The election campaign on the island is getting closer and closer, and January 2 is the final poll, and the polling companies will be closed before January 3, so the poll results will be released at the last time.
The election campaign is still in a three-legged state, and Lai Qingde is ahead, which makes many people look forward to it"Abandon Ke Baohou" or "Abandon Hou Baoke".The foreclosure effect occurs.
In the past election campaigns, when it came to the third force that abandoned the insurance, it was the chairman of the People First PartySong Chuyu。In 2000, they were the pan-blue army, and there was a third force in the pan-blue camp, so there would be the so-called abandonment.
For example, in 2016, Zhu Lilun of the Kuomintang was weak and Song Chuyu was strong;In 2012 and 2020, the Kuomintang was strong and James Soong was weak.
There are two conditions for the waiver: first, the supporters must hate the person who is about to be elected;Second, it's acceptable for supporters not to hate the second priority in their minds.
Let's look at the blue and whiteThe blue ones will be white, and the reason is that they want to be removed from the shelves, and they don't want the green ones to be elected. But the white ones won't vote for the blue ones, because they're going to break the blue-green ones in the first place.
There are only two ways to vote for the white camp, one is not to vote, and the other is to vote green. That is to say, the white ones do not have the situation of abandoning Ke Baohou, and the blue ones may abandon Hou Baoke.
This is very subtle, indicating that the blue camp operation abandons the insurance, which is very likely to be invalid.
The so-called waiver of insurance, not so mysterious, is to set a goal first, who to abandon, who to protect?And then through the polls, by the direction of the wind to operate. As long as *** ensures that Blue and White cannot give up the insurance, Lai Xiaopei is almost firmly elected.
The specific operation, the direction of the pro-blue poll operation, is to beThe second place in the hype Hou Kangpei has been established, and Ke Wenzhe is the distant third place, and he has no chance of winning, so he has become an abandoned object.
The best strategy for the pro-green poll operation is to let Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe go hand in hand, evenly matched, unable to form a waiver of insurance, and the two sides are evenly matched, which is the most beneficial to Lai Qingde, less than 40%, and can also lie down to win, and the trend of the polls will be brought to this side, so that the outside world can see that the second and third places of blue and white are about the same, and they don't know who to abandon or who to protect.
Ke Wenzhe of the People's Party does not belong to the pan-blue or pan-green, and is even considered by the insiders of the blue camp to be pan-green, so the traditional abandonment operation is not the right way, and in the end, it will be found that there is indeed a non-blue and non-green force supporting Ke Wenzhe. The traditional blue-green is unknown, and the proportion of this group of people in 2024** will determine the growth and decline of the blue-green plate in the future.
If the abandonment of insurance does not occur, and the blue camp is still desperately operating the abandonment of insurance, won't it be screwed?
The root of the twist lies in,Ke Wenzhe is not Song Chuyu. Treat Ke Wenzhe as Song Chuyu to operate, and it's strange if he doesn't overturn.
Ke Wenzhe admires the last seat in most polls, the eternal third, he is not convinced, and he is also worried that the fake polls will make him unable to turn over.
He is unwilling to be judged early by the fake polls, thinking that the polls cannot be allowed to decide to abandon the bail, and he wants to record all the polls on the closure of the customs, and wait for the lottery to be held on the evening of January 13, to see how much difference between those who say that he only has more than a dozen percent of the polls, and how much worse it is from the final reality, and how different the results of the last three polls and votes of each family are. He said that it is necessary to let those institutions and ** that do fake polls withdraw from Taiwan from now on, and bankrupt their credit once and for all, so that they will not be able to collect money to do things in the future.
In essence, the poll is a reference to examine the popularity of candidates and reflect them in public opinion, not a tool used to manipulate elections, but in reality it is the opposite, they are used to manipulate elections and influence the election situation.
Which poll is credible?
This is the ultimate question, and the most difficult to answer, because to a large extent, polls have become a tool for political parties and polling agencies or ** to make money.
In terms of sampling methods, whether local calls or mobile phones are used, and the proportion of each is different, and the change in the sampling ratio will lead to very different results.
The reality is that more than half of the voters in their homes do not know how to use local dialects, but when there are polls, they use local dialects, such as the Formosa Island e-newspaper, which does not conform to the structure of population distribution, and you can only judge for yourself how credible it is.
