2023 is coming to an end, and this year's ** is really complicated and difficult to summarize in one sentence. The ** of foreign countries seems to be open, and it has risen happily, and the ** of many countries has hit a record high. But our A-shares are not so lucky, the main indexes, such as the Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index, have all fallen sharply, and they have been green all year round.
Especially at the end of August, some favorable policies were introduced, such as reducing stamp duty, but A-shares are still all the way down, and even now they are still below 3,000 points. This makes many investors' hearts cool by half, and this year's ** makes everyone quite disappointed, and I can only hope that next year will be better.
As for next year's trend, a recent high-level meeting released some important information, which I think has some implications for next year's general trend.
Looking at the chart above, the situation this year is quite different from last year's**. I'll analyze it from the perspective of **
First of all, the overall strategy is to "seek progress while maintaining stability". This means that the offensive may be the best defense, and there may be more stimulus than expected financially. For **, it is good news to stabilize the market by attacking the market.
Fiscal and monetary policies are more precise and effective than last year, which actually reflects structural problems in the economy. But I think the key is the Fed's interest rate hike policy, and if the US starts cutting interest rates next year and China's CPI is still negative like it was in November, then the PBOC may follow suit.
The policy emphasizes scientific and technological innovation. This shows that in industrial upgrading and transformation, science and technology have always been the top priority. For **, next year may be a big year for technology stocks, such as artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, intelligent driving and other fields may usher in an explosion.
The focus is on creating a virtuous circle between consumption and investment. If investment is understood as investment in the capital market, this is a huge benefit. I also said before that if you do a good job, everyone's wallet will bulge, and you will naturally be more willing to consume, and then you can feed back to the listed company, and the performance will grow, forming a virtuous circle.
As for the fifth point, I won't say much, the sixth point emphasizes risk management, and the main risks to China's economy are real estate and urban investment bonds. If these two problems can be solved, the others are minor. As for the ** risk, if you can operate according to the strategy of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", then the risk is not a problem.
Finally, compared to last year, there is a new formulation of "improving social expectations". I think Moody's has recently downgraded the credit ratings of China and Hong Kong from stable to negative, and downgraded many Chinese companies, like a mad dog, in an attempt to change expectations of China at home and abroad.
Therefore, only by resolutely pulling the ** up can we really change everyone's expectations. Otherwise, if everyone loses money in **, people's expectations will definitely not improve. People need tangible benefits, not just empty words.