The effect of supply interruption is emergingBiden officially announced that Japan's lithography machine may face a dilemma
Cut off supply"Bad consequences"Manifestation?Biden officially announced, foreign media: Japan may lose the lithography machine industry.
Lead. 
In recent years, in the global semiconductor industry pattern, changes in U.S. policy toward China have had a huge impact on many industrial fields. It is not only China that is affected, but also China's allies and other economies, such as Japan and the Netherlands. Of particular concern is the lithography market, which is the core of semiconductor manufacturing and determines the technical level and production capacity of almost the entire semiconductor industry chain.
ASML, Nikon, and Canon are three companies that hold significant positions in the lithography market. In the past, ASML, as a major player in China, almost monopolized most of the market share in China, and its advanced technology and appropriate market strategy enabled it to maintain a leading position in the global market. However, with the changes in the international political and economic situation, especially the US technology ban on China, this situation has begun to change.
The two Japanese giants, Nikon and Canon, have a long history in the lithography machine market. They were technology leaders, but they are falling behind in the competition with ASML. However, when some of ASML's products were banned from being sold in China, this gave Nikon and Canon the opportunity to enter the Chinese market. And this market, for them, is undoubtedly huge. In China, due to the rapid development of the semiconductor industry, the demand for lithography technology is also increasing.
However, this change does not mean that Nikon and Canon can easily gain market share. At the same time, they also have to face technological challenges and competition from manufacturers from other countries. But in this special period, market share and technological progress have become particularly important. Because they are not only related to the company's short-term profits, but also determine the company's position in the future competition in the global semiconductor industry.
The history and current situation of the lithography machine market in Japan.
As a pioneer in the semiconductor industry, Japan has a wealth of experience and technology. Since the 80s of the 20th century, Japan has made a series of technological breakthroughs in the field of lithography, which has greatly contributed to the prosperity of its semiconductor industry.
ASML's technology has always been at the forefront of the world. As a Dutch lithography machine manufacturer, it has always been the first choice in the Chinese market. With advanced lithography technology, led by extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology, ASML has a much larger share of the global market than other manufacturers. In China, it has almost become a monopoly and it is difficult for other lithography machine manufacturers to enter.
However, due to changes in international politics, some of ASML's products are restricted in the Chinese market. This policy change gave Nikon and Canon a glimmer of hope.
Both Nikon and Canon have deep historical backgrounds in Japan. Although they are gradually losing their lead in the technology competition with ASML, their sensitivity to the market and their business network in Asia still give them an advantage.
After some of ASML's products failed to sell in China, Nikon and Canon quickly adjusted their strategies in an attempt to bridge the gap. In particular, both companies see opportunities in the DUV (deep ultraviolet) lithography machine market, a relatively mature technology that is key to Nikon and Canon's rapid market share.
In the process, the two companies each accounted for 10 percent of the global market share4% and 102%。While this figure is well below ASML, it is a considerable improvement for Nikon and Canon.
Changes in the external environment and new strategies.
With the changing global political situation, lithography machine manufacturers not only have to face technical and market challenges, but also face the continuous adjustment of the external environment. The U.S. policy toward China has triggered Japan, the Netherlands and other countries to make corresponding adjustments, which has brought new variables to the lithography machine market.
Biden**'s restrictions on China have had a profound impact on the entire semiconductor industry. This time, Biden has expanded restrictions on Chinese semiconductor equipment and asked his allies Japan and the Netherlands to follow suit. This means that major players such as ASML, Nikon and Canon will have to re-evaluate their strategies in the Chinese market.
ASML in the Netherlands only bans the sale of DUV lithography systems of 2000i or higher, while Japan is much stricter, involving 23 different types of manufacturing equipment. This is undoubtedly a blow to the Japanese lithography machine industry, especially for Nikon and Canon, two companies trying to regain a foothold in the Chinese market.
In the face of these restrictions, China's semiconductor industry has also made corresponding adjustments. Chinese semiconductor giant SMIC announced that it was suspending the expansion of production of 28nm wafers. While this decision may seem unrelated to the lithography machine, the fundamental reason is to conserve existing lithography resources and avoid excessive consumption when repair and maintenance are not possible.
This measure sends a clear signal: if the United States and its allies continue to restrict the production of lithography machines and their components, Chinese companies may not be able to maintain normal production operations, even with advanced lithography machine technology.
Faced with this challenge, Japanese lithography machine manufacturers need to re-evaluate their market strategies. At present, there are still low-end products of ASML in the Chinese market, which means that Japanese manufacturers need to find new advantages in terms of technology and market in order to differentiate themselves from ASML.
In addition, although Biden ** cut after-sales service, this does not mean that Japanese manufacturers cannot make a difference in the Chinese market. They can circumvent these restrictions and continue to serve the Chinese market by partnering with local companies, transferring technology, setting up repair centers, etc.
Impact on Japan's semiconductor industry and future prospects.
Given that Japan's position in the global lithography machine market is gradually being threatened, Japanese semiconductor equipment manufacturers must re-examine and adjust their positioning in the international market.
The economic data for 2023 is a cold reality for the Japanese lithography machine industry. Nikon's profit fell by 786%, * 6 lithography machines, a year-on-year decrease of 60%. This is a clear indication that semiconductor equipment manufacturers in Japan are facing unprecedented difficulties.
Foreign reports clearly state that Nikon has felt the cuts"Negative effects"。Similarly, Canon, Ushio, and other device manufacturers face a similar fate to Nikon. If this trend continues, Japan may gradually lose its leading position in the field of lithography machines.
Japan is home to many technology companies with a global reach, such as Amor, Sony, and Toshiba. There is a huge demand for advanced lithography technology from these companies. If NIL technology does not progress, or if Japan loses its competitiveness in the field of lithography technology, these technology giants will also face tremendous pressure and challenges.
With so many challenges, Japanese semiconductor equipment manufacturers need to make strategic adjustments. First, they must invest more in research and technology development to ensure they remain at the forefront of technology. Secondly, it is necessary to strengthen cooperation with other countries and regions and find new markets and partners.
In the long run, Japanese semiconductor equipment manufacturers must recognize that competition in the lithography machine industry has shifted from pure technological competition to a comprehensive competition in technology, market, and politics. Only by integrating these three aspects can we win in the competition in the future.
Conclusions and far-reaching implications.
In the early days of globalization, all industrial changes were not just a matter for one country or company. As a key link in semiconductor production, the fate of the lithography technology industry is closely related to the global semiconductor industry and technology development trends.
The impact of the U.S. strategy on China on Japan actually reflects the tensions in the global semiconductor chain. This tension has hindered technical exchanges and cooperation to a certain extent, and has also led to the restructuring and adjustment of the global semiconductor industry.
Although Japan has been challenged in the field of lithography technology in the short term, it has also created new opportunities for Japan. In such a situation, Japanese companies can deepen internal cooperation and promote technological innovation, while seeking new forms and opportunities for cooperation with other countries.
In the long run, policies and relationships are constantly changing, while the power of technology and innovation is continuous. With its deep technology accumulation and strong R&D capabilities, Japan still has the ability to maintain its leading position in the global lithography machine industry as long as it makes appropriate adjustments to its existing strategies.
Although the current situation presents many challenges to the Japanese lithography machine industry, as long as it continues to innovate, find new ways to cooperate, and adapt to changes in the global economy and policies, the Japanese lithography machine industry has the opportunity to continue to thrive. And this process will also become an example of the continuous development and adjustment of the global semiconductor industry.