the beginning of the year to the end of the year, ** continued to hit new highs, and the topic of gold prices reached a high level of hot searches. If you were lucky enough to buy gold bars at the beginning of the year, then congratulations, the gain reached a staggering 20%.
soaring all the way, constantly promoting the consumption enthusiasm of Chinese people. 2023 is about to pass, what has the ** market experienced this year?2024 is coming, will it continue to soar?
* Business is good, but the need for capital is large.
The owner of the gold shop after the 80s sold two houses to hoard.
On the hot search list in 2023, topics related to ** consumption always occupy a high position. On March 29 this year, a report in Chao News "Before this round of soaring, Hangzhou had demolition households hoarding more than 3 million yuan of gold bars" caused heated discussions, at that time, Hu Guoxiao, who was engaged in jewelry wholesale business, told reporters: This year's ** started with hot sales, and sales increased by more than 30% in the first three months.
At the end of the year, the Chao News reporter found Hu Guoxiao again and wanted to ask how the business was this year, but he didn't expect the answer on the other end of the year to be: "I don't have time to talk to you at all." ”
So recently, a Chao News reporter came to Hangzhou International Jewelry City to find Hu Guoxiao to see how busy he was.
Although the outdoor temperature dropped to below zero, the jewelry city was in full swing, and from a distance, Boss Hu was greeting customers in the store.
After chatting with reporters for a while, several old customers in Shaoxing, Ningbo, Yuhang and other places purchased a batch of new goods such as bracelets, zodiac dragons, and ancient gold bracelets in Hu Guoxiao's store, totaling nearly 2 kilograms.
Hu Guoxiao, 35 years old this year, has been engaged in jewelry wholesale for many years, and is a senior industry insider who has experienced the wind and rain, "In 2013, after ten years, this year I grabbed **, at the beginning of the year, the epidemic was released, everyone suddenly retaliated to buy **, the goods of the processing factory were robbed, and the factory could not ship the goods for 24 hours. ”
In March and April this year, Hu Guoxiao hung out his two residences. "One set is more than 150 square meters, a set is more than 130 square meters, this set in the north of Xiaoshan City is sold at a high point, and the other set is a little remote, the price is not too high, and the two sets are sold for a total of more than 6 million yuan. Hu Guoxiao told reporters, "As soon as the money arrives, I will immediately go to hoard **."
The funds are all bets**, mainly based on so many years of experience and judgment of fundamentals. Hu Guo said with a smile, looking back now, when the more than 6 million yuan was hoarded, the gold price was still relatively low, and now at least 30 yuan to 40 yuan per gram has been earned.
From the beginning of the year to the present, the price of jewelry gold has risen by more than 100 yuan, such a ** still can not stop consumers to buy gold, Hu Boss revealed, the store's wholesale growth rate has remained above 30% all year round, "I have a good wholesale end, reflecting the downstream retail end of the ** business is good, everyone is enthusiastic about buying gold." ”
Three phases**.
ups and downs, and finally a new high.
This year, my circle of friends has posted a lot of gold price ** charts, and in 2023, the international ** will refresh the historical record many times. Hu Guo said with a smile that every time he hit a new high, he was very excited, even if it was **, he was also very excited, "It's just right to fall **."
The Chao News reporter also sorted out and reviewed the first trend since the beginning of this year, which can be roughly divided into three stages:
The first phase is an upside from January to early May**. At the beginning of the year, the market's expectations of a recession in the United States rose, coupled with the sudden crisis of Silicon Valley Bank and other small and medium-sized banks in March, which blocked the Fed's balance sheet reduction process, and the expectation of interest rate hikes slowed down, ** upward, gold prices broke through $2,000 per ounce on April 3, and then, affected by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, ** continued to soar, and on May 4, the spot ** broke through a record high of 2074$77 an ounce, briefly rose above 2085 during the session$4 oz.
The second stage is from May to September, with the easing of the crisis of small and medium-sized banks, superimposed on the resilience of U.S. economic data, the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates, nominal interest rates and real interest rates both rose, and the increase also narrowed, especially on September 20, local time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain interest rates at 525% to 55%, five days later, **started**, falling below $1,900. However, at this stage, the domestic *** benefited from the depreciation of the RMB, and there was still a small **.
The third stage is the upward movement since October**. With ** fell to 1820 on October 5On the one hand, the short-term safe-haven demand from the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict soared, on the other hand, with the further decline in U.S. inflation data, the Federal Reserve's statement was relaxed, and the market's interest rate cut expectations gradually increased.
Echoing the surge in gold prices, central banks have been hoarding aggressively in 2023. Global central bank gold demand rose 14% y-o-y to a record 800t in the first three quarters of 2023, according to the World ** AssociationThe central bank made 337t of net purchases in Q3, the third highest quarterly net purchase on record.
Gold hit a new high on December 4.
In 2024, the gold price will hit a new high
Industry insiders: gold prices will continue to rise moderately next year.
After this soaring 2023, **what will happen in 2024**?
Hu Guoxiao told the Chao News reporter: "* has risen so much, and more and more consumers have known the function of maintaining and increasing value." Anyway, I will continue to be firmly optimistic about next year. When he said this, several more customers came into the store to buy**.
In 2024, I am more optimistic, and the gold price is expected to hit a new high. Zheng Hong, a macro and senior analyst at the Zheshang Research Center, said in an interview with Chao News that there are two main drivers for the trend in 2024.
Zheng Hong believes that first of all, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will drive investment demand. The current market expectations and dot plots all show that the Fed will start cutting interest rates next year, which will drive nominal and real interest rates downward, and the attractiveness of investment will rise.
The second is the safe-haven demand to stimulate the upward movement of gold prices. 2024 is the year of the world's best, and the situation in the Middle East and the geopolitical events that are not yet yet the first to be achieved will increase the demand for safe havens. Central banks, especially those in emerging economies, have increased their holdings of reserves, which will also stimulate higher demand.
A senior analyst at the international department of a large state-owned bank in Zhejiang told reporters: The most critical point affecting the trend in 2024 is the strength of the dollar index. At the same time, geopolitical events such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the increase in holdings of global central banks will support the trend of **, in this context, ** should still go strong, continue to be high**, and the probability will hit a new high, but on the whole, it is more likely to go up moderately.
For family asset allocation, the analyst further pointed out that it is a good thing for families to allocate some **, which is suitable for long-term holding, but there may be better investment opportunities in the financial market next year, not necessarily ***
*Please indicate the source".