**: Sanya Finance International Forum, "Caijing" new**.
Wei Jie, a well-known economist, is a professor and doctoral supervisor at the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University, and the dean of the Institute of Cultural Economics of Tsinghua University
On December 16, the "Sanya Finance International Forum" was held in Sanya, Hainan Province, with the theme of "Exploring the Road to High-level Opening in a Complex Environment" with the support of the people of Sanya and co-sponsored by Caijing, Caijing.com and Caijing Think Tank. Wei Jie, professor of the Department of Innovation, Entrepreneurship and Strategy of Tsinghua University and dean of the Institute of Cultural Economics, pointed outWe should continue to deepen the reform of the income distribution system, continue to encourage people to become rich, strengthen people's pursuit of wealth, and expand the proportion of middle incomeAt the same time, in the distribution of national income, we can consider tilting towards people's livelihood"We have done a good job in infrastructure over the years, but should we tilt people's livelihood, such as education, medical care, housing, etc., to solve people's worries." ”
In addition, Wei Jie also suggested that the leverage ratio for next year can be appropriately liberalized, and continue to play the role of fiscal policy and monetary policy to inject more impetus into improving consumption capacity.
The following is a partial transcript of the speech:
Wei Jie:Dear friends, it is a great pleasure to participate in our forum. After listening to the reports of Director Zhang and Dean Gao, I was deeply inspired, both comprehensive and profound. Then, I would like to have some exchanges with all of you on the two specific issues encountered after the first economic work conference.
One issue is that in opening up to the outside world, it is necessary to stabilize the basic situation of foreign trade and foreign investment. After "News Network", someone called me ** and asked a question, what is the basic disk?For example, there are two data in the basic foreign trade market, one is the scale of import and export, and the other is the scale of surplus. There are also two data for foreign investment, one is the scale of foreign investment, and the other is new foreign investment, which is the basic market of foreign investment.
We're only going to talk about the basics, but I can't really answer how much. Later, I said, whether it is a dynamic concept, it is difficult to have a specific concept of what the basic market is. For example, the total import and export volume and the total surplus in 2018 are the basic foreign trade in 2019, and the scale of foreign investment and the scale of foreign import and export in 2018 are the basic foreign investment in 2019.
I consulted experts in this area, what is the basic plate?There are two main data on foreign trade, one is the scale of import and export, and the other is the surplus;The data of foreign investment, one is the scale of foreign investment, and the other is the data of new foreign investment. How much is called the basic plate?As a result, their answers were all different.
It just so happened that I had data on foreign trade and foreign investment in the past fifteen years in my computer, and I did a combing, but I didn't find the answer to this question, but I found a pattern. Generally speaking, when the domestic economy is relatively good, the foreign trade situation is relatively good, and when the domestic economy is good, the foreign investment situation is also very good. Foreign capital is profit-seeking, and this is one of my gains. Is the next step for us to pay more attention to the stability of the domestic economy and discuss it as an important basis for opening up under the complex and changeable international situation?It could be a little better that way.
The second question, this ** economic work conference, mentioned the pressure we are currently experiencing. Placed in the first place is the lack of effective demand. Dean Gao repeatedly said that it was a "bull's nose", and as a result, someone asked me what kind of demand is insufficient in terms of insufficient effective demandI think in the end, it may be a lack of consumer demand. Because investment is ultimately for consumption, the ultimate deficiency may be insufficient consumer demand.
So I came up with the idea for a recent survey of consumer products. From January to September, the total economic output was a little more than 91 trillion yuan, and the consumption contribution was 832%。But in fact, I found that consumption is facing the following pressures, that is, the so-called lack of people's desire and ability to consume, so it leads to the inability to consume. If I want to solve this problem, we need to solve the problem of how to increase people's income and how to increase it significantly in the future, so as to solve the problem of people's lack of desire and ability to spend.
I thought, are there a few areas of work that can be done?
First, it is necessary to continue to play the role of fiscal policy and monetary policy. This year's fiscal policy has reduced taxes and fees by more than 1 trillion yuanMonetary policy we made a provision to reduce mortgage interest from 61% down to 4About 1%. These two policies have virtually increased people's expectations and increased a certain amount of consumable income. Is there room for anything else in this area next year?One thing we should do is to continue to play the role of fiscal policy and monetary policy.
Second, deepen the reform of the income distribution system. The reform of the income distribution system must be deepened, and there are two main problems. On the one hand, it is necessary to continue to encourage people to become rich, to strengthen people's pursuit of wealth, to further liberalize, and at the same time to expand the proportion of middle income. On the other hand, should we tilt the distribution of national income towards people's livelihood?In recent years, we have done a good job in infrastructure, but should we tilt people's livelihood, such as education, medical care, housing, and so on? Therefore, there are two types of income system reforms, one is to expand the proportion of middle income, and the other is to tilt towards people's livelihood and solve people's worries.
Third, should we appropriately liberalize the leverage ratio for next year?Two figures in leverage are important. The first data is the deficit rate, we have always set the upper limit at 3% in the past, and now that people's consumer confidence is restored, I don't know if it is possible to put the upper limit of the deficit rate at 4%. If we go from 3% to 4% of the deficit ratio, I think it will help a lot with consumption.
The second data is the macro debt ratio, which is the proportion of the common debt of enterprises and individuals to the total GDP. In the past, there was an unwritten rule that the macro debt ratio could not exceed 250% in principle, which was the upper limit. Whether it can be raised to 350% next year will not bring too much debt risk.
In terms of leverage ratio, although we emphasize risk prevention, can we consider the current situation and appropriately raise the two main data upwards, whether the maximum deficit ratio can reach 4%, and whether the macro debt ratio can reach about 350%, which may still have a lot of effects on consumption. Improving people's desire to consume and spending power, these three things we can still do, may be meaningful next year.
The second pressure on consumption is housing consumption, which accounts for a high proportion of consumption. Now our policy should be very in place, the policy is very strong, there are two factors affecting housing consumption, one is the policy factor, the other is the market factor. The policy factors are indeed in place, but the market factors have changed.
Another phenomenon is that all real estate developers have to change their operating mode, and the sales model has collapsed, the market has changed, and all real estate developers have to change their operating mode. In addition, the investment properties of the house weakened. It takes time to solve the problems of the real estate market, and we need to digest some things slowly to solve them. My view is that you can't rush it. FYI. Thank you!