As of yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.68%, lost 2900 points again, and closed at 289888 points. It has only been five days since the last time it fell below 2,900 points. One can't help but be reminded of the lyrics: "Electrocuted like an incredible miracle......"On the disk, there are more than 4,400 *** The turnover of the two cities is still sluggish, only 609.9 billion yuan.
But after the market, there is a good thing!It is reported that according to the requirements of the "Notice on Optimizing the Relevant Arrangements for Securities Lending Transactions and Refinancing** Lending Transactions" issued by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in October, securities firms have imposed relevant restrictions on customers in accordance with the new regulations. The new regulations clearly state that "if an investor holds restricted shares of a listed company, a strategic placement share, or a major shareholder or a specific shareholder** shares transferred by way of a block transaction, the investor and its affiliates shall not lend securities to sell the listed company** during the restriction period" and will be implemented on October 16. (*Finance Associated Press, release time: 2023 12 26, no investment recommendation) This move is expected to limit some short-selling forces to a certain extent, which is good news for the market.
Judging from the rise and fall of the popular index yesterday, the photovoltaic industry **032%, CSI liquor**066%, CS new energy car **071%, CSI Medical**140%, semiconductors**242%。(Data**: Oriental Wealth Choice data, statistics as of 2023 12 26, no investment recommendation) Although the market turnover is sluggish, the central bank is still increasing the release of liquidity, releasing a positive signal to care for the New Year's Eve capital.
The People's Bank of China announced on December 26 that in order to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity at the end of the year, the People's Bank of China launched a 7-day and 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 468 billion yuan in the form of interest rate bidding on the same day, and the winning interest rate was 18% and 195%。As 119 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on the same day, the open market achieved a net investment of 349 billion yuan, the largest in two months.
The day before, the central bank carried out a 7-day and 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 471 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 287 billion yuan.
Since last week, the central bank has carried out 14-day reverse repurchase for seven consecutive trading days, and as of December 26, a total of 1,085 billion yuan has been invested.
Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said that in December, factors such as bond issuance, year-end foreign exchange purchase demand, regulatory assessment, changes in fiscal revenue and expenditure, and holiday capital demand may have a certain impact on liquidity. At the end of the month, the pressure on liquidity demand may rise, and the approaching New Year's Day holiday will also lead to an increase in the demand for cross-holiday liquidity by financial institutions. CSI 300 has multiple extremes The current market, although it is full of torment in the face of volatility and despair of not rising, but on the contrary, whether it is the index point, valuation or market sentiment, it has come to the bottom of history, in the long run, we might as well be more optimistic.
Judging from the research report data of China Merchants **, at present, the multiple extremes of the CSI 300 index are seriously undervalued compared to other major types of assets, and the glimmer of the dawn has appeared. Extreme 1: The price-to-book ratio of the CSI 300 Index returns to 117 times, the lowest value in 2014 and also around the lowest level in history.
China Merchants Research Institute "CSI 300 Multiple Extremum, Is This Time "the Same" or "Different"?—A-share Investment Strategy Weekly Report (1224), release time: 2023 12 24, no investment recommendation).
Extreme 2: The valuation ratio of the CSI 300 index to the S&P 500: the price-to-earnings ratio fell to 427%, which is close to an all-time low.
This ratio is between 42% and 66% most of the time, and the CSI 300 is currently significantly undervalued relative to the S&P 500.
China Merchants Research Institute "CSI 300 Multiple Extremum, Is This Time "the Same" or "Different"?—A-share Investment Strategy Weekly Report (1224), release time: 2023 12 24, no investment recommendation).
Extreme 3: The dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index climbed to 333%, close to all-time highs, while the CSI 300 index dividend yield spread to the 10-year Treasury yield hit a record high.
In the context of the current interest rate pivot continuing to move downward, the CSI 300 index is 3With a dividend yield of 3%, it already has medium-term allocation value.
China Merchants Research Institute "CSI 300 Multiple Extremum, Is This Time "the Same" or "Different"?—A-share Investment Strategy Weekly Report (1224), release time: 2023 12 24, no investment recommendation) Extreme value 4: The CSI 300 Index and the U.S. dollar index have fluctuated in the same direction for a long time.
