1. Comments on the market;
Today, because the weekend data was less than expected, the market opened low and produced nearly 4,000**, and the northbound peak also flowed out about 10 billion.
Then in the afternoon, driven by the brokerage, the index was pulled back, so that the market that was originally close to 4,000 ** changed to nearly 4,000 **.
Judging from the active group chat news in the future, everyone is generally still happy today, because many people have begun to scold and scold when the peak loss is at the peak in the morning, and they have begun to disbelieve in our big A market, and as of now**Most people not only did not lose money, but also generated some profits.
I also saw some friends shouting in the group:Niu Hui, the slogan of quick return
So here comes the question:Is this position really going to stop falling and reverse upwards?
My own opinion is this:Whether it can be reversed or not, in fact, we still have to look at the amount of energy
Judging from the recent market volume, last Friday in the case of an extremely sluggish market, the volume of energy was still able to be amplified, indicating that someone came in close to the low position before 2923"Suck chips".Target.
Similarly, when the lowest point of the index hit 2930 points in the morning, the trading volume was amplified again, so it is almost certain that there is a pair"Invisible hands".In the support of the index does not let the index in this position of the **.
So to sum up:As long as the volume of the market can continue to amplify, then the trend of the negative decline can be changed with a high probability, that is to say, you can relax a little, even if it will not reverse immediately, it will not continue to fall sharply in this position.
*, you can add a little more when you are on the lows, and slowly welcome the arrival of the real reversal moment later.
2. The comments on convertible bonds mainly talk about Keda's convertible bonds;
Koda
Keda's stock is still strong today, and the number of buy one is 468w hands.
In Tonghshun, the popularity ranking of several well-known financial ** such as East F Fortune and X Ball is still high, which shows that most people still want to gamble this ticket.
From the perspective of the quantitative performance of the underlying stock, it belongs to shrinkage**, and we discuss it from a technical perspective: shrinkage**also**.
However, the convertible bond is one step ahead of the underlying stock, and today it does not rise, but **.
Many people who gamble on the linkage of stocks and bonds are a little confused:Why is the underlying stock capped, but the convertible bond is repaid?
I mentioned this in my previous article;
First:Some convert debt it is"Zhuang debt, demon debt"., itself is not with the rise and fall of the underlying stock, nor does it look at the premium rate, the logic of speculation depends on the main force (Gouzhuang) in the hands of the profit plate chips and"Mood".to decide.
Second:The underlying stock rises and the convertible bond falls, which means that most of the funds in the market think that maybe the underlying stock will start to fall tomorrow, so they are ahead of schedule"Runaway".
Third:The underlying stock rises, the convertible bond falls, and some convertible bonds will have a negative premium rate within the day.
So does it mean that there is a possibility that the main force of the ** underlying stock has reached an agreement with the underlying company privately?"Some kind of x-talk".By raising the premium rate of convertible bonds by raising the underlying stocks, it is hoped that those who hold convertible bonds will convert their shares, so as to achieve the purpose of forced redemption (this is just Maimai's conjecture, everyone knows after reading it).
For Keda, not only did it not follow the rise and fall of the underlying stock today, but the end of the market still started the trend of acceleratingWhat is the number of ways it usually dives at the end of the day
There are also many reasons for the tail diving, since it is mainly about Keda's debt conversion, I simply talked about it together;
The first reason:Because convertible bonds are a T+0 trading system, a lot of funds do not want to stay overnight, so when they are near the end of the market, they see that there is no sign of continuing to rise on the trend, so they simply come out first and wait for the next day to see the strength of the underlying stock when they call the auction to decide to get on the bus or give up Keda.
The second reason:Some funds are not optimistic about its next day, and feel that there is no ** today, so there is a high probability that it will continue tomorrow, so they simply came out in advance.
The third reason:It is the shipment behavior of the main force.
When the main force has eaten almost, then it will choose a suitable time to ship, if it is a plate **, it will let other profit chips in the field follow suit, resulting in"Stampede".Risk, its goods can't be shipped, and when it is close to the first, many people will not react at once, and it will be too late to sell, and the main order will be relatively smooth.
Fourth reason:The main force of the washing and sucking behavior.
When the main force wants to continue to pull up the next day, then he will find a way to get more cheap enough chips, and by the way of a sharp drop in the end of the game, he can make some ** panic stop loss, resulting in the loss of chips in his hand.
As for today's sharp fall at the end of Keda, what is the road number? Now we can only predict through the analysis of the above few days, and can not answer accurately, we will wait until tomorrow ** after we will look back and review today's trend to be able to really accurately know what the road is?
After reading itThumbs upLooking
Ok, I'm Mai Mai, that's all for today's sharing.
Good luck and good luck to all of you in the Year of the Rabbit