Last week's brokerage index (CSI All-Share Index **Company Index)**129%, continuing the adjustment trend of the previous week, as of December 4, 2023, the valuation level (PB price-to-book ratio) of the brokerage sector is at 14At the historical bottom of the 87% percentile, the market's pessimism about sector fundamentals has been fully reflected in valuations as A-shares return to the downturn**.
wind, as of December 4, 2023.
On the other hand, the bullish forces are also increasing, and the sector represents the ETF-Brokerage ETF (512000).Recently, funds have continued to increase their positions. According to the data of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the brokerage ETF (512000) has received net funds for 6 consecutive days, with a total of gold4.1.1 billion yuan!
wind, as of December 4, 2023.
The game and entanglement are repeated and staged, and it is a familiar taste, the same and different, what are the new changes in the internal and external environment?Are there new opportunities in the pipeline?
Looking back at historical performance,Policy & LiquidityIt is the core catalyst of the brokerage sector. At present, the core catalyst of policy and liquidity is expected to usher in resonance, and the introduction of medium and long-term funds, the encouragement of business innovation of leading brokerages, mergers and acquisitions and other industry policies may still be expected.
In terms of the introduction of medium and long-term fundsFollowing the sweep of banks and ETFs by Huijin, and last Friday (December 1), the state-owned capital operation company entered the ETF products linked to the central enterprise index under a number of public offering companies, and said that it would continue to increase its holdings in the future. This move aims to boost the market's confidence in investing in A-shares, and also indicates that long-term funds are expected to accelerate their entry into the market, and the policy has obvious intention to rescue the market.
In addition,Favorable policies for the brokerage industry have been frequently introducedIn November, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) expressed its support for the leading companies to become better and stronger through business innovation, group operation, mergers and acquisitions, etc., and at the same time revised the risk control indicators to loosen the leverage of securities firms, which once again verified the sustainability of the active capital market policy.
Under the regulatory guidance of intensive development of the industry (restricting equity financing), supporting the good and limiting the inferior, and encouraging the integration of mergers and acquisitions in the industry, the integration of mergers and acquisitions may be expected to enter an accelerated period due to the intensification of competition in the industry and the increase in profit differentiationThe main line of mergers and acquisitions may become an important main line opportunity for the brokerage sector in the future.
Return to sector fundamentals,Judging from the current policy intensity of the regulator for the reform of the investment side, the certainty of the gradual improvement of the external business environment of the follow-up industry is strong, and the overall business performance of the industry is expected to further improve. With the construction of the bottom of the superimposed valuation, the further downside is limited, and it has a high cost performance and margin of safety.
Some institutions suggest that the current market is pessimistic about the sector is far beyond the actual situation, and historical experience shows that the brokerage sector can usually obtain absolute returns at the bottom of the valuation, and the current or better allocation time of the sector.
According to public information, the brokerage ETF (512000) tracks the CSI All-Index ** company index, and includes 50 listed brokerage stocks with one click, of which nearly 6 percent are concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages, and the leading companies of "big asset management" + "big investment banks" gather;In addition, 4 into the first into the performance of small and medium-sized brokerages high flexibility, absorbing the characteristics of small and medium-sized brokerages staged high explosion, is a concentrated layout of the head brokers, while taking into account the small and medium-sized brokerages of high-efficiency investment tools.
Data**: Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges.
Risk Warning: Brokerage ETF passively tracks the CSI All-Index ** Company Index, which has a base date of 20076.29, released in 20137.15。The composition of the index constituents will be adjusted in accordance with the rules of the index. The index constituents in this article are for display purposes only, and the description is not intended as investment advice of any kind, nor does it represent any ** position information and trading trends of the manager. The Manager has assessed this risk rating as R3-Medium Risk, which is suitable for investors with an Suitability rating of C3 or above. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to **, comments, **charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only, and investors shall be responsible for any investment behavior determined independently. In addition, any opinions, analysis and ** in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, nor do they assume any responsibility for direct or indirect losses caused by the use of the content of this article. **Investment is risky, ** past performance is not indicative of its future performance, ** other ** performance managed by the Manager does not constitute a guarantee of ** performance, ** investment should be cautious.
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