Data News Editor: Chen Hualuo New**Design: Miao Qihui Proofreader: Wu Xingfa.
For those who have lived in first-tier cities for a long time, any house-related information will attract strong attention, whether it is a change in the down payment for a home purchase or a rise or fall in rental rents.
Recently, the topic of rent diving in first-tier cities has been on the hot search, and related content shows that with the cooling of the real estate industry, the rental market in first-tier cities has cooled. According to a ** report, the landlord in Zhoupu Kangqiao, Shanghai, originally rented a single room with a monthly rent of 8,500 yuan for 3 months, and the price was reduced to 7,000 yuan before it was rented out.
Compared with the strong demand for rental housing in the graduation season every year, the rental market in November and December is entering the traditional off-season. For those who are considering changing homes, looking for a home during this season may be a good option. However, some people said that they did not feel the drop in rent, and they did not have friends who rented cheap houses around them.
Why is there a disconnect between the data level and real life?Have rents been lowered or not, and which cities have fallen?Is now the right time to rent?Let's look at the data to see what's going on.
Rent in large and medium-sized cities across the country**.
First-tier cities saw the largest decline.
On November 20, Mr. Tang in Chaoyang District, Beijing, put a two-bedroom house in Lishuiqiao on the intermediary platform, and after hanging the house, more than a dozen tenants consulted, and 2 people visited the house on the spot, but the transaction has not yet been completed. Although it has only been on the shelves for 3 days, the tenants are not highly motivated to see the property, and Mr. Tang's monthly rent expectation has dropped from 6,800 yuan to 6,300 yuan.
It's off-season, the flow of people is small, and the surrounding houses are not easy to rent. Mr. Tang said to **.
In fact, not only Beijing, this situation is in many cities, after the peak of rental in the graduation season has passed, the rental market in many cities has begun to enter the off-season, with the characteristics of increasing inventory, insufficient new demand, rent, and longer transaction cycles.
Industry data shows that the average rental price listed in large and medium-sized cities across the country in November 2023 is 3537 yuan square meters month, month-on-month **059%, a year-on-year increase of **025%。On the whole, the housing rents in November were both year-on-year and month-on-month**, and the rental market entered the off-season.
According to past experience, the month is the peak leasing season, after which the rent enters the downward channel. However, according to the analysis of the real estate market, as the employment direction of college graduates has gradually shifted from first-tier cities to popular second- and third-tier cities this year, driven by the activity of the rental market in some second- and third-tier cities, the overall rent trend of the market has stabilized, and the market peak season has "moved back", that is, the date of rent decline has been postponed to November.
The industry estimates that under the influence of seasonal factors, the release of leasing demand has decreased, and rents may continue to decline in December. From this point of view, December is a good time to rent.
If divided by city level, the rental market is more specific. Since November, all cities of all levels have entered the off-season of leasing, and the average rent price has declined across the board. Specifically, although the average rent in the first-tier cities is the highest, 866 yuan per square meter per month, but the decline was also the highest among the four grades, with a year-on-year increase of **148%, down 083%。
Unlike the decline in first- and second-tier cities, rents in third- and fourth-tier cities increased year-on-year. First of all, the rents in the third and fourth-tier cities are already at a low level and relatively stable, and secondly, since the second half of the year, driven by the employment demand of graduates "returning to their hometowns", the rent performance of the third- and fourth-tier cities has been stronger than that of the first- and second-tier cities, with an average of 24 in the third and fourth-tier cities in November5 yuan square meter month, an increase of 1 compared with the same period in previous years19%。
There are 40 major cities in the country.
3 4 rents have fallen.
The rents in the three first-tier cities of Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen are the highest among the 40 major cities in China, with a monthly rent of more than 90 yuan per square meter, while Guangzhou is the lowest among the four first-tier cities, and the rent is almost the same as that of Hangzhou. According to the average rent in Shanghai in November, the rent of a 50-square-meter house is about 4,965 yuan. In Guangzhou, it costs 2955 yuan.
In November, among the 40 large and medium-sized cities in the country, the average rent price of 7 cities was month-on-month**, 2 cities were the same as the previous month, and the average rent price of the remaining 31 cities decreased to varying degrees. From the perspective of the 7 cities that are the first month, they are all second-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities, but the increase is less than 1%, of which Taiyuan has the highest increase, and the average rent price in November is 2204 yuan square meter month, month-on-month **087%, year-on-year **551%
Although rents in Changzhou, Fuzhou and Foshan have risen this month, they are significantly lower than the rents in the same period last year.
From the perspective of the first range, the rent level in Chengdu fell by 2 month-on-month37% ranked first, Sanya and Shijiazhuang ranked second and third, but the average rent price in the three cities was higher than the same period last year, especially Sanya, although it decreased from October, but compared with the same period last year, it was still **707%, similar to Yantai and Jinan, the rent has appeared year-on-year**.
Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the four first-tier cities, whether it is month-on-month or year-on-year, have all appeared, and as of November, the average rent price of the four cities has shown a "three consecutive declines" month-on-month, a year-on-year "five consecutive declines", and the average rent prices in the four cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have all declined for three consecutive months.
The decline in the rental market is inextricably linked to both supply and demand. From the perspective of population data, at the end of 2022, the permanent population of the four first-tier cities all declined, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou each decreasing by 4 compared with the previous year30,000 people, 13540,000 people, 7650,000 people, with a permanent population of 1,766 in Shenzhen180,000, a decrease of 1 from 2021980,000 people. This is also the first time that Shenzhen has experienced negative growth in permanent population since its establishment.
The population on the demand side is flowing out, but the supply side is not less. According to the "Report on the Development of China's Housing Rental Market in the Third Quarter of 2023", from January to September this year, the rental inventory of 40 cities across the country increased year-on-year, and the rental inventory of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou increased year-on-year. 6% and 164%。In Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Central China, Shanghai has the largest increase in leasing**.
Rent is the primary consideration for young people when renting.
According to the data of the 2022 National Statistical Bulletin, the per capita consumption expenditure of residents in 2022 will be 24,538 yuan, of which 7,481 yuan will be spent on food, tobacco and alcohol, accounting for 305%, followed by residential consumption, with an expenditure of 5,882 yuan, accounting for 24%, and residential consumption increased by nearly 2,000 yuan compared with 2017, and the proportion also increased.
Food, housing, transportation, entertainment and shopping are the main aspects of consumption, and excessive residential consumption will inevitably affect other consumption expenditures, especially the development of enjoyment expenditures, which is not conducive to the consumption structure.
According to a survey on young people's considerations for renting, rent** is the most concerned factor for young people when renting, with a concern rate of 622%, followed by commuting time, with a concern of 603%, and the proportion of both has reached more than 60%.
Some industry insiders said that generally speaking, the rent-to-income ratio has a "** segmentation" point, that is, the ratio of rent to income is less than 30% in the range of happiness, and if the proportion exceeds 30%, the economic pressure brought by rent will have an impact on the happiness of life.
In first-tier cities, more and more young people will choose to rent according to their own financial situation and budget**, and reduce the cost of rent by choosing to share or short-term rental, and adapt to their lifestyle and economic situation more flexibly.
And what about you?How much does it cost to rent a house in your city?
Reference: 21st Century Business Herald ""The intermediary is too rolly"!In first-tier cities, rents have dropped
Zhuge Technology's "Rent in Large and Medium-sized Cities in November Nationwide, All Cities of All Levels Entered the "Off-Season" for Leasing".
Duty Editor: Li plus or minus.