Key takeaways:
The key words for the real estate market in 2023 are clearance, support and risk prevention:
1) Real estate sales will continue to decline in 2023, but the decline will be narrower than that in 2022, and the actual decline in commercial housing sales in 22 years after base adjustment will be about 30%, and the decline is expected to be about 15% in 23 years
2) Since August 2023, the relaxation of real estate sales policies in various cities has accelerated, which has played a certain role in supporting the sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities
3) **After the financial work conference, real estate risk prevention has also entered the stage of accelerating the landing.
Looking forward to 2024, the above logic will continue, and the construction of commercial housing will still face certain pressure;However, the incremental investment opportunities brought by the new real estate development model are more worthy of attention, with an average annual investment scale of more than 1 trillion yuan, and the decline in real estate investment in 24 years is expected to be significantly narrowed.
Key takeaways:
Recently, driven by policy care and the gradual restoration of endogenous momentum, the economic factors of economic recovery have accumulated and increased. Looking ahead to 2024, the economic recovery process will continue, domestic demand may be better than external demand, and GDP is expected to grow by about 5%. From the troika point of view, the resilience of manufacturing investment is good, and the infrastructure investment under the support of policies is moderate, to a certain extent, to hedge the drag of the downturn in real estate investment on the investment side, and the manufacturing inventory cycle is expected to make up for the three major projectsThe repair of household balance sheets and the rebound in inflation will help residents' consumer confidence to recover
Exports tended to fall in the first half of the year under the impact of a high base and a recession in external demand, but in the second half of the year, major overseas central banks tended to cut interest rates or help the margin of external demand**. From the policy side, in order to consolidate the foundation for recovery, the issuance of additional trillion treasury bonds at the end of 2023, the early approval of local bonds in 2024, and the implementation of a package of debt plans will warm up the recovery in 2024.
In addition, inflation will be moderately repaired in 2024It provides the possibility of further policy easing。With the recovery of the price index, nominal GDP growth is expected to exceed 1 percentage point from 2023, and corporate earnings growth is expected to continue to improve.
Key takeaways:
What was the liquidity gap during the year?From the perspective of capital supply and demand, it is expected that in December this year, fiscal deposits will decrease by about 840 billion yuan month-on-month, MO will increase by about 360 billion yuan month-on-month, the scale of payment may be 180 billion yuan, and the proportion of foreign exchange will increase by about 20 billion yuan month-on-month. Overall, excluding reverse repo and MLF expiration factorsThere was no liquidity gap in DecemberThe funds in the banking system remained basically stable, and the supply and demand of funds were better than in October and November.
Key takeaways:
Looking ahead to 2024, the overall net financing amount of perpetual bonds is likely to remain low as the SASAC requires central enterprises to strictly control the proportion of perpetual bonds. In April 2023, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) issued the Administrative Measures for the Issuance of ** Enterprise Bonds, which clearly stated that "the proportion of perpetual bonds in the net assets of enterprises shall be strictly controlled in accordance with relevant regulations, and the scale of perpetual bonds shall be reasonably controlled. Therefore, the net supply of perpetual bonds of central enterprises may be relatively limited, and it will also be an asset shortage pattern, which will help to compress the spread of varieties.
Key takeaways:
At the end of the year, credit may increase the pressure on payment requirements, ** the structural friction of bond issuance still exists, in addition, the seasonal consumption of currency issuance and non-gold deposits has increased, and the easing of funds is facing more disturbances.
1) In terms of rigid gaps, in December, credit was put in front, general deposits rebounded month-on-month, and the consumption of excess reserves may be around 200 billion yuan27 trillion reverse repo**, MLF maturity scale around 650 billion yuan, the scale is relatively large.
2) In terms of exogenous shocks, the absorption or seasonal increase of currency issuance will increase to 400 billion yuan, and the excess consumption of non-bank deposits will be 200 billion yuan.
3) Among the fiscal factors, in December, close to the trillion scale of additional treasury bonds to be issued, considering that the pace of fiscal expenditure at the end of the year has accelerated, it is expected that the replenishment of ** deposits for excess reserves will be about 900 billion yuan, but because the expenditure is mainly concentrated at the end of the year, it is still necessary to pay attention to the disturbance of the centralized issuance stage.
Key takeaways:
* The disturbance of debt supply to the capital side still exists: in December, the first debt may continue to exert force, and it is expected that the net financing of national bonds in December will be about 880 billion yuan, the net financing of local bonds will be about 260 billion yuan, and the net financing scale of ** bonds will still be more than one trillion yuan. Year-end credit or crowding out liquidity: Recent regulatory requirements to "coordinate the credit work at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, moderately smooth credit fluctuations", it is estimated that the recovery momentum of credit delivery in December may be enhanced, crowding out liquidity, in addition, banks are facing MPA assessment at the end of the year, and the willingness of large banks to finance may be further weakened.
Combined with the current macro environment, we estimate that the RRR cut window between December this year and January next year will still be in place to ease the pressure on banks' net interest margins, liabilities and liquidity, and escort credit allocation at the end of this year and early next year. At the same time, under the issue of idling arbitrage, there is still the possibility of increasing the open market to protect the liquidity of the New Year's Eve in December, especially considering that there is more room for currency operation early next yearThe probability of a RRR cut occurring early next year may be higher.