Text Xu Gucheng:
Under the market's widespread expectation that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is over and the interest rate cut cycle is coming, the world's best is rising, but Big A is a maverick and sleeping, let it wind in the southeast and northwest, and I will not move. 3000 points of the defense battle**, the Bull Demon King has to plow two miles of land before he is willing to let go. Against the global market continues, it is a big joke to blame foreign investors for continuing to short, and it is inseparable from the domestic short-selling forces.
Therefore, diversification is extremely important, and all eggs must not be put in the same basket. Some international varieties such as foreign exchange market, oil and so on are choices. In the international market, the main line of logic is inevitably inseparable from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment, and the author shared one of the important reasons for Powell's ** turn, in fact, the author believes that it may also be related to the movement of the Bank of Japan.
Recently, market volatility such as gold, silver, and oil has risen, and risks and opportunities coexist, and the market is trading the expectation of the timing and magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cut, rather than the event itself. Share the latest insights in conjunction with technical analysis, including possible trajectory, timeline, latest dynamic resistance and support distribution:
Today's Monday** overall volatility is not large, the lowest in the morning is around 2015, the highest in the European session is around 2027, and it continues to maintain consolidation around 2020. Judging from the trend, it is a pity that today's European market failed to rise above 2030 in one go. Because as long as it rises above 2030, then ** will return to the bullish trend. However, if it remains below 2030 for now, it is likely that it will fall back to new lows.
*From the hourly chart: **There is a probability of five waves at the moment**, because the bottom of the current wave is here at 2030, **if it is said to stand above 2030, then the bears do not exist. However, if it remains below 2030 now, it is very likely that the market will come out of the fifth wave. So you must not be overly bullish tonight, if you say that you stand above 2030, then it is no problem to be bullish. It's just that it is currently below 2030, so you must be careful about the possibility of diving. For the current operation, I can't tell you for sure for the time being, but if the U.S. market opens, it will remain below 2025, or even below 2020. Then I suggest that you can open a short position directly in the 2020-25 range. The target below is the 2010 and 2000 levels. (The above content is original by Xu Gucheng, and his personal views are for reference only).
Written by: Xu Gucheng Publication date: 202312.18