Currently,HogsThe market is ushering in a wave of recovery. RecentlyHogsThe contract is substantialHogsSpot** also continued to rise. The recovery is related to widespread snowfall in the north and the gradual improvement in pork demand. However, the market still needs to be vigilant against the pressure on pig prices due to factors such as supply pressure and high frozen product inventory, so we need to be cautiously optimistic about the best space.
On December 13th,HogsA number of contracts rose significantly, including the 2401 contract in the near month, the 2403 contract approached the 15,000 yuan ton mark, and the 2,405 contract in the far month rose to 15,820 yuan in the highest amount. At the same time,HogsSpot marketIt also continued the upward trend over the weekendAgricultureThe Ministry of Rural Affairs monitors the countryWholesale market for agricultural productsThe average pork is 1989 yuan kg, compared with the previous day**03%。Experts explained that this wave of recovery stems from widespread snowfall in the north and signs of improving pork demand.
According to analysis, the frequent outbreaks of swine fever before have led to the spread of pessimism in the market**Oversold. However, the weather with continuous snowfall in the northern region has recently been givenHogsSlaughter has brought some resistance, and at the same time, the demand for pork after cooling has also rebounded, which makesSpot marketThe sentiment has improved significantly, which has promoted the ** of the futures price first.
Despite the signs of recovery in the market, there are still some issues on the supply side. According to the data, according to the data released by the Ganglian, the slaughter plan of breeding enterprises in November increased by 3 month-on-month86%, with an actual completion rate of 10377%, and the inventory of frozen products is also at a high level. This means that the supply pressure is still increasing years ago, and the frozen product inventory has exerted a certain amount of pressure.
In addition, although the news of pig diseases in different places has a certain impact, it is doubtful whether the number of standard pigs is enough to offset the increase in slaughter at the end of the year. In addition, due to the narrowing of the standard fertilizer spread, it has also weakened the willingness to fatten twice. In addition, a new round of rain and snow weather is coming, although the amount will be reduced in the short term, which has a certain supporting effect on pig prices, but it is also necessary to pay attention to the fact that the market may face a large number of pig sources after smooth transportation, which will have an impact on the market.
From the perspective of consumption,HogsConsumption generally increases gradually from mid-November. Consumption has improved as the weather has cooled. According to the data of domestic slaughtering enterprises, as of December 11, the slaughtering operating rate was 36%, and the slaughter volume increased by 4% year-on-year99%。So, from the current point of view,HogsSupply and demandFundamentalsShowing a trend of "strong supply and demand", the rise and fall will depend on whether the demand side can withstand the increment of the first end.
However, this year by the subjectEl NiñoImpact, the domestic weather cooled late, resulting in weak support for pickled meat demand. Although the pickling season has begun, it is difficult for follow-up consumption to improve significantly, and the support for ** is limited.
To sum up, in the short termHogsThe market is in the process of repairing the gradual improvement of demand, but the supply pressure still exists, and the market needs to be wary of the high supply baseThe impact of the large pigs waiting for the slaughter before the year and the high inventory of frozen products. Therefore, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic about the space above. ForHogsIt is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of spot *** and wait for follow-up market guidance.
Currently,HogsThe market is ushering in a wave of recovery. RecentlyHogsThe contract is substantialHogsSpot** also continued to rise. This wave of warming is related to the widespread snowfall in the north and the gradual improvement in pork demand. However, the market still needs to be vigilant against the pressure on pig prices due to factors such as supply pressure and high frozen product inventory, so we need to be cautiously optimistic about the best space. As the weather turns colder,HogsSupply and demandFundamentalsShowing a trend of "strong supply and demand", the rise and fall will depend on whether the demand side can withstand the increment of the first end.
But due to the subjectEl NiñoImpact, follow-up consumption is difficult to have a significant improvement, and the support for ** is limited. To sum up, in the short termHogsThe market is in the process of repairing the gradual improvement of demand, and the supply pressure still exists, and the market needs to be vigilant against the high supply baseThe impact of the large pigs waiting for the slaughter before the year and the high inventory of frozen products. ForHogsIt is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of spot *** and wait for follow-up market guidance.