Although Putin insists that Russia's operational goals in Ukraine remain unchanged and that it must be "demilitarized," "denazified," and "neutralized," Putin's true thoughts may be at odds with what he has publicly said. According to the source's revelations, Putin said in a secret diplomatic service that he was willing to reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine. Of course, the ceasefire agreement that Putin is talking about is naturally a ceasefire along the existing line of actual control between Russia and Ukraine.
According to sources, in fact, Putin has been open to a ceasefire since September last year. In other words, in fact, Putin has had enough of fighting a long time ago and is satisfied with his gains on the Ukrainian territorial issue.
If this revelation is true, it means that Putin is satisfied. However, the whistleblower also said that Putin will not make any concessions on the disputed territorial issue. It seems that this should be a bottom line for Putin, and it can also be seen as the bottom line for Russia's future negotiations.
However, Putin is satisfied, Ukraine and the West may not be able to satisfy a ceasefire on the spot, and the negotiations on the Ukraine issue are very complicated, it does not only involve territorial issues, but also many technical details. So it's one thing for Putin to release a signal for negotiations, but whether it can be realized in the end, and whether the other side will pick up the other side is another thing entirely. Let's take a look at Putin's current real thoughts on the battlefield in Ukraine.
a) What exactly are Putin's goals in Ukraine?Territory.
On December 24, the reference news network reported such a news: Although Putin has always claimed that Russia's combat goals against Ukraine have not changed, "we will not give up what belongs to us, if they want to negotiate, let them negotiate". But in the secret diplomacy he has recently promoted, Mr. Putin has signaled a different story: he is ready for a deal, and he is open to a ceasefire on the battlefield in Ukraine.
This report is very interesting and worth it**. In fact, there is a lot of interest to the outside world, especially the West, about what exactly Putin wants to achieve in Ukraine. At the beginning of the war in February last year, Putin set three goals, except for the goal of "neutralization", which is very clear, the other two goals are very empty, in other words, both goals are very flexible, and they will be interpreted differently depending on the situation on the battlefield.
To give two examples: when it comes to the "demilitarization" of Ukraine, the outside world is confused at first, what does this mean?Is it to limit the number of troops in Ukraine, the level of development of armaments?Or even further, simply Ukraine, like Palestine now, maintains only a certain number of police forces, and the rest of the army is completely disarmed?
When it comes to another "denazification", there is more to it. There are many militias in Ukraine that are considered ultra-nationalist and neo-Nazist, the most famous of which is the "Azov Battalion", which made its name during the battle for Mariupol last year. If taken literally, the banning or elimination of these controversial armed forces is Russia's war objective. However, the so-called "denazification" can also be further expanded, for example, in Russia's view, "anti-Russian" can also be considered a kind of "Nazification", if the Russian army starts to fight smoothly and takes Kyiv in one fell swoop, it is not ruled out that in the end Russia will directly change to a pro-Russian ** in Ukraine.
In short, the operational objectives mentioned by Putin are all very flexible interpretations, as for how to define, from the perspective of the Russian army, I am afraid it depends on their progress on the battlefield, if it goes smoothly and fights far, then the scope is more extensive, if the progress is not smooth, then make a conservative statement about the scope, or simply do not mention it.
At the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Russian side often mentioned these three goals, but with the defeat of the Russian army under the city of Kyiv in March last year and the withdrawal of troops from the vicinity of Kyiv, the outside world is generally suspicious: Can Russia still achieve these three goals?The subsequent development of the war situation is also unexpected, the goal of the second phase of the Russian army is to take the entire Donbas region, but as of now, the Russian army is still very far from this goal. What's more interesting is that in the middle, the Ukrainian army also came to Kharkov**, and even forced the Russian army away directly from the direction of Kherson.
Seeing this, the outside world generally realizes that the three goals set by Putin are estimated to be difficult to achieve, after all, what cannot be obtained on the battlefield, let alone other occasions. That being the case, what exactly is Putin's goal on the battlefield in Ukraine?This is very questionable from the outside world.
And this revelation from the reference news network seems to give an answer: territory, and now Putin's goal is likely to be to hold the territory he has taken on the battlefield in Ukraine.
