In the past two years, as the property market has cooled, the land market has been slaughtered, and the area of new construction has declined
The answer to this question will be answered later, first look at the situation of ** reduction.
Before looking at the ** situation, let's look at the land and real estate investment status.
The commercial housing sales market and the land market are interdependent, with both prosperity and loss. The sales of commercial housing have declined, and land is naturally difficult to sell.
Our income from land sales, since the national real estate turnaround in 2022, has also been declining.
2021 is the peak, when the income from land sales reached 8,705.1 billion yuan, which fell to 6,685.4 billion yuan last year, a year-on-year increase of **232%。
In the first 11 months of this year, the data disclosed by the Ministry of Finance showed that:
The income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 4,203.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 179%。
Data: The Ministry of Finance has an average monthly income of 382.1 billion yuan from land sales, and it is estimated that the annual land sales income may be 4About 6 trillion.
At the same time, real estate development investment has been on the road since it turned down in April last year.
The National Bureau of Statistics discloses:
From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 104045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94%；Among them, residential investment was 7,885.2 billion yuan, down by 90%。
*: The National Bureau of Statistics This is a direct portrayal of the contraction of the land acquisition strategy of real estate companies and the lack of money to start construction.
Against this background, housing starts are falling, naturally.
According to data disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics, the area of new housing starts in 2022 was 120.6 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 394%。Among them, the area of newly started residential buildings is 88.1 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 398%。
*: The National Bureau of Statistics can see that both the total housing starts and the number of residential starts decreased by 4% last year.
Jiemian News said that last year's per capita construction area was only 096 square meters, down to the level of 2015, that is, down to 17 years ago.
In the same period, the sales area also fell from "Double 18" in 2021 to "Double 13", that is, the sales area of commercial housing fell from 1.8 billion square meters to 1.3 billion square meters, and the sales fell from 18 trillion to 13 trillion.
As can be seen in the table above, the area of commercial housing sales last year was 135.8 billion square meters.
The area of new construction starts is decreasing, and although the area of sales is also decreasing, it is still much more than the area of construction started, and this result will theoretically lead to a decrease in the amount of inventory in the market.
In the first 11 months of this year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the area of new housing construction was 874.56 million square meters, a decrease of 212%。Among them, the area of new residential construction was 637.37 million square meters, a decrease of 215%。
In the first 11 months of this year, the sales volume fell from last year's "Double 13" to "Double 10".
The National Bureau of Statistics discloses:
In the first 11 months, the sales area of commercial housing was 100509 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 80%, of which the area of residential sales decreased by 73%。The sales of commercial buildings 105318 billion yuan, down 52%, of which residential sales fell 43%。
*: The gap between the area of new construction and the area of sales by the National Bureau of Statistics seems to have once again reduced the inventory in the market.
This is also the reason why many people are worried that the decline in the area of construction will trigger housing prices again.
Will it be ** again for this reason?Of course not.
First, the inventory is high and the supply exceeds demand, which is the status quo.
On the surface, the area of new construction has decreased a lot in the past two years, and the increase has not been sold much, which will lead to a decrease in inventory.
However, a fundamental question is overlooked, which is how many houses have been built and how much inventory has been built in the past decade or so of rapid urbanization.
Only from 2005 to the present. In the 19 years since 2005, there have been 13 years in which the area under construction has been greater than the area sold. The former is less than the latter for 6 years.
Data: From 2005 to the end of November this year, the National Bureau of Statistics started construction in 218 new areas600 million square meters, sales area of 203500 million square meters.
The cumulative area of new construction starts is 15 more than the area of sales100 million square meters. If the sales area falls to 1 billion, 900 million or even 800 million square meters next year, then even if there is no increase in the number of houses in the country, it can be sold for more than a year and a half.
And that's just since 2005.
In fact, since the housing reform in 1998, the vast urbanization, residential buildings in first, second, third, fourth and fifth tier cities have sprung up, and the overall number of our houses has been seriously surplus.
Huang Qifan once revealed that there is a serious surplus of houses in China, there is no need to continue to build, and there is no demand. 20% of the population has built 50% of the world's houses.
In March this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development released a set of data, showing that there are 600 million buildings in the country.
Although these buildings include residential housing, factories, office buildings, government agencies, etc., generally speaking, urban residential buildings (commercial housing, residential buildings, small property rights, industrial dormitories) account for more than half, and the vast majority of rural buildings are residential.
Based on this estimate, there should be about 400 million houses that belong to the residential nature, which is an astronomical number when converted into a complete set.
In addition, the data disclosed by Zeping Macro shows: Among the various types of cities, only the first-tier cities are below 1, and the second-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities are both greater than 1.
The so-called household ratio is the ratio of the number of housing units to the number of households in the city, and greater than 1 means that the number of housing units is more than the number of households, and the supply exceeds demand.
In other words, only first-tier cities still have a shortage of housing, and other cities are in excess of demand.
According to Qiu Baoxing, former vice minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, at the "2022 China Urban High-quality Development Think Tank Forum", the current housing vacancy rate has reached 15%, and some provinces have reached 25% or even 30%.
