A moderate-intensity El Niño event has formed
Recently, the Office of the National Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Relief Committee and the Ministry of Emergency Management, together with a number of departments and units, held a meeting in Beijing to discuss and judge the national natural disaster risk situation in the winter from December 2023 to February 2024. The meeting focused on the current moderate intensity El Niño event, which is expected to continue until next spring, and may lead to higher global temperatures, more frequent and stronger extreme weather, and an increased risk of disaster compounding.
According to the National Weather Service, July 3, 2023, was the hottest day on record on Earth, with the global average temperature reaching 62 meters above the Earth's surface62 degrees Fahrenheit or 1701 degrees Celsius, a new record. And all this is inseparable from the El Niño phenomenon. El Niño is a phenomenon that occurs in the oceans and is marked by anomalous warming of the waters of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Oceans. This phenomenon is the result of an unstable state of interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere, which can lead to global climate anomalies.
The meeting believes that this winter, China's early winter is warm, the second winter is close to the normal year, the southern precipitation is too high, the northern region may have low temperature snow disasters, and the southern region may have periodic low temperature rain and snow freezing disasters. In addition, the forest fire danger level in southwest China and other places is high, and some areas in southwest and northwest China may have periodic meteorological droughts. There may be more catastrophic wave processes in coastal waters, and geological disasters in the south and northwest may occur scattered.
Josef Ludescher, a senior scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in an interview, "This may be just the beginning, '2024 could be the hottest year on record globally.'" He warned that El Niño typically brings prolonged drought to the western Pacific coast, continuous rainfall to South America and the equatorial coast, and severe storms and hurricanes to the Central Pacific. Dramatic changes in weather patterns will have a significant impact on agriculture, fisheries and global commodities**, as well as on national economies.
It is understood that although the El Niño phenomenon occurs in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which is relatively far away from China, and does not have a strong direct impact on China's weather and climate, it will still affect China through changes in atmospheric circulation. Historical experience also proves this: in the winter after El Niño, the northern part of China is prone to warm winters, and the southern part of China is prone to heavy rains and floods.
To this end, the Office of the National Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Relief Committee and the Ministry of Emergency Management will work with relevant departments and units to closely track and monitor the dynamic change trend of disastrous weather and climate and activities, discuss and judge on a rolling basis, release monitoring and early warning information in a timely manner, and efficiently carry out emergency linkage disposal.
In the face of possible natural disaster risks, the Ministry of Emergency Management reminds the public to pay attention to weather warning information in a timely manner and take preventive measures. For industries such as agriculture and fishery that may be affected, it is necessary to prepare in advance to reduce potential economic losses.
The effects of global climate change are being felt, and humanity needs to work more closely together to address this challenge. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a platform for the public and relevant departments to understand and prepare for the risks of impending natural disasters in order to mitigate the possible losses.