On 26 December, the situation in Myanmar continued to develop, and the operation of the 55th Light Infantry Division of the Burmese Army to reinforce Kokang Lao Cai was underway. According to sources, the strength of the three battalions totaled 180 people, of which about half were killed in the battle, and the remaining half chose to surrender. At the same time, an airborne unit of the Burmese army was also besieged by the Allied forces and suffered heavy losses. After the war, the Allied forces showed a humanitarian attitude towards the captured Burmese army, bandaging wounds and providing living supplies and severance pay. At present, the Allied forces have taken control of nearly 95% of Lao Cai, clearing the Burmese army of routs and surrenderers, and Nam Tien Mun Mountain is the last Burmese stronghold.
In addition, the situation of the eight families of Lao Cai has attracted widespread attention. It is reported that at present, the allied forces have captured Wei San and Li Fushou alive, while Bai Suocheng, Liu Abao, Wei Huairen and others are missing. According to the information disclosed by Li Fushou, hundreds of militia forces led by Bai Socheng and his son have broken through the siege and are fleeing in the direction of the Thai border. However, they were spotted by Confederate drones, who had sent elite detachments in pursuit and news was expected soon. As for Liu Abao and Wei Huairen, they may have gone into hiding or been transferred by the Burmese army. In this situation, the second peace talks between the parties in northern Myanmar have become the focus.
According to the news, the Myanmar military ** took the initiative to start peace talks in advance, and it was held at a conference center in Kunming on December 26. The Allies responded by accepting the time and place of the negotiations. However, many people have reservations about the peace talks, believing that the losses on the battlefield will hardly be compensated for at the negotiating table. Min Aung Hlaing's eagerness to negotiate is partly due to the Burmese army's successive defeats in northern Myanmar, and even in battles with the Arakan Army, the Kachin Army and the People's Defence Forces. Continued fighting could lead to the collapse of Min Aung Hlaing's regime. On the other hand, the Tatmadaw has some chips in its hands that are interested in China, such as the main leaders of the Lao Cai wire fraud family and the Chinese wire fraud personnel they control. Therefore, the Burmese army can use this as a condition to ask China to exert pressure to bring about an early end to the war in Myanmar and maintain political stability. However, there are doubts about whether China will accept Min Aung Hlaing's terms, and everything depends on the reasonableness of the conditions.
If the Burmese army is overthrown, the most likely person to come to power is Aung San Suu Kyi, and this is the ideal situation for the United States and Western countries. The Kachin Army is a national armed force that has long received assistance from the United States and Western countries, speaks English well and is equipped with a full set of American style**. At present, however, the Allied forces are still weak, holding at best a small part of their territory in northern Burma. It is also inferior to the Wa State Army, which has no national base. In Myanmar, where the Burmese population makes up 68 per cent of the total population, Min Aung Hlaing and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's support is based on the Burmese people. The People's Protection Forces, a predominantly Burmese ethnic force, have more than 50,000 troops and are supported by the United States and Western countries. Therefore, at present, the Myanmar military must still maintain power, otherwise it will create opportunities for the United States.
Through the description of the war situation in northern Myanmar, we can see the complexity of the conflict and the game between the various forces. On the battlefield, the Burmese army retreated one after another, and the Allied forces gradually took control of the Lao Cai area, which made Min Aung Hlaing feel the crisis and forced him to seek reconciliation in advance. However, there are still doubts as to whether lasting peace can be achieved through peace talks. The Tatmadaw has some bargaining chips that China is interested in, which could be used as capital for their negotiations. Due to the weak ethnic armed forces in northern Myanmar, the game between the Tatmadaw and the Chinese-backed Aung San Suu Kyi has become key. For China, whether or not to accept the conditions of the Tatmadaw depends on whether these conditions are too harsh. Against this backdrop, the Myanmar military still needs to remain in power in order to avoid creating opportunities for the United States. Overall, the dynamics of the war in northern Myanmar remain uncertain, and the development of the situation and the political game between the parties will continue to be a source of concern. It is only through the efforts and prudence of all parties that long-term peace and stability can be brought to Myanmar.