Today (December 27) in early trading, the semiconductor sector has risen in the direction of high-bandwidth memory, memory chips, chiplet concepts, etc., and as of press time, the semiconductor sector has risen 212%。
On the news side, on December 25, according to a number of ** reports, the American memory chip company Micron Technology (Micron) has reached a global settlement agreement with Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit, and the two companies will withdraw their respective lawsuits against each other worldwide and end all litigation between the two parties. The settlement means that the intellectual property cases that originated in 2016 and involved Micron Technology, UMC and Fujian Jinhua are all closed. Some institutions said that Micron's statement may be a big positive for Fujian Jinhua, and it may also be a good opportunity for the development of memory chips.
At present, according to various data, the market generally expects that consumer electronics on the downstream demand side will usher in a recovery next year. With the first-class semiconductor chip industry, it may usher in another opportunity moment for low-level replenishment layout. IDC expects global smartphone shipments to increase by 3% year-over-year in 20248%。Micron Technology (Micron) recently disclosed its 24Q1 performance, disclosing that most of the memory chip inventory in PC, mobile device, automotive, industrial and other fields has been close to or reached normal levels, and the memory chip inventory situation in the data center field is improving, and it is expected to return to normal in the first half of 24. The company expects PC sales to grow in the low to mid-single-digit range in '24, smartphone sales to grow slightly, and its 24Q1 DRAM and NAND sales revenue both recorded sequential increases (QoQ 24% and 2%). According to the latest data from WSTS, global semiconductor sales will increase by 13 in 20241% to $588.4 billion. (The mention of specific companies is only for illustrating industry views and does not constitute investment advice).
As of December 25, the CNI Semiconductor Chip Index has increased from a high of nearly 30% this year** and from a high of nearly 50% in the past three years**.
The data **choice, the high point of this year appeared in 20234.7. The highs of the last three years appeared in 20217.30What stage of the cycle have we reached?
Zhao Zongting, manager of ChinaAMC CNI Semiconductor Chip ETF Connection**, said that the chip industry has been in a downward cycle for nearly 2 years, and it is now beginning to show certain signs of recovery inflection point. As far as the secondary market is concerned, the electronics sector (including downstream consumer electronics and upstream semiconductors) has shown some signs of recovery. On the one hand, affected by the breakthrough in the independent and controllable process of Huawei's high-end models, the chip industry chain, as the upstream of consumer electronics, has benefited from the recovery of downstream demand, or is at a cyclical inflection pointOn the other hand, semiconductor sales data in recent months have also been on the upside month.
Judging from the year-on-year data, the negative growth rate of global semiconductor sales has slowed down. From January to May this year, the year-on-year growth rate of global semiconductor sales was basically around -20%, but the negative growth rate has slowed down to about -7% since June, and the year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor sales has also formed an inflection point. (Data**: American Semiconductor Industry Association).
What do you think about the investment opportunities in the semiconductor chip industry next year?
Zhang Jingsong, the leading hybrid manager of China's digital economy, believes that looking forward to next year, semiconductors are still the key track worth paying attention to, and the semiconductor advanced packaging equipment and materials that are most optimistic about the resonance of localization and CAPEX (capital expenditure) cycle, and there are opportunities worth digging into each process segment. In addition to the logic of high product barriers, you can return to the inventory cycle framework of "inventory-**demand", and the replenishment and price increase of some segments in the fourth quarter are expected to drive short-term performance strengthening, and next year will show a trend of profitability repair, but next year may only be able to cash in on the expected profits of the first business for specific customers or specific innovative products.
In terms of consumer electronics, the demand trend is relatively clear, but the magnitude is still uncertain, and the new MR (mixed reality) products represented by Vision Pro are expected to inject a new product innovation cycle into the inventory cycle. Among them, the head panel factory is expected to successively land new AMOLED production lines to meet the demand brought about by the increase in the penetration rate of OLED in mobile phones, tablets, laptops and other products, and silicon-based OLED is also expected to usher in an outbreak due to MR in 25 yearsAmong the 3C devices, business for specific customers is expected to drive business growth, and new products are expected to be verified to drive valuation growth. (This article is integrated from **Times, Huaxia**, Cathay Pacific**).