Driven by multiple indications, the imagination of GLP-1 drugs continues to expand.
JPMorgan Chase analysts** estimate that annual sales of GLP-1-related drugs will exceed $100 billion by 2030. The potential market of 100 billion yuan will inevitably attract many pharmaceutical companies to enter the game, including AstraZeneca, Roche and other pharmaceutical companies have rushed to land on this track.
However, with the increase of entrants, the competition threshold for GLP-1 drugs is also rising, and pharmaceutical companies must prove their advantages, and head-to-head experiments are inevitable.
At present, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have started their own head-to-head experiments, hoping to speak with strength.
In such a situation, domestic players are not immune.
On December 1, according to the official website of the drug clinical trial registration and information publicity platform, Innovent Biologics' GLP-1R GCGR agonist Mastotide started a phase III clinical trial, in which the control drug is semaglutide, a "miracle drug" for weight loss.
The performance race around the GLP-1 track has spread to the country.
01 The test of strength under the involution
On the GLP-1 track, there is as much imagination as there is a challenge.
At present, although the number of entrants has increased, involution cannot be avoided, and the market has become more and more critical. The experience of Structure Therapeutics is a prime example of this.
On September 29, the Phase I clinical data of GSBR-1290, a GLP-1R agonist, announced that subjects receiving 90mg of the drug** lost an average body weight of up to 4 percent from baseline after 28 days9 kg。
This data made the market look forward to GSBR-1290, and the stock price of Structure Therapeutics was **3456%。
However, the latest release of Phase 2a clinical data has changed the market's view.
This clinical treatment for type 2 diabetes showed a decrease in HbA1C (glycosylated hemoglobin index) in the 45 mg and 90 mg dose groups at **12 weeks. 02%；
In terms of weight loss, the 120 mg dose group and the placebo group lost weight at 8 weeks, respectively. 82%。
While the data are good, GSBR-1290 appears to be at an overall disadvantage compared to Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1R drug, orforglipron.
For type 2 diabetes, the HbA1C reduction effect of orforglipron can reach 15%；In the field of weight loss, the curve of GSBR-1290 is also inferior to Orforglipron.
Although the two are not a head-to-head clinical study, GSBR-1290 appears to be uncompetitive based on preliminary clinical data. Because of this, after the release of this data, the share price of Structure Biotech once fell by 4282%。
The circumstances of Structure Biotech prove that the GLP-1 track is demanding the strength of the entrants. Perhaps, Innovent is also aware of this and has started a head-to-head clinical trial.
If Maxlutide can beat semaglutide, then it will definitely have a place in the GLP-1 track.
02 Rising barriers to competition
In fact, head-to-head clinical trials in the field of GLP-1 are already basic operations around the world.
In particular, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, two leading players, hope to squeeze the living space of competitors through head-to-head clinical trials.
In April of this year, Eli Lilly took the lead in challenging Novo Nordisk. It conducted a Phase III clinical trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of the GLP-1 GIP dual agonist tirpatide versus semaglutide in patients with non-type 2 diabetes who are obese or overweight and have weight-related comorbidities.
Eli Lilly's ambitions are not only in terms of beating semaglutide. In September, Eli Lilly conducted another Phase III clinical trial, this time directly comparing the efficacy and safety of orforglipron with an oral version of semaglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes and metformin glycemic insufficiency.
The purpose of this head-to-head clinical trial is quite clear, further squeezing the imagination of semaglutide oral drugs.
It is important to know that orforglipron has an advantage in terms of compliance, and it can be taken without dietary restrictions, while semaglutide tablets need to be fasted for half an hour after taking the drug. If orforglipron can win the first place in terms of efficacy and safety, then the market imagination space of semaglutide tablets will encounter great pressure.
Of course, in the face of Eli Lilly's challenge, Novo Nordisk is naturally not to be outdone. On November 14, in the field of weight loss, Novo Nordisk launched a head-to-head phase III trial of cagrisema and tirpatide, a combination of semaglutide and canglitide.
Behind this round of competition, it is not yet known who will be the ultimate winner.
But one thing is certain, no matter who wins Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, the threshold for weight loss drugs has been continuously raised, and latecomers who want to gain a place in this 100 billion market also need to prove their own strength.