Coming to 2024, looking back on 2023, China's economy will recover rapidly after the relaxation of epidemic control, with a GDP growth rate of 52%, showing that China's economy has strong growth potential and stamina. However, the revenge consumption and buying a house in ** did not appear as scheduled, but the phenomenon of revenge saving money by ordinary people appeared. As a result, it may take longer to fully recover. In view of the current economic and social situation, there will be six major phenomena in the first half of 2024, namely, the strengthening of residents' awareness of saving money, the further reduction of mortgage interest rates, the continuation of prices, the further adjustment of housing prices, the decline in marriage rates and the increase in divorce rates, and the development opportunities of the pension industry. Let's know ahead of time and prepare.
In the first three quarters of 2023, resident deposits increased by 1442 trillion yuan, indicating that people's awareness of savings is getting higher and higher. Especially after the pandemic, more and more young people are joining the ranks of savings. They are more focused on responding to emergencies such as unemployment and the impact of illness. At the same time, due to the current unstable investment environment and high risk, people are more willing to choose to keep their money in bank fixed deposits. This trend is expected to continue.
For residents, saving money is not just to solve emergencies, but also to help them achieve more financial goals. By saving, people can accumulate more capital and prepare for future investment and consumption. In addition, people can also earn a certain amount of interest income through fixed deposits, which can further increase their wealth. Therefore, deposits are not just a low-risk way to reserve funds, but also an important tool to achieve financial goals.
The real estate market is under pressure from declining sales in 2023, and mortgage interest rates have been lowered in various places to encourage home purchases. At present, the domestic mortgage interest rate has fallen below 4%, and even fell to 3 in some places6%。As the real estate market continues to slump, it is expected that some banks will further reduce mortgage interest rates in 2024 to provide better financing conditions for buyers who just need to buy a home.
For home buyers, low interest rates mean lower repayment pressure and cheaper home costs. This is undoubtedly good news for those who are actively buying a home. In addition, lower mortgage rates will also boost the recovery of the housing market and inject new vitality into the economy as a whole. Therefore, 2024 will be a favorable time for home buyers.
China's prices will have different degrees of ** every year, especially the commodities closely related to people's lives will have a significant increase. This is mainly due to loose monetary policy and the inflow of excessive money into the commodity market. As a result, domestic prices are expected to continue in 2024**.
In the face of the trend of prices**, people need to prepare in advance. The burden of prices** can be mitigated through proper hoarding and early purchases. In addition, people should also pay attention to the adjustment of the structure of personal consumption, rationalize expenditures, and use funds in more valuable areas.
In 2023, domestic housing prices will show a trend of "both volume and price decline", and many cities have adjusted housing prices to stimulate market demand. By 2024, the real estate market will continue to maintain the trend of market adjustment, providing more opportunities for buyers who just need to buy a home.
On the one hand, many places have lifted the "price limit order", allowing developers to make their own decisions based on the actual situation**. This will drive some developers to adjust housing prices. On the other hand, the second-hand housing market is also facing increasing listing pressure, and landlords are more inclined to take the initiative to reduce prices**. Therefore, it is expected that house prices will continue to decline in 2024, providing more discounts for buyers who just need to buy a home.
The marriage rate will hit a record low in 2023, and many post-90s young people are reluctant to get married. The main reason is that the cost of marriage is too high, and the need to buy a house, a vehicle, and bear the cost of various weddings and gifts is huge. At the same time, the divorce rate continues to rise, and flash marriages are increasing.
In 2024, the trend of declining marriage rates and rising divorce rates will continue. Young people pay more attention to personal freedom and independence, choose their mates more carefully, and are reluctant to make hasty decisions about marriage. At the same time, young people are more likely to dissolve a discordant marriage because they have higher expectations for marriage. Therefore, the declining marriage rate and the rising divorce rate will continue to be a trend in the coming period.
China has entered a moderately aging society, and by the end of 2022, the elderly population over 60 years old was as high as 2800 million people, and it is expected to exceed 300 million by 2025. This will bring great pressure to the pension distribution, but also bring new development opportunities for the pension industry.
It is expected that in 2024, there will be more and more nursing homes opened by ** and private capital to provide better pension services and living environment for the elderly. At the same time, there is a shortage of caregivers in the elderly care industry, and more professionals are needed to devote themselves to it. Therefore, starting from 2024, the pension industry will usher in new development opportunities, and more personnel and resources will be needed to join.
In the first half of 2024, there will be six major phenomena: residents' awareness of saving money, further reduction of mortgage interest rates, continued price increases, further adjustment of housing prices, declining marriage rates and rising divorce rates, and the pension industry ushering in development opportunities. It is essential for the public to be aware and prepared. For example, it is necessary to raise the awareness of savings and plan personal finances reasonablyKeep an eye on mortgage interest rate changes and seize the opportunity to buy a homePay attention to the price situation and buy the goods you need in a planned way;For home buyers, looking for the opportunity to house prices;Recognise the financial pressures that marriage and marriage can bring, and make rational decisions;Pay attention to the development opportunities of the pension industry and seize relevant employment and investment opportunities. In 2024, we need to plan and prepare to respond and adapt to these changes.
The above is just one of the most important things in the industry, and the actual situation still needs to be observed and evaluated according to the dynamics of economic and social development.