The real estate market continues to fall into a bear market this year, continuing the trend of last year. Statistics show that the sales area of the property market this year has decreased by about 40% compared with the peak period, and is expected to fall below 1 billion square meters. At the same time,Second-hand housing**Most of the cities are in a significant **, and newRoom ratesGrid is showing a trend of differentiation, the first-tier cities are relatively strong, Chengdu is even bucking the trend, and most of the other cities are newRoom ratesGrid is also declining.
The real estate market adjustment has been carried out for nearly 3 years, and compared with the previous **, this adjustment is fundamentally different. This is a natural consequence of the limits of household and developer debt, and a normal reaction after population growth begins to slow. In the past, it usually only took about one and a half years, but this correction has entered a bear market and will take longer to recover.
According to industry insiders, this round of real estate market is expected to take another 3-5 years or even 7 years. Wang Shi, former chairman of Vanke, believes that this round of adjustment may take 3-5 years. Rogers, on the other hand, drew on the experience of Japan and the United States and believed that the adjustment could take up to seven years.
It is worth noting that even the real estate correction in the United States after the financial crisis took about 3 years to reach the bottom. At that time, the United States took a series of strong measures, including willInterest ratesto zero, and quantitative easing began;In addition, the U.S. Treasury Department directly took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were facing bankruptcy. In contrast, our current oneInterest ratesIt's still relatively high, and it's clear that it's still going through the landing process, so the process of adjustment will take some time. Everyone should be prepared and prepared for the harsh winter.
There are deep reasons behind the correction of the real estate market. On the one hand, highRoom ratesResidents are overly indebtedBuying a houseThe pressure has increased dramatically. On the other hand, the pressure on developers to accumulate debt is also increasing. In this case, the market gradually shows the contradiction between supply and demandRoom ratesThere is a downward trend.
In addition, the gradual slowdown in population growth is also an important factor in the adjustment. China's population has been growing over the past few decades, fueling a boom in the real estate market. However, in recent years, population growth has begun to slow down, and even appearedNegative growthhas led to a decrease in demand in the real estate market.
At the same time, the regulation of the real estate market has also had an important impact on the market. The vigorously implemented policy of restricting purchases and restricting loans has brought about changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the market, which has been further weakenedBuying a houseDemand.
The real estate market correction will beEconomyMake an impact. On the one hand, the real estate industry is widely interrelated, rightConstruction industry, decoration industry, home furnishing industry and other related industries will have an impact. Real estate, on the other hand, is ChinaEconomyOne of the important pillars of the market, the decline of the market will driveEconomyThe overall growth rate has declined.
In order to cope with the correction of the real estate market, it is necessary to take corresponding countermeasures. On the one hand, it is necessary to intensify the management of the real estate market and crack down on speculationFlipping housesbehavior, and strengthen the supervision of developers' debts to avoid further expansion of risks. On the other hand, ** can be loweredInterest rates, tax cuts and other measures to stimulate the demand of the real estate market and promote the steady recovery of the market.
At the same time, individual residents should also be rational about the adjustment of the real estate market. InBuying a houseaspects, should be based on their ownEconomyconditions and needs to be formulatedBuying a housePlan and avoid over-indebtedness. In addition, it is also possible to followSecond-hand housingmarket, take advantage of the opportunity during the market downturn, selectively buy what suits youProperty
To sum up, the time for real estate adjustment is expected to take about 3-7 years. The decline of the market is the result of the comprehensive effect of many factors, which needs to be combined with the most advanced regulatory policies and personal rationalityBuying a houseto respond to changes in the market. The most important thing is that we should look at market fluctuations rationally, plan for the long term, and be fully prepared for the future.