Do you think there will be fewer houses?
It can be said that except for a very few top cities such as Shenzhen, more than 95% of China's urban housing supply is in excess of demand. That's the reality.
Based on several realities, the Politburo meeting in the middle of this year re-set the tone of the property market
Adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of China's real estate market.
Second, under the dual-track system, affordable housing will come in clusters.
In a previous article, I emphasized that an epoch-making event occurred in China's real estate this year, and the official review and approval of the "Guiding Opinions on the Planning and Construction of Affordable Housing", also known as "Document No. 14".
The mainstream ** unanimously commented on this as China's second housing reform.
The arrival of Document No. 14 declares that China's real estate market has once again entered the era of dual-track system, that is, the era of parallel commercial housing and affordable housing.
Why do you want to engage in the construction of affordable housing?Document No. 14 clearly puts forward two major goals for the construction of affordable housing:
The first is to increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, "so that the wage and salary income groups can gradually realize home ownership, eliminate the anxiety of not being able to buy commercial housing, and let go of their hands and feet to strive for a better life";
The second is to promote the establishment of a new model for the transformation and development of the real estate industry, so that commercial housing can return to its commodity attributes, meet the demand for improved housing, promote stable land prices, stable housing prices, and stable expectations, and promote the transformation and high-quality development of the real estate industry.
These two statements mean that most cities in China may move towards the Singapore model in the future, delineating two circles for future real estate, one for commercial housing and one for affordable housing.
Affordable housing guarantees that people who can't afford commercial housing to live in, and commercial housing allows rich people to play, of course, it must also be based on stability.
With the advent of the dual-track system of affordable housing and commercial housing, affordable housing will divert more than half of the demand of the commercial housing market in the future.
This is also the reason why this number has repeatedly emphasized that the market demand for commercial housing will be further weakened in the future.
Moreover, affordable housing is the leading factor, and the amount will be a blowout in the next few years. Do you think there will be fewer houses?
Third, demand is decreasing.
This decrease in demand needs to be divided into three.
One is that there is less and less effective demand in large cities.
Theoretically speaking, the demand for housing in big cities is still very strong, after all, the housing ownership rate in big cities is relatively low, in Shenzhen, Shenzhen's housing ownership rate is only about 30%, that is, there are about 70% of people who do not have their own houses.
But what's the use of empty demand, can't afford it, these needs are invalid needs.
Under the high housing prices and low income, many people struggle for a lifetime and cannot see the hope of buying a house, not to mention that there is great uncertainty in income and employment now.
There are more people who can't afford to buy a house than before.
Second, demand peaked in most second-tier and lower cities.
Taking Chongqing as an example, public information shows that as early as 2015, Chongqing had 915% of households own their own homes.
That is, nearly 92% of the people in Chongqing have their own housing, this is a report by China News Network.
It is difficult to query the data of the rent ownership rate in each city, and only the overall situation of Zhejiang Province and the whole country can be queried from the public information.
In Zhejiang Province, in 2022, the data released by the Zhejiang Provincial Bureau of Statistics showed that according to the sample survey data of the seventh population census form:
In 2020, the housing ownership rate of households in the province was 6471%, of which 35% are self-built01%, self-purchased homes accounted for 2863%。The proportion of households with rental housing was 3365%。In terms of regions, Quzhou has the highest housing ownership rate of 9004%, Jinhua City has the lowest housing ownership rate of 5627%。
Nationally, in mid-to-late October last year, the 2019 Survey Group on the Assets and Liabilities of Urban Households of the Survey and Statistics Department of the Central Bank of China conducted a survey on the assets and liabilities of more than 30,000 urban households in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government).
The results of the survey were published in 2020:
China's urban household assets are dominated by real assets, with housing accounting for nearly 70% and housing ownership reaching 96%.The proportion of financial assets is relatively low, only 204%, households prefer risk-free financial assets. It is worth mentioning that among the world's major countries, China's household home ownership rate may reach the first place in the world.
The house ownership rate counted here should be counted as rural houses, that is, if you don't have a house in Shenzhen, your hometown has a house, which is also counted. Such data is not very significant, and it is obviously high.
However, according to the data released by Chongqing and Zhejiang provinces, the home ownership rate in most second-tier cities and below is still very high.
The self-possession rate is high, and the demand naturally peaks.
Third, the population has peaked, and the population of third- and fourth-tier cities is generally decreasing.
Of the 286 cities that have released population data for 2022, only 128 cities have seen population growth, two are the same, and 156 cities are experiencing population decline.
Among them, the population decline cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, as well as hot cities such as Tianjin, Changchun, Foshan, and Dongguan.
Data: The population of the city statistics bureau is the cornerstone of the property market, the population is decreasing, the demand is weakening, and most of the third- and fourth-tier cities have entered a long adjustment cycle without the support of the monetary reform.
To sum up, the overall supply exceeds demand, affordable housing will blow out in the next few years, and the demand for commercial housing is decreasing, which is the fundamentals of real estate.
In addition, the real estate has entered the adjustment cycle, the macro environment and the lack of confidence are difficult to reshape, and the real estate adjustment cycle will continue.