As for Putin openly saying that the combat goals of the Russian army have not changed, it is enough to listen to these words, for politicians, it is normal to say some morale-boosting words in public and sing some high-profile songs, for example, didn't the G7 also keep saying that it would support Ukraine to fight?And the West also said: as long as Ukraine fights, they will help?But as a result, the Republicans were directly stuck in the aid to Ukraine bill, Biden was helpless, and Secretary of Defense Austin even directly issued a naked threat, but the Republicans didn't eat that. Didn't the Italian Prime Minister also say the phrase "they are already tired of this conflict" under the guidance of the Russian mischievous duo before?
Therefore, for politicians, the statements on the table are not worth scrutinizing, their private statements are the most important, and this is what they really think in their hearts. Therefore, Putin's statement that he privately revealed that he wants to reach a ceasefire agreement is very worthy of attention, and more precisely, it is very likely to be true, and even more worthy of observation than some of Putin's public statements.
But there's another detail to savor: secret diplomacy. Putin is willing to reach a cease-fire agreement, which he has publicly revealed in secret diplomacy. Secret diplomacy here is worth it**, but what does it mean?
Taken literally, it is a kind of private diplomacy that has not been put on the table, or even known. Now, on the surface, the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations are in a state of stagnation, but in private, Russia should still have a secret negotiation channel with the outside world, and this negotiation channel is likely to be a negotiation between Russia and the West, and it is not excluded that a third country is taking on this role. However, if you look at it from this point of view, there is a secret channel of communication between Russia and the West and Ukraine in private, and it is not known whether it is direct or indirect.
So what exactly does Putin think about the battlefield in Ukraine?According to a report by the reference news network, the source has said this: at least since last September, Putin has been communicating through intermediaries: he is open to a ceasefire and is willing to cease fighting on the current front. The source also made a special mention: although this is far from his ambition to dominate all of Ukraine.
In September last year?Isn't that when the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack against Russia in Kharkiv?At that time, the Russian army was attacked by the Ukrainian army, and the latter's offensive was very fierce, and the Russian army was driven out of almost the entire Kharkiv region. However, it was not the best time to send a signal for negotiations at that time, and the victory of the Ukrainian army in Kharkiv gave both them and the West hope of defeating Russia and driving the Russian army out of the whole of Ukraine. Putin sends a signal to his opponent to negotiate at this time, and it will naturally not succeed.
However, the "Putin's ambition to dominate the whole of Ukraine" mentioned by the source is worth it**, it seems that Putin's goal is not limited to the whole of Donbass, and it is not limited to Ukraine to remain neutral between Russia and the West, he wants to return Ukraine to Russia's political sphere of influence.
2) Putin seems to be satisfied, and his private proposal for a ceasefire at this time also has certain favorable objective conditions.
Sources revealed: At that time, Putin also hinted that he was very satisfied with the land that the Russian army had obtained in Ukraine. It seems that land is an important target for Putin in this conflict. The reference news network also said that in the autumn of this year, the Russian side revealed that they are willing to negotiate a ceasefire, and they are inclined to cease fire according to the current situation on the battlefield. In other words, the Russian army will not withdraw from the territory it has acquired from Ukraine.
A former Russian ** mentioned the Kremlin's whispered message: Putin is only willing to cease the war on the spot, and as for the territorial issue, he will not take a step back. The reference news network also mentioned a very important detail: although Putin is very concerned about the performance of the Russian army on the battlefield and is keen on the historical task of regaining Russia's "inherent territory", he is also quite eager for the majority of Russians to return to normal life.
Speaking of which, it is still a territorial issue, and perhaps this is one of the most critical reasons for the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Regarding the territorial dispute between Russia and Ukraine, it has actually been going on for a long time, and Putin has often mentioned these 4 words before: historical territory. This is the historical legacy of Russia and Ukraine. Previously, there has been a map of the territorial composition of Ukraine circulating on the Internet, which includes the territorial composition of Ukraine in different periods, including Kharkiv Oblast all the way south to Odessa, these oblasts were given to Ukraine during the Lenin period, and Crimea was given to Ukraine by Khrushchev.
Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia and Ukraine were one family, so there was no problem with the change of territory, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the problem came out, and as Ukraine accelerated to keep up with the West and constantly moved away from Russia, this can make Putin a little unbearableThis may be the historical task of Putin's enthusiasm to get back the "inherent territory" exposed by the reference news network. And it is also the key reason for the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as for how much "historical territory" Putin wants to get back, it is unknown, it is estimated that it will be assessed according to the advance of the Russian army.
