This week ushered in a wide range of cooling weather, which boosted pork consumption, the southern centralized pickling activities were opened, the slaughtering enterprises started to improve, and the pig spot and **market resonated**. However, with the acceleration of the pace of slaughter at the end of the year, the market pressure is still prominent, and the space for pig prices is still limited.
This week ushered in a wide range of cooling weather, which brought a positive boost to downstream pork consumption, and the curing activities in the south also increased significantly, and the start of slaughtering enterprises increased. Driven by this, this Tuesday's **sharply** and in the market ** is now up and down, bringing a boost to the market, the breeding end of the homeopathic price rise, the market has a stage**. As of the 15th, the average price of three-yuan pigs slaughtered outside the country was 1471 yuan kg, 1356 yuan kg cumulative increase of 115 yuan kg, an increase of 848%, a gratifying short-term increase (framed below).
Although the southern concentrated pickling has just started, but after the continuous decline in the early stage, the market seems to be bullish confidence is not enough, the breeding end is also actively slaughtering, Friday's rally has slowed down, some areas have shown signs of falling, and the expected demand increase is still difficult to offset with the pressure.
The cooling weather stimulates consumption, and the start of construction increases
This week's slaughter run rate was 3590%, an increase of 1 from last week59 percentage points, a year-on-year increase of **553%, continuing to be better than the same period last year. At present, the operating rate has increased for the eighth consecutive week, and the operating rate is second only to the level before the Spring Festival in early January, and is currently at a seasonal high.
Changes in the operating rate of domestic slaughterhouses in the 50th week of 2023.
In terms of regions, this week, the start of construction in the north increased and decreased, and the increase was small, while the south generally improved, and the increase was relatively obvious, which was the main driving force for the increase in slaughtering start this week.
The Northeast region started to start steadily, some of them have a slight increase, the white strip is mainly sold, the price difference between inside and outside is small, the export is limited, and it is difficult to start the construction, but the central and southern white strips have increased significantly, and the sales volume outside the Northeast may gradually increase in the later period.
The operating rate in North China continued to maintain a moderate increase, and the temperature in North China dropped widely this week, and the rigid demand in the north improved, and the terminal enema increased, driving the operating rate to increase.
This week, the central and southwest regions started to improve the most obvious, this week the temperature has dropped to 10 degrees, the southern pickling activities have been opened on a large scale, in addition, with the improvement of the peripheral white strips, export orders have also increased, domestic sales and export sales to the start of a better drive.
The temperature is still low next week, which is conducive to the continuation of the good situation in demand, and the normal pickling will reach its peak on the winter solstice (December 22) next week, and is expected to last until the end of the month, and the operating rate of slaughterhouses will remain medium to high in the near future.
The breeding end has a better price recognition, and the market pig source is sufficient
Although the downstream demand has improved this week, the overall pressure on the breeding has not been reduced, the phenomenon of competition for slaughter at the breeding end is still prominent, and the progress of the slaughter of the early scale farm has been slow.
According to the survey, the first price recognition slaughter is more obvious, first, the southern pickled meat is expected to give a limited boost to the market, the standard fertilizer spread does not increase but falls, and the average price of the national standard fat pig spread this week is -051 yuan kg, compared with last week's narrow range adjustment spread narrowed by 005 yuan kg, **continue to press the bar to face the risk of loss expansion;Second, although there are more first-class de-industrialization in the early stage, the de-industrialization of large-scale farms is smaller, the de-production capacity is slower, the medium-term pig source is under great pressure, and the market confidence is insufficient. Third, in 2023, the breeding end will almost always be losing money, cash flow will continue to tighten, and the capital chain will be under pressure at the end of the year.
The profits of slaughtering enterprises have not yet turned around, and it is more difficult to keep up with the rising pig prices.
This week, the woolly pig ** stopped falling **, and the white strip ** also appeared to a certain **, as of December 15, the national average price of white strip was 1885 yuan kg, lower **637%, an increase slightly less than that of hairy pigs**. Although the demand has improved, but on the whole, the white strip *** is not mainly driven by demand, more is driven by the pig price passive, the gross white price difference has not expanded significantly, and the slaughter of the white strip gross profit loss of 3856 yuan, still continuing to lose money.
From the actual situation, after the increase in orders from slaughtering enterprises this week, the general increase in start-up, the increase in pork **, the industry volume, market competition has not weakened, the white strip ** range is limited, and the white strip in some areas even loosened on Friday, and then the manufacturer can only reduce the price of pigs again, forming resistance to the upward movement of pig prices.
To sum up, as the temperature drops, consumption in the north and south have increased, and the southern pickling that has been looking forward to has been fully opened, and it is expected that the decline will continue until the end of the month. Decide the pig price direction more or from the end, at the end of the breeding end sprint task is heavier, large pigs began to actively slaughter, the price difference is not large, the willingness to pressure the fence is not strong, the price of the pig is positive, the increase in demand is difficult to offset the pressure increase, it is expected that the pig price space is limited, and the end of the year will still maintain a weak situation.