Key takeaways:
First of all, the short length of the article means that it is not advisable to over-interpret this release. Secondly, the Politburo is short, and the economic work conference after it will often be longer, which means that this year's ** economic work conference may have a longer length and contain more policy details. (For example, the 2012 Politburo was particularly long, and the Economic Work Conference was very short.)The Politburo in 2020 was also very short, and the Economic Work Conference was relatively long). In recent years, when studying economic work, we have observed a gradual trend of "simplification of the draft of the Politburo meeting + refinement of the draft of the economic work conference".
The term "establish first and then break" was first proposed by the Politburo in 2021 in the context of promoting dual control of energy consumption. If understood narrowly (only from the perspective of energy consumption), the goal of the 14th Five-Year Plan is to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by 13 in 5 years5 percentage points, the first three years only accumulated a decrease of about 3 percentage points, the next two years need to reduce a total of 10 percentage points, the difficulties are prominentIt is expected that the caliber will be adjusted or reassessed, in line with the idea of first standing and then breaking;If understood broadly (from the perspective of all industries that have both old and new transformative industries),It is expected that the destruction of the "old" will slow down in the short term, and the "new" will be acceleratedto avoid dragging down the total economic growth rate and social expectations.
Key takeaways:
November CPISignificantly lower than market expectationsBehind this is the fact that the core CPI is weaker than seasonal due to three factors. The weakness in the core CPI reflects the current weak aggregate demand in the economy and the supply-demand imbalance in the midstream manufacturing sector。Therefore, the basic policy orientation of stabilizing growth next year remains unchanged, but it is also necessary to "form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other" to avoid further deterioration of the supply and demand pattern in the future.
Low prices also mean our countryThe dilemma of "low nominal policy rate, high real policy rate" remains。Therefore, the basic policy orientation of steady growth next year has not changed, and it is necessary to drive the private sector to expand demand and credit through the first force, gradually promote a moderate recovery in prices, and get rid of the "two-way" dilemma of interest rates. In the process of policy implementation, in order to avoid the current expansion of demand may further deteriorate the future supply and demand pattern, it is also necessary to "form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other".
Key takeaways:
The "flaw" in the number of new non-farm payrolls is that the strike disturbance and the new private non-farm payrolls are less than expected. On the one hand, strikes in the automobile, film and sound recording industries subsided, adding a total of 470 thousand. After excluding these two industries,New non-farm payrollsAbout 1520,000, down from 18 in October80,000 and the average of 210,000 in the previous three monthsStill slowing down。On the other hand, the number of new jobs in the private sector came in at 150,000, below market expectations of 1590,000, the side also shows that the part that exceeds expectations comes more from the new jobs in the ** sector.
The "blemish" of the pullback in the unemployment rate is that, although 0The 2 percentage point decline is the largest decline since September last year, butThis is likely to be mainly due to the contraction of labor supply(Unemployed youth and women over 20 years of age exit the labour market).
Key takeaways:
Looking ahead, according to the pace of excess savings consumption in the past two to three years, the excess savings of the U.S. residential sector are expected to support about 2-3 quarters as of 2023Q3. On the fiscal front, the 2024 U.S. deficit ratio of the CBO in May 2023** remained at 5At a high level of about 8%, although the budget for fiscal year 2024 has not yet been implemented, the probability of a significant contraction of fiscal policy in the first year is not expected to be high. In terms of capital expenditure, the U.S. "three-** case" continues to support the process of restructuring the U.S. industrial chain, but it is worth noting that the industries returning to the United States are dominated by high-tech industries such as electronic computers, due to the high cost of manufacturing, the path of low-end manufacturing to Mexico, India, Vietnam and other places may be smoother, considering the constraints of the high interest rate environment on corporate capital expenditure, the support of corporate capital expenditure on the economy in 2024 may be limited.
Therefore, given the overall health of the balance sheets of US households and the corporate sector, as well as the lagged impact of the high interest rate environment, the probability of a mild recession in the second half of 2024 is increasing, given the fiscal continuity, excess savings may continue to be supported into the first half of 2024, and the support of corporate capital expenditure may be limited.
Key takeaways:
For the full year, we expect the issuance of Treasury bonds for the whole of 2024 to be 1033 trillion, net financing 430 trillion, year-on-year in 202310%；The scale of local bond issuance is 796-8.16 trillion, net financing 494-5.14 trillion, a year-on-year increase of -14 in 202338%--12.23%、-30.36%--27.55%；The issuance scale of government and financial bonds is 657 trillion, net financing 266 trillion;12. year-on-year in 202391%-47.79%。
At present, under the uncertainty of the supply of interest rate bonds in the first quarter, the short-term end is suppressed, so it is recommended to wait and see on the left side for the time being and maintain a cautious point.
Key takeaways:
Looking forward to next year, on the basis of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", this Politburo meeting has refined and added the expression of "promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking down", and generally elaborated on how to achieve progress while maintaining stability, which is further clear than the previous continuation of the policy tone. "Promoting stability with progress" indicates that the policy force is still relatively active, and maintaining the necessary economic growth is still the policy requirement, and it is reasonably estimated that 5There is a high probability of GDP growth of around 0%.
The word in 2021 **Economic Work Conference**, compared with some previous policy adjustments, "break" is given priority to "stand", causing problems such as debt risks of real estate enterprises, this meeting will "stand" in a more important position, under the transformation of new and old kinetic energy, we must give priority to the establishment of new kinetic energy, and then transform the old kinetic energy, and still need to pay attention to a smooth transition in the reform process. This has laid the tone that will not simply take the old road, the policy has a bottom line, and the flexibility and space for the upward adjustment of the corresponding market are also limited, after all, under the current macro picture, the "standing" side is not achieved overnight.
After the release of the press release of the Politburo meeting in December, the overall market yield fell slightly, and the bearish sentiment in the market may have weakened. Under the "enhanced consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation", the active fiscal policy still needs to be effectively coordinated by a prudent and loose monetary policy, and the risk of a sharp rise in interest rates is relatively limited.