Now Putin has hinted again: he is willing to agree on a ceasefire. It seems that Putin is satisfied with what he has gained in Ukraine. However, judging from the objective conditions, Putin's hint of a ceasefire at this time should be at a favorable time.
First, after several months, the Ukrainian army stopped at the "Surovikin Line", and the results achieved were very small. For the Russian army, the ** defeat of the Ukrainian army is naturally a success of its own. However, if the Russian army wants to continue the offensive, it is obviously impossible to try to take more territory from the Ukrainian side, as Zaluzhny said, now neither the Russian army nor the Ukrainian army can push it, and the battlefield is a stalemate.
Second, the defeat of Ukraine and the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine have caused the West to have "fatigue", and the West has become very tired of this conflict, and support for Ukraine has continued to decline.
Third, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that broke out on October 7 has diverted the attention of the international community from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and now the Gaza conflict has far exceeded the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The reduction in outside attention is clearly not in favor of Ukraine and more in favor of Russia.
Anyway, the situation on the battlefield is deadlocked, neither Russia nor Ukraine can push forward, and the West is very tired of it, for Putin, now is a favorable time to accept the good and reach a ceasefire negotiations.
And if this conflict continues, it will actually not be good for Russia, and the continuous investment of manpower and material resources is a big consumption of Russia's national strength, who will be cheaper in the end?Isn't it the United States yet!
Moreover, judging from the battlefield situation, since neither side can fight and cannot push forward, then there is only a ceasefire according to the comparison of strength, that is, a ceasefire on the spot.
3) It is difficult to negotiate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and Putin is satisfied, but the West and Ukraine will not be satisfied.
But this is just Putin's personal thoughts, so will the West and Ukraine agree to Putin's suggestion?Apparently impossible. First of all, for Ukraine, if there is a ceasefire on the spot, it will mean that it is in danger of permanently losing its occupied territories, because once a ceasefire is reached, the West is likely to stop large-scale military aid to Ukraine on the grounds of peace, so that Ukraine's recovery of lost territory will be completely in vain. And if a ceasefire agreement is really reached with Russia, I am afraid that the pressure on Zelensky will be great at that time, and the country will be like this, the country will be lost, and the people will be displaced, and the voters in Ukraine may not agree.
As for Western countries, I'm afraid they won't agree either, and the first one to disagree is probably Biden**. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has indeed consumed a lot of military aid from the United States, but this conflict has also provided the United States with a huge period of strategic opportunity, and Biden's traditional politicians who came out of the Cold War era are very wary of Russia. And Russia is also a major adversary in the "great power competition" of the United States. Now that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has completely tied Europe to the United States, and at the same time has given the United States a strategic opportunity to weaken Russia, how can the United States give up this strategic dividend?While Republicans are tired of the conflict, Biden is clearly making a compromise to persuade Republicans to continue aiding Ukraine. So from the U.S. perspective, it's hard to imagine him agreeing with Putin's hint of a ceasefire on the spot.
Even if Ukraine and the West really come to the ceasefire table with Russia, the two sides face many detailed problems. For the territorial issue, Russia and Ukraine will not back down, Putin also expects these territories to give an explanation to the Russian people, and at the same time add another historical position to himself, and how can Ukraine allow itself to give up its territory?In addition, how should Russia respond to the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO in the negotiations?Will Russia talk to the West about the severe sanctions it has encountered, and how should the West respond?These are very important technical details.
However, the most important thing is that both sides lack a sense of trust, especially Ukraine and the West, which may have a very big distrust of Russia, in their view, the ceasefire may be Putin's "delaying strategy", and Russia will continue to make a comeback in the future when it is more prepared. And they probably won't believe the agreement signed by Putin, after all, Putin also agreed with the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the territorial boundaries of Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and later?2014 and 2022 are concrete examples. Thinking of this, Ukraine and the West are probably even less likely to talk to Putin about a ceasefire.
So Putin is satisfied, but his opponents are probably not going to meet Putin's demand for a ceasefire on the spot for various reasons, especially in Ukraine, where there may be no room for a ceasefire on issues involving national sovereignty and territory. Therefore, it is difficult for a ceasefire to emerge in Ukraine, and it is not enough for one side to have the will.
Moreover, Putin's willingness to privately express his desire for a ceasefire this time cannot be ruled out as a false impression to the West: Putin may not be able to withstand it. In the future, it cannot be ruled out that the United States will continue to increase military aid to Ukraine and fight with Russia.