From the long river of history, the CSI 300 index most of the time and the dollar index run in the opposite direction, the logic is that when the dollar index weakens and the dollar flows out of the United States, China is an important part of emerging market countries, therefore, A shares can more or less obtain the best international capital, so as to achieve the best. Conversely, when the U.S. dollar index strengthens, unless domestic liquidity is extremely strong (2014-2015), the marginal outflow of international capital will have a marginal adverse impact on the liquidity of A-shares, and the CSI 300 index will be under pressure.
The US dollar index has systematically weakened, and the CSI 300 index has not risen, which is relatively rare. At the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016, due to the deleveraging impact of the domestic market, the inflow of external liquidity failed to support the market. The U.S. dollar index has continued to weaken since October 2023, and due to various reasons, there has been no significant inflow of foreign capital into A-shares.
However, in 2016, as the economy is expected to improve, foreign capital has started a relatively large inflow, and 2016 is also known as the beginning of the acceleration of foreign capital inflows.
China Merchants Research Institute "CSI 300 Multiple Extremum, Is This Time "the Same" or "Different"?—A-share Investment Strategy Weekly Report (1224), release time: 2023 12 24, no investment recommendation).
The reason for these anomalies is the weakening of the short-term economy, which has led to concerns about the long-term economy, and recently, many physical economic indicators have turned positive, indicating that the economy is improving. From a rational and medium- to long-term perspective, the CSI 300 is ushering in the glimmer of the dawn of the bottom.
At the beginning of the year, no one would have thought that after 4 months of rising, there would be such a **.
Data**: Oriental Wealth Choice data, statistical interval: 2023 1 1 2023 12 26, no investment recommendation) Since the wish made at the beginning of the year to return to the cost of this year may continue to next year, you might as well be one step ahead of others to win at the starting line!
It's the end of the year and the beginning of the year, will the New Year's Eve be a good opportunity?
According to the review of Guohai**, in the 14 years since 2010, according to the largest return in the band, spring restlessness can be divided into four types: absence, advance, average income and obvious return, absence and advance have appeared 2 times, 4 times with obvious returns, and 6 times with average returns. 
Guohai ** Research Institute, "How to Lay Out Spring Restlessness", release time: 2023 12 24, no investment recommendation).
The core reason for the restless absence in the spring of 2021-2022 is that the market is at a high level, overseas liquidity has tightened, and the maximum increase in all A does not exceed 10%, which lasts for no more than 20 trading days, and the dominant sectors during this period are dominated by low valuation pro-cyclical.
The spring restlessness in 2013 and 2015 was advanced to December of the previous year, and the core reason was that the steady growth policy was carried out in advance.
The spring restlessness in the past four years is the most significant, the core reason is that the market position is low + over-falling, Q1 liquidity is sufficient, the steady growth policy is obvious, and the small-cap style, growth and cycle-related industries are dominant - 2018 and 2023 The spring restless income in the past six years is average, the core reason is that the market position is not high or low, the liquidity and stable growth policy are not well coordinated, and the small-cap style, TMT and optional consumption are dominant. Guohai ** Research Institute, "How to Lay Out Spring Restlessness", release time: 2023 12 24, no investment recommendation).
If you take the most recent spring** at the beginning of this year, you can also see that some patterns have appeared.
The research and retaliation of Zhejiang businessmen pointed out that taking history as a mirror, looking back on the spring restlessness from January to April 2023, October to December 2022 is the bottoming period, and it is also the layout period. There are clear rules for the structural operation of the bottoming period, including the warm-up of theme stocks, the replenishment of white horse stocks, the stabilization of low valuations, and the emergence of star stocks. At present, Zheshang believes that the market will enter the bottoming period from October 24, 2023, and the operation of the market structure will once again show the characteristics of the bottom. Specifically, in the early stage, the theme stocks represented by the Beijing Stock Exchange warmed up, and the recent adjustment of white horse stocks represented by **heavy stocks, at the same time, the low valuation represented by high dividends** went up, and the star stocks represented by AI leaders launched in an orderly manner**. Zheshang also pointed out that the main line of this round of spring ** is mainly led by artificial intelligence, and attaches importance to the leading configuration of computing power, data, applications, end-side hardware and other links. In addition, the low-valuation sectors represented by high dividends can be used as a base allocation, and at the same time, pay attention to some industry opportunities where the inventory cycle is relatively smooth. Economist John Maynard Keynes said, "Markets will continue to be irrational for longer than you can hold on." "When we can't survive, we might as well persevere, don't come at the peak, don't turn around at the trough, exchange time for space, after surviving the cold winter, spring will definitely come."