In different polls, the gap between Lai Xiaopei and Hou Kangpei is as little as 1 to 2 percentage points, and if you bite tightly, you can also open up a double-digit gap. If you think about it with common sense, will so many voters suddenly change their minds when they vote in less than two weeks?
The conclusion is that it is not the sudden change in voters' intentions before and after the lockdown, but the reason why the polling agencies are not accurateThe sampling variability is too great.
In this election, those who win young votes will win the world.
If you distinguish the age groups, the support of Ke Wenzhe and Lai Qingde's young people is up and down, either Ke Lai Sheng, or Ke Sheng, which has nothing to do with Hou Youyi. Hou can't eat this piece, this is alsoThe bottlenecks and dilemmas of the blue camp.
One of the technical reasons for the fluctuation of poll data is that the original sample of pure local dialect polls in the young population is too small, and the result is that as long as there are a few samples in each sample, it will cause obvious changes in the weighted data, such as young people aged 20 to 30, 15 people are drawn this time, and 20 people are drawn next time, only 5 people are different on the surface, the number is not large, but the proportion may be very large, and the weighted may cause violent fluctuations in the overall support.
This is the same as the ratings of TV stations, if the sample number is not particularly large, a slight increase or decrease in the number of samples will lead to sharp fluctuations in the ratings.
Ke Wenzhe is more supported by young people, and this problem is not obvious. However, when the young votes are moved to Lai and Hou, they are prone to big ups and downs, which is also caused by the proportion of young votes.
Ke Wenzhe invented the so-called"The Art of War", "Living Room Revolution", "Little Grass Action", "55 Fighting Methods"., that is, young people, as grandchildren, at least 5 days a week, chat with their elders in the living room at home, and talk for 5 minutes every day, so that they can understand why they want to vote for Ke Wenzhe.
Does this tactic work?This is a subversive revolution in the traditional blue-green style of play, where young people are canvassing for votes from generation to generation at home. Older parents, grandparents, and grandparents usually shoot basketballs or green, will they listen to the canvassing mobilization of the younger generation and change their voting intentions?
High probability. Put yourself in your shoes, parents and grandparents have a set voting direction, which is an inertial action, but if the children and grandchildren tell them that they need to break the blue and green and vote for Ke Wenzhe for a better future for their children and grandchildren, it is possible that the parents and grandparents will be done with ideological work, and they will change the established voting direction for the future and future consideration of their children and grandchildren. In the traditional concept of Chinese, parents are usually willing to sacrifice themselves for the sake of a better life for their children and grandchildren, and they are willing to give up many things. Grandparents and children and grandchildren work against each other, and it is of little significance to insist on the inherent concept.
If every young person can change the voting willingness of three or four people at home and vote for Ke Wenzhe, it means that each family will vote three or four fewer votes for the blue camp or the green camp, what will this lead to?
It's no wonder that Blue-Green isn't nervous.
There is also a premise that the turnout rate of young people should be high enough, not ordinarily high, as Cai Zhengyuan said, it should be as high as 85%, and young people should "climb back" to their places of origin to vote.
Each party also has its own "internal polls," and this poll figure is not open to the public, and it is a secret that each party knows its own well-being.
There is also a poll called "Guo Dong Poll". Guo Taiming can do a large sample poll at any cost, and it can be 3,000, 5,000 or even larger, local calls, mobile phones, all age groups, southern and northern, according to different sub-items, to make more accurate investigations and interpretations, for Guo Taiming to make a decision on who to abandon and who to protect, Guo Fan and economic voters, there are three to five percent of voters, which may have a decisive impact.
But the polls conducted by Guo Taiming's team are not visible to ordinary people, and they are only used by him to mobilize Guo fans at the end.
Outside of all polls, there are also voters' intentions, which cannot be measured in any way, "silent voters", whose intentions will not be revealed until the last minute of voting.
In this election campaign, because of the existence of Ke Wenzhe, a non-blue and non-green figure, there is a high possibility that the traditional polls will be distorted, and the operation of abandoning the guarantee will fail, and the result is very likely to surprise the traditional "abandonment faction" and the pollsters.