1. The United States and Japan are concerned about the dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Japan expressed concern to the Philippines and Japan, respectively, over the scrape incident, in which Philippine vessels clashed with Chinese coast guard vessels. The two countries have used this as an opportunity to try to increase pressure on China and support the Philippine side.
2. The follow-up impact of the United States and Japan's support for the Philippines
With the support of the United States and Japan, Philippine Ambassador Romualdez issued a series of cautionary remarks, saying that the South China Sea was the next flashpoint for conflict, not the Taiwan Strait. He called on the United States, Japan and other countries to increase pressure on China, and advocated joint patrols and military Xi in the South China Sea to attract other countries to join the ranks of confronting China. Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro has also begun to move in an attempt to find more supporters in the South China Sea. He met with French Defense Minister Le Cornu to discuss military cooperation between the two countries, including the exchange of troops stationed in their respective territories. The Philippines is clearly pinning its hopes on the support of foreign powers to counter China in the South China Sea.
1. The risk of escalation of disputes in the South China Sea
As the dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea escalates, there is a rising risk that the dispute could lead to a military conflict. However, Philippine Ambassador Murdez's remarks asserting that the South China Sea dispute could trigger a world war are clearly unrealistic. In fact, in order to escalate the dispute into a world war, the United States, Japan and other countries need to directly send troops to help the Philippines and have a frontal military confrontation with China. However, considering the actual situation, the United States, Japan and other countries are not willing and dare not have a head-on conflict with China, which can be seen from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The United States has only supported Ukraine in the form of military aid in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, even though the conflict has been going on for two years. The main reason why the United States does not intervene directly is because it fears that if it does, the conflict will escalate into a war between the United States and Russia, and such a war will have disastrous consequences for the world. Therefore, the United States does not want to lose control of confrontation with China and has repeatedly stated that it wants to control the differences between China and the United States.
2. The difference between the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait
Although the Philippine ambassador pointed out that the South China Sea is the flashpoint for a military conflict, this does not mean that there are no security risks in the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwan Strait issue is China's internal affair, which involves national stability and regional stability, and there is no room for other countries to interfere. Unlike the South China Sea, the resolution of the Taiwan Strait issue requires China's internal efforts and the respect and cooperation of external countries. Therefore, while the South China Sea dispute may escalate into a military conflict, the Taiwan Strait issue has nothing to do with it, and the two cannot be confused.
1. The motivation of the Philippines to create a "bitter love drama".
For years, the Philippines has tried to portray itself as a "weak person bullied by China" in its confrontation with China in order to gain the sympathy and support of the international community. However, this method of creating a persona is not tenable in the face of facts. From a historical and practical point of view, there is no doubt that China has sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and reefs, such as Scarborough Shoal and Ren'ai Jiao. China has always adhered to the principle of "no conflict if it can, no conflict and try to negotiate as much as possible" in the South China Sea disputes, and has always taken a positive attitude towards the Philippines and sought to resolve the dispute through consultation. China has never relied on its strong strength to suppress the Philippines, and even when the Philippines illegally entered the waters near Ren'ai Jiao, China took humanitarianism as the starting point and provided humanitarian assistance to the people on the Philippines to ensure their normal lives, reflecting China's goodwill and friendship. It is no exaggeration to say that China has been very tolerant of the Philippines, and the Philippines should also understand China's sincerity and goodwill.
2. The Philippines' misjudgment
It is naïve for the Philippines to mistakenly believe that it can confront China with the support of the United States, Japan, and other countries. In fact, despite the rhetorical support of the United States and Japan for the Philippines and even some economic and military assistance, in reality, the United States is reluctant to engage in a head-on conflict with China, knowing that such a conflict would have disastrous consequences. The United States has been trying to control tensions between China and the United States and avoid it getting out of control. Therefore, Philippine Ambassador Murdez's words are only empty words of verbal support, which deviate greatly from actual actions. Rather than continue these meaningless verbal battles, China should work in the same direction to find a viable solution to the South China Sea dispute.